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- Please no inappropriate usernames (remember that there may be youngsters in the room)
- Personal attacks on other community members are unacceptable, practice the good manners your mama taught you when engaging with fellow Dawg fans
- Use common sense and respect personal differences in the community: sexual and other inappropriate language or imagery, political rants and belittling the opinions of others will get your posts deleted and result in warnings and/ or banning from the forum
- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
The only reports I have seen is that by the time this is all done, infection rates could be as high as 56% of California and that was said by our governor. That is not 40-80% of people who are going to get tested having it. That is not 40-80% of people today have it, that high number is how much of our population could get it in 2020 if we do not contain it. Let's not conflate numbers. If 7% of folks who are going to get tested have it, that is a great number and our collective hope is that this number goes down rather than up. I think the info out there is that generally this is not fatal, but it has awful symptoms for the most part and it is fairly easy to transmit.
This is something shared with me by email. It's long, but an informative read from someone who has a very knowledgable view.
“As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn’t have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying around you. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e.. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it.. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.”
lol that somebody found this worthy of a downvote
Well he is a @BadDawg so I guess it’s to be expected
CTDawg, unfortunately it seems that everything, even things that shouldn't be like advice from an epidemiologist, is political these days. I for one don't see it that way. I think expert advice about any subject is awesome whether I like it or agree with it or not.
I personally think we should differentiate between differing political views from our understanding of fact. Folks like @texdawg have said they are conservative as they come, which means he and I have different views. Some of my best conversations in life have beeen with thoughtful folks who have differernt perspectives and different views from me and when Texdawg posted about how he sees the world, it made me want to get a (post Covid-19) meal with him and have a conversation - not to convince each other of anything, but to give each other perspective. I think different views is part of what makes our country awesome and it was the freedom to worship and believe differently that my ancestors came to this country seeking.
I think spurning the advice of an epidemiologist during these times is not a difference of political views, it is the willful ignorance of experts and disrespect for anyone who shares info from experts. That I have little respect for, but we all know it exists. I personally think Texdawg is one of the best posters on here and I always look for his posts in threads, but that poor guy has been hounded by DVers from time to time. I for one am extremely grateful it never stopped him from posting (what I consider to be) expert information and analysis about the recruiting process and recruits.
Instead, you get a handful of very stubborn folks who dig their heels in and search for any scrap of evidence that gives their opinion any merit.
I don't know why global pandemic is partisan to some people. I have no background or knowledge to dispute the findings of disease experts; they've devoted their lives to studying these things and I would rather heed their warnings than play it off. I was told a couple weeks ago that I should just self-quarantine myself if I wanted to live in fear, but I was only following the advice of those infinitely more qualified to speak on these matters than I am.
Agree with all of what you said about learning new perspectives. I came from a very conservative family, but my wife leans towards the other side of the political spectrum. I'm a much different person than I was 7-8 years ago, but I think I'm better for it.
@CaliforniaDawg My family and I are still alive and kicking down here in San Diego. I suppose we are in for quite a long haul as it relates to the news of the last few weeks/months in the worldwide Covid-19 pandemic. Many blessings to any, and all who read these words in this post, because that means you are still here!!! <-- that was one of my late father's greatest jokes about his own mortality. He would often say, "the best part about getting old?, is that you are still here!" GO DAWGS!!!
Good stuff. We should be able to respectfully disagree with each other. Right now we are literally in uncharted waters. Even experts disagree on how this is likely to play out. We need to be careful of using single source examples as the "truth". Being an epidemiologist doesn't necessarily make someone THE expert on the current situation. THere are experts saying this will pass with minor disruptions...and we have experts claiming this is going to be absolutely catastrophic. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. With so many 24/7 news sources all competing to break the next big story, it is very hard to tell who is being rational and thoughtful and who is being sensationalist. I have noticed that over the last week or so this forum has calmed down quite a bit and there is a lot less nastiness.
@CaliforniaDawg I haven't always been that way but I have definitely changed over the years.
I'm convicted in my beliefs.... but I see little value in arguing with another convicted person who believes differently than I do. Especially when we probably agree on more than we disagree on.
Cal dawg there are certain topics that I would probably just avoid discussing with you. I won't change your mind and you won't change mine. Buy I'm confident that there are many....if not more.....topics we would enjoy discussing together.
Admittedly....I have differing opinions about Covid 19. But they are just that.....opinions. I'm not a physician, scientists or mathematician. There will be a time in the future that we can all look back and determine what was done right and what was done wrong.
Many....if not the majority.....of my Dawgnation friends are really concerned or out right frightened about this virus. Heck....my wife is. Whether I agree with everything or not....I've decided to respect my neighbors and do my part by adhering to what I've been told to do. Admittedly It makes me uncomfortable.....but I'm more concerned about my neighbors comfort....and my wife's comfort.
Cal dawg....I want more than anything for your family to come out of this whole ordeal healthy....both physically and financially.
Well, Charlotte shut down, but I'm considered essential. Yay me. Traffic has been great though so I get an extra 15 mins of sleep, woohoo.
I don't want to fringe on anyone's right to choose a certain behavior...especially if it doesn't harm those around you.
But one of my dearest friends is head of Acute care and surgery at one of the 3 major trauma centers in Dallas.
Talking last night..... all the young people that are choosing to vape right now ....it's almost equivalent to a death sentence.
I'm sure that's an exaggeration. ... but it's probably wise to at least review the choice of vaping and decide if it's really worth it.
It’s not worth it.
Smokers are probably in the same boat.
You are probably right......take that back.....you are right.
Thanks for all of these updates and info-sharing, @CaliforniaDawg - hoping you and your family continue to stay healthy!
Personally speaking, I also don't understand how sharing facts or testimony from a SME (subject matter expert) can inherently be political. As the adage goes "all feedback is good, some is useful"...I may ultimately not accept everything an expert states as irrefutable but rarely is there not at least one or two key nuggets of info that I can learn to add to a broader collection of knowledge or insights that I've amassed previously on a topic.
I absolutely think that the isolation measures put in place by states and cities/towns has likely helped to flatten the curve and also understand that while the United States is one country, spread of COVID here isn't monolithic (ie - NYC is experiencing case/death growth at a faster rate vs other parts of the country so far, akin to Italy feeling the impact sooner than Spain, other EU countries, etc.)
While I unfortunately believe there will be many more cases/deaths due to COVID in the coming weeks and months in the US, it is worth noting that per the most recent John Hopkins data reported this AM, there have been 1,050 deaths in the US thus far (first COVID-attributed death in Washington state on March 5th). Yes- the curve on that number is still on a steep uptake, but for reference, the daily average at this early stage is 50 US deaths per day. Comparing to the 64,000 flu-related deaths in 2018-2019 (average of 175 deaths per day), a net average of 50 US deaths per day would equal 18,250 over 365 days (18,300 if you want to consider the leap year).
I am NOT predicting that we'll only lose 18,300 American lives to COVID in the coming year...just providing some context that even a tripling of the current average daily death rate experienced through the first few weeks of this pandemic would still not surpass the total US death rate of the regular flu two seasons ago.
My family will continue to isolate as much as possible for the next few weeks to do our part, but I'm increasingly sensitive to the tradeoff between continuous social distancing as a society to slow the spread of the virus over the very real impact to the economy and peoples' ability to pay bills, rent, feed themselves and their families, etc.