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Braves Ongoing Season Comments Thread..
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OT of what we have been discussing but I had to take a moment and rewatch the Friday night game listening to the Phillie announcers. I used to love doing this when I had the time to get a feel of what others are saying about the team.
Some serious schadenfreude there too.
Seems like a long time ago when the Phillies were blowing us out opening weekend huh?
I will always maintain that era based stats are flawed, even if park adjusted. They don’t look at how bad the defense is, if he has just had unlucky hit sequencing of certain innings, a really low or high strand rate, a high BABIP against, etc.
As you mention a larger sample size tends to smooth this stuff out.
Do you not think he would be slotted somewhere into our top 3 starters and be a playoff starter?
Yes but some of that would be based on reputation and previous playoff experience.
He just isn't worth it IMO. Not what they are going to ask for anyway as Mr Kasem correctly surmises.
Alright I feel you there. Him not being worth it is an argument I can understand. Idk what they’d want for him honestly, but I am sure there is a team out there that would pay quite a bit for him and we may not want to outbid everyone.
FWIW id love to see what the astros could do with him, after seeing them transform zerlander and Cole.
They're looking for prospects who can play right away as well as a SP who can do the same. With a younger piece thrown in
Price is too high then.
For the Braves, sure. I don't think they're a good match in the sense the Braves won't pay the price the Mets would require.
But considering raw talent, and team control, and general malaise of being owned by the Wilpons, they have to shoot for the moon. Someone will pay it
Would they take someone like Kyle Wright as a “SP who can play right away” and a younger lesser prospect like Justin Dean or Trey Harris? Or are they looking for that package plus another guy who can play right away?
Edit: just saw he is under contract through 2021. I would probably go something like Wright and Contreras +lower level lottery ticket for 2.5 years of Thor.
Thats roughly 62M in terms of prospect surplus value of Wright is a 55 and Contreras a 50. If Syndeguard is valued at 4 WAR/yr that’s around 9.5-10 WAR over the contract. At 8.5M per WAR we will call that 85M of value, minus an estimate of 2.5M this year plus 12 next year plus 18 the year after in arbitration salaries nets Thor a little over 50M in surplus value. So Wright and Contreras would be a little of an overpay, but maybe the Mets value him more as 5 WAR/yr.
I would imagine the price would be higher for a division rival. I don't know enough about the Braves system to comment, but I would say the mets are looking for...
Interesting, we will see how the chips fall.
Kirb, Kirb, Kirb.
As I've said before, with small sample sizes or unusual circumstances like having Coors as your home field ERA can be skewed. In the vast majority of cases it along with the number of innings pitched are the best indicators of a starting pitcher's performance, all other measures are almost useless by comparison.
I feel like all my opinions have been vindicated haha. Any thoughts on this article that just came out?
Interesting read
Still dont want him. From the article:
The trade package necessary to land Syndergaard should be significantly richer than the one the Mets gave up for Stroman, given Syndergaard’s relative track record, age, and the extra season of team control through 2021.
I just dont think he is worth what they are going to want in return. And it might cost the Braves more considering it would be inter division.
I did enjoy the top of the article. The Mets are rebuilding for 2020 etc. When is that not the case?
As an organization, and I am not saying this just because Kasey is a fan, the Mets are a poster child for how not to run a baseball team. They are still on the hook for Cano who plays bad defense and occasionally hits a home run. That is when he is actually in the lineup. They got 4 more years on that deal at about 20+ mil a year.
The Braves typically dont make those types of unforced errors.
If you want to delude yourself into thinking this proves anything knock yourself silly, but it doesn't. I think I was the first to mention Syndergaard in this thread, I stated my opinion that conditionally I'd want to go after him.
I've also made it clear that SHORT TERM advanced analytics can show things that won't show up in ERA and other direct measures, but very rarely over the long run and then only in special cases like playing home games in Coors' thin air. If Noah didn't have the track record or the obvious physical tools, those short term things would be pretty meaningless.
You don’t think playing with the leagues worst defense behind you is a special case
I understand where you’re coming from. I would probably do a Waters for syndeguard deal, and add in a low level piece as well if need be (the trade the article proposed). But that more or less is my limit.
Now for some actual tangible points about tonight's game.
We play Washington on the road in a really important series. We need to win the series and we sure can't afford to get swept, that would leave us just 1 game up in the all important loss column. Tonight we face tough left hander Patrick Corbin. He's been good all season and even better recently.
On the plus side we've been as good against lefties as righties. We have a slightly lower batting average and slightly higher OBP and OPS against lefties, which some of you know are measures I look at.
We fair a bit worse on the road with a .323 OBP and .752 OPS.
We start Keuchel who has been pretty good since we traded for him, but not quite as good statistically as Corbin.
I'll be back with Corbin's home stats and Keuchel's road stats.
Corbin's home ERA is 1.68 vs Keuchel's road ERA of 4.24...…..YIKES !
Slightly yes, but more so with unearned runs than ERA. Range is a bit of a factor but limited range sometimes leads to fewer errors, so it's a tricky equation.
Over the long run defenses rarely stay real low or real high year after year. Like most external factors they tend to even out over time.
You don’t think playing with the leagues worst defense behind you is a special case
It doesn't help for sure but the effect of a bad defense on a pitchers numbers is a bit overstated. Especially these days with all the shifting.
Plus its not like Citi field is a hitters paradise. They have brought the fences in a bit but that park in general should benefit a pitcher. That offsets some of the defense liability the Mets have IMO
The Mets currently have the 24th ranked defense as measured by ESPN. Over Syndergaard's 4 plus seasons with The Mets they've been 24th, 15th, 14th, 13th and 12th. So basically it's average.
Where it gets interesting is rating defense behind a specific pitcher. Greg Maddux aided his defense in 2 important ways. 1. he had such control he could almost dictate where the ball would be hit, The shifts when he pitched were remarkably accurate. 2. He was the best fielding pitcher in history. Since more balls were hit poorly against him he had more chances than most pitchers as well.
So if a pitcher consistently has worse defense when he's pitching, you can just about be sure it's his fault.
He was the best fielding pitcher in history.
Boy you arent kidding. He got lots of weak contact comebackers but it wasn't just that. His motion put him in an excellent fielding position and he made all the tough plays as well.
That 4 year run he had for the Braves was just incredible.