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COVID-19 Check-in

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Comments

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,098 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited May 2020

    Some good news for therapeutic approaches dealing with COVID-19. Remdesivir was able to speed up recovery from 15 days to 11 days and decreased mortality from 11.6% to 8% based on a preliminary analysis of the data generated in clinical trial by the NIH (will be interesting to look at the full report). It is by no means a miracle cure, but it can help people and is an important proof of concept. We can target specific viral enzymes with rational based drug design to inhibit viral spread. There are other drugs being tested that target different viral proteins. If these end up working, they can be used with Remdesivir which will likely have a more potent effect on the virus.

    Edit: the mortality rate difference just barely missed the cutoff for being statistically significant. We'll need to see results from other studies with mild and moderate cases to see if it truly has an effect in decreasing mortality.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    You could tell that Fauci was excited because "proof of concept" was what finally started the ball rolling on treatments for HIV. The first drug opened the door for several more to pile on, ending what was once a death sentence. Every time Magic is interviewed on TV, I remember how I felt when he revealed he was HIV positive. 5-6 years earlier and he doesn't make it...

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,098 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    We'll probably see something similar with COVID. Cocktail therapies tend to be more effective than a single drug. Especially when dealing with things that can evolve quickly.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,397 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    What's not clear to me is whether the "placebo" group were given anti-viral drugs as per current regime or were they given nothing? If they were given the baseline treatment to reflect current treatment then the 11.6 to 8 is very encouraging. If not the the Remdesivir may be no more effective than current anti-viral drugs!

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,098 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    So normal drug trials go like this:

    Phase 1; Drug is given to several dozen healthy people to find out what the safest dose and at what concentration the drug becomes toxic and what common side effects might be.

    Phase 2; does the drug have any biological effect on disease? up to a few hundred individuals with the disease are given the drug to see if it has any effect. Historically, most drugs fail at this stage.

    Phase 3; this is the gold standard for determining a drug's benefit. Up to 3000 patients participate in a multi-site, controlled, randomized trial. Some will be given the experimental drug while others are given the best currently available treatment as a placebo.

    Phase 4; market surveillance to make sure no harmful side effect was missed.

    Anti-viral drugs typically target viral proteins so they tend to be very specific to what they are effective against. Usually only a few viruses that have highly similar target proteins.

  • BobcatGradBobcatGrad Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I will be at the Virginia Statehouse protesting Gov. Ralph Northam on Wednesday.

    A week ago his Health Commissioner floated the policy we would remain at Phase 3 until there is an approved vaccine.

    80 percent of the deaths have been in nursing homes, but they will not provided the locations as they said they treat nursing homes as individual patients and said privacy laws does not allow that to be disclosed to the public.

    Now to further delay the June 10 stay at home, they will count even positive test for the same individual as a new positive case. At the press conference today they indicated it could be 12 weeks or longer before we get to Phase 3.


  • BobcatGradBobcatGrad Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thanks for the down vote up above and here is your chance for a second down vote. Here is a second source from a mainstream media source.

    BTW, UVA said they will probably wait until next month to make a decision about holding classes in the fall.


  • RxDawgRxDawg Posts: 2,922 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    You're more optimistic than me in the pharmaceutical realm. Curing corona virus is essentially like curing the common cold. They've been trying to figure that one out since the beginning of medicine. But I sure hope they do.

    My optimism lies in nature. Either nature will kill it off, or we will naturally become immune enough that it no longer holds the threat it does now. Sometimes an ecosystem is like a bucket of water. Once it gets kicked, it's got to rock around for a little bit before things settle back down.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    You-do-you Bobcat. It is your right as a citizen of this wonderful country to peacefully protest. Adhere to social distancing, and keep it civil and I see nothing wrong with this, whether I agree with you or not. This stance taken by the VA state government is different than most. Wrong? I will let you know in 6-8 months...

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited May 2020

    Urgency is a b@#(h. I would argue that 1000x the money and the resources put into curing the common cold has already been put into this crap.

    And my hope is for a therapeutic cocktail first - that turns the symptoms from lethal to rough, from rough to tough, from tough to minor.

    A guy holding a stick doesn't terrify me like a dude with a .38 does.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • UGA_2019UGA_2019 Posts: 157 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Just so I have this right... you’re protesting governor Ralph Northam because you don’t like his response to the pandemic? That’s governor Ralph Northam, former pediatric neurologist and officer in the US Army? Just making sure we’re talking about the same guy here. So what’s wrong, he doesn’t know enough about medicine for your taste? Or are his leadership skills somehow lacking?

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 28,881 mod

    send him a PM...keep this conversation off the thread because most of us don't want to read it

  • razorachillesrazorachilles Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Just the Google COVID database but would obviously trust the individual state sites' data...I find time of day data is pulled is often the reason for any discrepanciess

  • MarkBoknechtMarkBoknecht Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kasey Just curious, are you still in Minnesota? You do realize that's Muskie territory. Northern Pike too.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 28,881 mod

    yep...still here. chances are we might be taking a pontoon out shortly..if I pull anything out i'll make sure to post pics

  • BaxleydawgBaxleydawg Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    In regards to number of cases, the US tests a lot more. We of also have a lot bigger population than Spain.(330 mill vs 49 mil). So when you combine that we are a much wealthier country that has a lot more testing capabilities with a larger population I’d expect that difference. Add to the fact that we have a lot of misreporting of the numbers ( for example the same person tests positive again is counted as a new case.) Even the flu is not tracked accurately. The CDC estimates between 29,0000 to 62000 people died of the flu in the US this flu season. They don’t really know. It’s the same with this disease. And other countries with fewer resources to test have even less accurate numbers, BTW I have a personal friend who died in April after having been sick for 6 months. They tested him while still alive negative. They tested him again after and stated positive. Cause of death ruled as Corona He was 80.


    None of this changes that we don’t want to see death and suffering. However a filthy rag on your face doesn’t protect you. With most peoples hygiene especially. The solution has always been good hygiene and sanitation for this and other viral diseases. Along with quarantine of the sick.

    I read a story in March about a lady who worked at a chicken processing plant. She was obviously sick but her supervisor told her she had to work anyway. Beside the fact that it’s disgusting to have a person sneezing and snotting all over my chicken this was extremely ****. She infected many other people at the plant.

    Our society functions as a large team. Some people make shoes, others grow and harvest food, etc. Social distancing for any long period is impossible. However people being taught to have better hygiene and stay home when sick is possible. Thousands have died of the flu and other sicknesses in the past simply because of kids getting sent to school sick. Imagine your neighbors sending their kids to school sick and your kid bringing that germ home and your elderly parent contracts it and dies. Tragedy easily avoided, not by shutting down school but by people having more sense.

    I challenge you to observe people the next time you are at the grocery store . Look for bad hygiene, disgusting habits, etc. You will see it. I personally saw a lady pull down her face mask and wipe her nose on her hand who was checking out in front me. She did not sanitize before using the pin pad. I’ve saw worse.


    Oh and when economics is mentioned, this isn’t minor. We are talking economic collapse, China currently buying US banks and assets under the cover of this. All empires in history have ended. This very well could be the collapse of our our way of life. Man’s old enemy of hunger and poverty are always outside the door. Look at our grocery stores. You’ve never seen our food supply stressed like this. Scary times

This discussion has been closed.