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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
Or the delays in testing and/or laboratory testing is getting worse and/or resources are being redirected to retests. The next few days will give a small clue as testing places in South Florida are closed; will there be a significant decline in tests reported?
The early indication from the model for August is
Florida deaths - 7.500
US deaths - 45,000
Day 200k US fatalities reached - September 1st (reported 9/2)
Is this an official Vegas line?...
It makes me uncomfortable to call it an over/under when you speak of people losing their lives.
I get it - you do numbers, and their awesome and I appreciate it. We all do. Can we do a different term, maybe? It might be just me, so I apologize for being oversensitive if so.
@Canedawg2140 Duly noted and changed accordingly. Apologies
Just adding my current frustrating experience from NY (northern Westchester County): testing results turnaround are currently stated as 5-8 days at some places and 10-14 days at others. (Rapid test waiting lists are two weeks out).
My Son (very healthy rising UGA Junior) started feeling ill last Sunday evening, he had some fever and a sore throat, was able to get seen by a Dr on Tuesday am and got a test - Dr. assumed he doesn't have Covid as there have been very few new cases up here lately. Son improved rapidly over a few days and has been feeling pretty much 100% for days now, BUT we are still waiting for his results (now 5 days).
He has been holed up in his room for a week and my wife and I feel we have no choice but to behave as if he has it to protect ourselves and others. This to me has driven home the need for better/quicker testing - to get this thing under control AND to help our economy. If someone in a household has (potential) Covid symptoms, we want to know quickly if they have it so they and those exposed to them can isolate and if they don't have it their family members can quickly go back to work (with safeguards), etc. Also assume that long turnarounds will discourage some people from getting tested and those around them will be exposed if they do have it. Uggh!
When is the last time you posted something positive on this thread, @Denmen185 ? I mean, I'm sure somewhere in all of those numbers there are pieces of good news, right? I'm sure it's not all actually doom and gloom.
For example, on the screen shots you just posted, 6 of the 10 states had a lower 7 day positive rate at the end of the month compared to a couple weeks earlier on July 18th. I get that the numbers are still high and some only came down a little, but it's still the right direction. Especially since those were deemed the problem states throughout June and July, I think that deserves a mention.
Just saying, some people might find it refreshing to hear something a little optimistic from time to time.
Someone care to explain why a murderer Serving 84 years to life was released from prison in California due to COVID concerns? This woman shot her boyfriend in the stomach, Shoved him in a trunk and drove 750 Miles, rented a motel room, tied him up in a chair, and left one leg free. The one leg was left free so that he could “stomp for help” or either die. This isn’t about a virus. This is about fear and control.
I have a few teacher friends in Georgia in areas where it's taking close to two weeks for results to come in. They have started practicing for some fall sports and two kids feeling sick at practice, one in football and the other volleyball, caused everyone involved to self isolate until test results came back. Obviously in person learning isn't going to happen if students and teachers have to self isolate for ten days because test results are taking weeks to come in.
Agreed. And my wife teaches elementary school - I don't know how this will work w/o availability of the rapid test. My Son will be heading back down to Athens in just under 2 weeks - assume if he doesn't/didn't have it now he'll get it pretty soon.
The cases in July represent 42% of all cases nationwide since March 1st. In Florida (where I live) the total cases through June 30th was 152, 434. It now stands at 487,132 over 3 times as many in just 33 days. Given the lag in deaths it is difficult to be anything other than realistic about the current situation. It is especially annoying to hear the "optimists" celebrating the turning of the corner due to declining cases when it's either due to unrecognized events or, worse, manufactured ones.
It doesn't help that the Florida Dashboard has been down for 26 hours now.
It could be worse; my stepson is headed to Gainesville for his final semester 🤣🤣
July Florida deaths to date
Deaths reported for July (July2-Aug 1) were 3,472 of which 283 actually related to June (or prior). This showed 3,189 for July. Today an additional 56 deaths were added to July bringing the total to 3.245 so far.
Given that 5 were reported as 8/1 with a total of 62 there was 1 more death that may/may not be July (could be June?)!
Because....California.
@Chambulo It is way too early to sound the all clear imo, but I think most rational and objective people would see some reasons for optimism in FL. Case loads are actually dropping and have been for weeks. But remember, FL's cases were going up exponentially. Down is really good even if it turns out to be leveling in hindsight. There are other metrics that might give us a clue, like testing and hospital data. New testing is down. You could see something nefarious, or as BW pointed out, it could be because less people are showing symptoms due to the disease receding. Therefore, new tests could be dropping. However, FL also tracks a lot of hospital data that might help us, like how many people are showing up at ERs with Covid like symptoms (see below)? How many with cough or shortness of breath? These data are consistent with receding Covid. As I said, it could merely be a pause. Florida is going to bring the kids back to school and I am concerned that could cause another spike in September. The one big negative is that the huge case jump in mid-June will end up causing a large number of fatalities. That will take time to work out because of the lag, so we will probably be dealing with heavy fatalities for a while. The death rate is a lot lower than winter, but it will still be a lot of people. I will paste a few graphs for you to see what I'm talking about:
I agree that it would be ridiculous to sound the all clear at this point. That isn't what I said. I also didn't say we should be "celebrating the turning of the corner."
It just gets tiresome and discouraging to read the same negative (even if realistic) posts over and over. I find it motivating to see cases go down in some states, even if just a little. My state, Arizona, was one of the worst. Cases have been dropping for a couple weeks now though. I know that testing has been up and down and that alone explains some of the reduction in cases, but I don't think it explains all of it. I'm more motivated now to wear a mask than I was a couple weeks ago when it felt like a losing battle.