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- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
Yep. Driving on the interstate with snow on the ground. Gonna be staying in a town of like 2.5k. Like a smaller Winder
Smile Brother, Smile. I bet you feel like a a lot has been lifted off your shoulders. Enjoy the fresh air 😉
Oh eyes I’m gonna try to enjoy it. We can still walk around town which will be nice
Can they understand what you're saying eh?
Must watch Kasey...once you get settled in...or maybe before...
Here's my predictions about Covid-19. Usually I have posted info and graphs and data. This is pure specuation. This is for discussion only, post what you agree or disagree with, but please don't flame me.
Thanks for posting these thoughts, @CaliforniaDawg and not looking to flame: on your first bullet re: total # of US cases being 500% more than other countries...do you mean total cases or total confirmed (tested) cases?
Interesting thoughts. I have always been a little more glass-half-full, so will give my two cents...
The $$$ to be made globally in a treatment/vaccine for this virus will mitigate future spikes in cases. The vaccine may not eradicate this thing, but in combination with treatment options a year from now we will be better armed to attack this. Not to mention over the counter tests that will be as easy as a pregnancy test. Our defense will be better a month from now, two months from now, 5 months from now. Adversity makes us stronger.
There are MANY viruses on this planet that are one mutation away from wiping us out, not just this one. Amazing how we, too, evolve to meet their challenge some how, some way.
China depends on us to buy their crap too much to overtake us. Their population will never be able to afford their crap like we can - that's the catch with communism. They need a bunch of capitalists to sell to...
I am in education, and I have seen the revolution coming... This will speed it up for sure, for better or worse.
I will NEVER run out of meat. Nature is it's own supermarket, when needed. Wish I had a pond to augment the woods, but so be it.
You are right about the violence and unrest. It may get nasty in some places.
Still VERY CURIOUS to see what the heat is gonna do to this thing. It may not have gotten here quick enough for some places (NYC, N.O. etc), but if it really starts hampering the virus' ability to live outside the body on surfaces for any time, it's ability to spread in less populated areas that haven't blown up yet gets lessened.
I have hope! Creation is an amazing thing. Checks and balances.
@Kasey actually, most of China's economy is now service based, much like ours. Their exposure to exports is smaller than we realize but their economy wasnt much affected by the tariffs
@razorachilles i was using Hopkins data, I think its confirmed cases
@CaliforniaDawg - thanks for clarifying...the data on the Johns Hopkins site is confirmed (tested) cases, but CDC and WHO confirm that actual cases are likely significantly higher.
I don't have enough info to attempt to make a guess on which country will finish with the most cases that were confirmed via test, but I'm skeptical that the US will be the highest.
I found this U.K. article very interesting in terms of how conclusions on data early on in the outbreak - which then become the basis for future predictions - and how calculating mortality rates based only on reported cases may not necessarily be the best approach:
Outstanding! Pretty much along the same lines as that other article that was published by Medium that was removed from the internet. Nobody is saying this isn't serious...just that maybe we are overreacting just a bit.
@pgjackson - the section around how cause of death is definted/recorded in hospitals every day for the regular flu was something I hadn't considered. I don't know if it's the same in the US and UK, but it would make sense that the underlying cause of death isn't necessarily how it's recorded/tracked. ie - an HIV patient catches the flu, develops and then dies of pneumonia but cause of death is "HIV" vs the standard flu.
Specific to New York City, there have been 790 COVID related deaths going back to March 14th (2 weeks). For reference, NYC had an average of 1,044 deaths per week in 2017 (2,088 over two weeks). Obviously these weren't all flu-related; with the majority appearing to be complications to cancer; but it would stand to reason that some % of cancer patients with weakened immune systems due to their cancer treatments might be more suceptible to a COVID-related hospitalization or death. In case people are wondering, 290 of the 54,280 deaths in NYC in 2017 were murders.
Sadly, still a long way to go on this story...
UPDATE: FDA has issued an emergency authorization for the use of hydroxychloroquine on COVID patients/
HHS Official Release:
Washington Post Article (love the objectivity of the headline "FDA authorizes widespread use of unproven drugs to treat coronavirus"):
It's pretty safe to say the reporting and data collecting of COVID has been very different than other diseases. It's like dying from COVID is way worse than dying from the flu or some other illness. One thing that isn't being reported are those testing negative (90+% of all tests are negative) and number who tested positive but have no symptoms.
Headline is objective. It hasn't been proven to treat COVID-19. The France study was small and flawed. There is a reason to move to clinical trials, but we shouldn't be using this as a treatment yet. People with autoimmune diseases are struggling to get their meds now, and we don't know if it will work. I hope it does, but the data isn't convincing yet.
Respectully, I'd hardly consider them "unproven". Hydroxychloroquine was approved by FDA in 1955 for Lupus and RA and Azithromycin was first approved by FDA in 1996. Sufficient data exists on safety and adverse events for each of these drugs and counterindications of these classes of drugs are also established.
Is there sufficient data to prove efficacy to a clinical endpoint in a controlled study specific to COVID-19? There is not. But does that warrant not considering off-label use which is done regularly around the world by physicians without clinical data for other conditions?
If you think "widespread use of unproven drugs" is an objective headline, then I think we'll need to agree to disagree on this particular point.