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Comments
Can a case be made that with the larger sample size of the 2 previous years, this year is the aberration and he's just been "unlucky".? He did well for 2 full seasons - to me that is what is to be expected from him, not this year's "slump".
The advanced stats would say no, but wouldn't be surprised if the truth was somewhere in between, especially if there is a lingering issue, like Dansby's wrist.
Well sure, he has about as many at batsthis year as in 2017. This year he hasn’t had the same luck as in 2017-18 I described, but he has also been a lot worse in terms of contact quality.
2017: xwoba - 304. Woba - 331
2018: xwoba - 310. Woba - 346
2019: xwoba - 267. Woba - 263
I want to note to less informed people that the “gap” between woba and xwoba is what I call “luck”. Xwoba is how you should produce based on your hitting, woba is how you actually produced. So if you hit a lot of bloopers that somehow find a hole, you will have a higher woba than xwoba. If you hit a lot of screaming liners that get caught, your woba will be lower than your xwoba. This was a reason I kept telling you guys Donaldson was hitting well, even before his numbers really jumped this year. His xwoba was a good bit higher than is actual woba, and we know that one of the best predictor of future results is xwoba. It’s a better predictive tool than actual woba in small samples.
An MLB average woba and xwoba is about 320 or so (it is scaled to look like OBP). I would guess Camargos true hitting ability is like a 290 to 300 xwoba. Maybe not quite average for an MLB starter, but good enough for a versatile switch hitting bench bat.
Same old Braves!
Is Culberson on the DL? Why isn’t he at short right now?
Also, let’s call up Drew Waters to fill in for Ender.