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COVID-19 Check-in

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Comments

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 29,735 mod
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423405#Comment_423405

    Yep. Driving on the interstate with snow on the ground. Gonna be staying in a town of like 2.5k. Like a smaller Winder

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  • ghostofuga1ghostofuga1 Posts: 9,216 mod
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423409#Comment_423409

    Smile Brother, Smile. I bet you feel like a a lot has been lifted off your shoulders. Enjoy the fresh air 😉

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  • KaseyKasey Posts: 29,735 mod
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423411#Comment_423411

    Oh eyes I’m gonna try to enjoy it. We can still walk around town which will be nice

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  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 2,758 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423412#Comment_423412

    Can they understand what you're saying eh?

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  • ghostofuga1ghostofuga1 Posts: 9,216 mod

    Must watch Kasey...once you get settled in...or maybe before...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPl2r_I0_I4


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  • CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Here's my predictions about Covid-19. Usually I have posted info and graphs and data. This is pure specuation. This is for discussion only, post what you agree or disagree with, but please don't flame me.

    • By the end of 2020, the US will have 500% more cases than whatever country is #2 for the most number of cases. We became #1 I think Thursday and we are already have 150% of the numbers for the #2 country. This is not a good prediction. It will take a massive toll on our health care system and our economy that we have so many other cases than other countries in the world.
    • Three African/South Asian /South Americancountries not on the current list of the top ten countries with the most caes will join the list and as Covid19 rips through developing nations it is going to be deadly and create unrest and chaos. This will be the next wave of Covid-19's impact.
    • In 2021 (if not 2020), China will surpass the United States as the largest economy in the world. Not because of trade issues, but because they have successfully contained Covid-19 and are moving on and restoring their economy
    • We humans are in an arms race with a virus. Mammals have double stranded DNA, whcich mutates slowly, but we have incredible intelligence and technology. Covid-19 is single stranded RNA that can mutate very quickly and evolve rapidly. This is why we have to get a flu shot each year because Flu strains evolve so much from one season to the next that last year's vaccine is no longer effective against this year's flu strains. But with Covid-19 being more deadly, it only needs a small amount of evolution in its RO (spread of transmission) or incubation latency or deadliness for its impact to be 10 to 100 times greater in a future year than in 2020.
    • There will be a college football season in 2020, but it might get cut short if a new strain of Covid-19 starts spreading as the weather gets cold.
    • The number of unemployment claims will be higher next month than the massive record we just had and we will experience the worst economic year in 2020 than any year since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Unemployment will reach 10% by the end of 2020.
    • But it's not all bad. Part of the downturn isn't just going down, but a major realignment and a period of rapid change, which is hard in the short-term but not all bad in the long-term. Some companies and industries, like Amazon, Walmar, grocery store chains, online video conferencing, gun manufacturers, solar and battery storage companies and 3M are going to post huge revenue/profit numbers and others like the airlines, restaurant groups, theaters, amusement parks and others will post massive losses and/or see consolidation and/or reduction of companies/revenue for the sector. Can Americans looking for employment find jobs in other sectors quickly enough?
    • Public schools, sadly, will be slow to adapt to changing times. Right now, they are assigning work for students while private schools are doing online classes. My kids are in public school and this frustrates me. Fortunately, I used to teach in a public high school and so I am able to create lessons for my kids, but most kids don't have these opportunities. My prediction is that public school never adapts to the realities of Covid-19 and that is scary.
    • There are going to be some centers of significant violence, starvation and unrest around the world, but I doubt it will be in the US - at least not now.
    • Many Americans, myself included, have grown soft and are not self-sufficient. I am dependent on the grocery store and I haven't been doing things I can and should be doing myself around the house. I hate to admit these things, but it's true. I'm not a general contractor, but in the past three weeks I have completed some pretty significant electrical and carpentry projects around the house and sewn some articles of clothing, but man my stitching is horrible. I also used to be a good enough hunter that I used to upset my friends about an hour southeast of Macon who couldn't understand how a city boy from Atlanta could get through the woods so fast, be such a good shot and track deer without dogs. But, it has been over a decade since I have used these skills at all and they are very rusty. Very. That too I'm addressing. Adversity creates strength and while I don't wish adversity upon us, I also am glad about the strength and self-sufficiency it will foster in many of us and this is a positive. I think we will focus as a nation more on self-reliance than indulgence and this is good.
    • I also am glad to be spending more time with my family and valuing them. Too often in our world, we (and by we I mean I) have paid lipservice to family. But for the past three weeks, we have spent a lot more time together, talking together, reading together, discussing together, played a lot more family games, etc. I think going forward, America will remember the value of family and not having work come first and this will be good for our country.


