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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
We can but hope but tomorrow's numbers will give a better idea as to whether this is due to "Mother's Day" or a true trend.
Yesterday - for Mother's Day - we went back to church!!! Now, before everyone freaks the crap out, I will describe this process. Our Sanctuary seats about 2500 people. In the 11:00 service, we had approximately 150 folks there. Every other pew was closed, and the open pews had either the left or right half closed (alternating L-R-L-R). My family and I were a good distance from anyone. All doors - exterior and interior - were propped open. I touched nothing (except for a pew that smelled "clean"), and politely stayed 10-15 feet from others as we spoke. There was massive cleaning between the 9:00 and the 11:00 service with every imaginable surface wiped down. There were touchless hand-sanitizer stations all over the place. There were signs on the bathroom doors that limited the capacity for each restroom to 3 people tops. The average age attending was much lower than normal.
Needless to say, it was a very different look, but I was VERY THANKFUL to be back involved in worship with others.
Our community/county of about 300,000 sits around 340 reported cases (around 7500 cases confirmed statewide), with about 75% of these reported as "recovered." I assume that means there is pretty stringent follow-up process with these cases. Our county has reported 12 deaths associated with Covid-19. DHEC in our state still estimates there are 55,000 cases actually (350 deaths), with only 7500 confirmed. Just about a third of those fatalities were in nursing homes. Our state lags in testing pretty bad - and if you look at the socio-economic lines here (which are DRASTIC) you can see a pattern that follows general heath care trends.
Businesses cannot limit capacity like we did at church yesterday - but at least this is a step. We really need to get our testing up, I would think, to track the new cases moving forward.
I'd be more excited if the totals haven't been super low every Sunday for the last month. The good news is there's encouraging signs around NYC with fewer people being checked into the hospital and those in intensive care steadily (albeit slowly) going down
I think the three day rolling average is the best way to go since it can help with random fluctuations. We'll get a better idea over the next week or so if it's truly declining at a national level.
For sure. I've been wary of the weekend numbers because of that but the northeast has been seeing a decline in hospitalizations recently which gives me hope.
There are some pretty depressing analyses that show zip codes are a pretty good predictor for COVID-19 infection outcome.
fingers crossed.
and then hopefully this has taught us how to better handle the bounce back in the fall
for sure...most deaths are happening in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn in NYC. The zip code in Manhattan where the fiance and I live hasn't been hit that hard.
If you get some downtime (which is comical to even type), look into the differences in every measurable possible (average income, health care, test scores and teacher pay in schools, levels of education, etc.) between Upstate-Columbia-Coast of SC and the rest of SC. It is as drastic as anywhere in the country. The only difference in the metro areas where things are so bad - the only saving grace - is probably population density.
if I want to be depressed I'll just see which ones of my friends and colleagues shared the "plandemic" video instead ;)
"don't leave a hateful comment until you've watched with an open mind"
Data reporting has been "lumpy" (technical term), to say the least. Between weekend and Mother's Day, I assumed the low # reported yesterday would bounce back up; surprisingly - report today out of NY state is 62 deaths (was 41 yesterday). Furthermore, Cuomo's shared that NY appears to be on the back end of the bell curve - at least for this wave - in what appears to be first steps towards re-opening the state:
FYI Florida deaths Cum and by day for last week. This shows why I hesitate to make assumptions/forecasts based on the last 2-3 days.
Yeah - I find 7 day rolling avgs are better to smooth some of the reporting-related anomalies:
Only 30 cases in my county, cumulative. Zero deaths. My wife's grandmother, who tested positive several weeks ago, was able to celebrate another mother's day. She has been getting better and better. Life seems to be getting closer to normal as the economy has been gradually opening up. The coolest spring since the 1940s doesn't hurt my feelings either. Just counting blessings over here.