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  • razorachillesrazorachilles Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thanks for posting these thoughts, @CaliforniaDawg and not looking to flame: on your first bullet re: total # of US cases being 500% more than other countries...do you mean total cases or total confirmed (tested) cases?

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  • CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kasey actually, most of China's economy is now service based, much like ours. Their exposure to exports is smaller than we realize but their economy wasnt much affected by the tariffs


    @razorachilles i was using Hopkins data, I think its confirmed cases

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  • razorachillesrazorachilles Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @CaliforniaDawg - thanks for clarifying...the data on the Johns Hopkins site is confirmed (tested) cases, but CDC and WHO confirm that actual cases are likely significantly higher.

    I don't have enough info to attempt to make a guess on which country will finish with the most cases that were confirmed via test, but I'm skeptical that the US will be the highest.

    I found this U.K. article very interesting in terms of how conclusions on data early on in the outbreak - which then become the basis for future predictions - and how calculating mortality rates based only on reported cases may not necessarily be the best approach:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think


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  • pgjacksonpgjackson Posts: 18,823 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423565#Comment_423565

    Outstanding! Pretty much along the same lines as that other article that was published by Medium that was removed from the internet. Nobody is saying this isn't serious...just that maybe we are overreacting just a bit.

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  • razorachillesrazorachilles Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2020

    @pgjackson - the section around how cause of death is definted/recorded in hospitals every day for the regular flu was something I hadn't considered. I don't know if it's the same in the US and UK, but it would make sense that the underlying cause of death isn't necessarily how it's recorded/tracked. ie - an HIV patient catches the flu, develops and then dies of pneumonia but cause of death is "HIV" vs the standard flu.

    Specific to New York City, there have been 790 COVID related deaths going back to March 14th (2 weeks). For reference, NYC had an average of 1,044 deaths per week in 2017 (2,088 over two weeks). Obviously these weren't all flu-related; with the majority appearing to be complications to cancer; but it would stand to reason that some % of cancer patients with weakened immune systems due to their cancer treatments might be more suceptible to a COVID-related hospitalization or death. In case people are wondering, 290 of the 54,280 deaths in NYC in 2017 were murders.

    Sadly, still a long way to go on this story...

    UPDATE: FDA has issued an emergency authorization for the use of hydroxychloroquine on COVID patients/

    HHS Official Release:

    https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/29/hhs-accepts-donations-of-medicine-to-strategic-national-stockpile-as-possible-treatments-for-covid-19-patients.html

    Washington Post Article (love the objectivity of the headline "FDA authorizes widespread use of unproven drugs to treat coronavirus"):

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/30/coronavirus-drugs-hydroxychloroquin-chloroquine/


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  • pgjacksonpgjackson Posts: 18,823 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423578#Comment_423578

    It's pretty safe to say the reporting and data collecting of COVID has been very different than other diseases. It's like dying from COVID is way worse than dying from the flu or some other illness. One thing that isn't being reported are those testing negative (90+% of all tests are negative) and number who tested positive but have no symptoms.

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  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/423578#Comment_423578

    Headline is objective. It hasn't been proven to treat COVID-19. The France study was small and flawed. There is a reason to move to clinical trials, but we shouldn't be using this as a treatment yet. People with autoimmune diseases are struggling to get their meds now, and we don't know if it will work. I hope it does, but the data isn't convincing yet.

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This discussion has been closed.