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Comments

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I don't think he was implying the area would be the same. It doesn't take an much education to understand that changing any single condition would make it almost impossible to have the same area under the curve let alone shutting the entire economy down.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 29,715 mod

    Beats knowing someone died because of me. I don’t like wearing one, but if wearing one stops the spread, I think I can deal with some discomfort. I’m not storming the beaches of Normandy or anything

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I think that is a great way to be. I think it would be better if more people were that way. However, I am not surprised or infuriated that they are not.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited June 2020

    Maybe he wasn't (it seemed like he was) but many people believe that we were destined for a set amount of cases or similar amount of cases between the options. Flattening the curve would necessarily mean extending the time where we see new cases coming up for that to be true. The concept has just been horribly presented. Just because Europe's graph has a spike followed by low cases whereas ours has remained constantly high doesn't mean we're doing better because it roughly represents those neat fictional graphs that were given to the public. Scientists are terrible at communicating information to the general public. We either give way too much info that no one can follow or we oversimplify things to the point it doesn't accurately reflect reality. The latter is the problem here.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    As a son of a scientist, I agree. I also think that there are a lot of people who thought taking such drastic measures would do more to stop the virus and are now surprised that more cases are popping up. If anything, this experiment has made me feel less confident in the effectiveness of any future shutdowns. Especially when you consider the economic harm that has been done.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited June 2020

    Man, I sure do appreciate the feedback on the graph and everything else from all you guys.

    And, yes, I was under the impression that the area under the graph was supposed to be similar (maybe not exact, but it always looked similar to me ON EVERY GRAPH), regardless of what happens. I still feel that was an accurate interpretation of the data presented. That is what was communicated, in my opinion, across the board BEFORE THIS THING SWUNG POLITICAL. And, yes, it was horribly presented if that was not intended.

    I am at no time indicating that we should just go out and live like we want to, cases be d_mned. I know there is plenty we can do. I will argue that - even though some may disagree - we have done a lot and continue to do a lot. I see distancing. I see masks. I see people having common sense. Which is why I DON'T SEE Augusta, or New York, happening again. We will have ebb and flow - I thought that was communicated before stores were reopened. What I don't understand is why everyone is very upset about what was predicted.

    Did people really think we were down to the numbers to where we could contact trace everything? I personally never thought that was the purpose of getting back to some sense of normal living. I always felt like we were balancing on an edge until some type of treatment/vaccine was developed (which is hopeful, but not promised).

    Minus a vaccine, I expect us to live with this thing for the duration. No end. Another type of mortality - one that we learn to control but never eradicate. And what we look like right now is not how I hope we live moving forward.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    No one should get mad at others for interpreting the graphs that way because it is exactly what they showed. It was just bad info. That type of data in real life will always be messy and isn't guaranteed to follow a normal distribution especially when you look at cases for the entire country

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I understand the variance in it all, but I always assumed the final tallies would be in the same ballpark, as long as the medical system was not strained. That is where I thought the main difference would come. I will be curious to see the mortality rate from now until Christmas vs. March until now.

    From a scientific standpoint, all of this is fascinating (which I don't like to say when so much - including life and death - is at stake). The 1000's of variables... The county to our west has had 3000 cases. We have had 1200. The county to our east has had 100. The population is different, but not that different.

  • ForestryDawgForestryDawg Posts: 29,326 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited June 2020

    The only bright spot of a canceled season would be that Gator Hater counter keeps rising.


    Edit: I meant to post this in the FHZ Thread, but it actually works here too. I wonder if being a dundermuffin is a symptom of the Coronavirus.

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 5,357 mod

    1092 new cases in Mississippi today smashing the record of 611.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 29,715 mod

    Record number of cases today. Wear your mask people! College football depends on it!

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,504 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    This table is for June Month-to-Date in comparison to the May equivalent.

    CPD - Average Cases per day.

    TPD - Average Tests per day.

    Note: The last line is the US total excluding NY, NJ, Mass, Illini, Penn and Mich (the states in NE/ mid west that I had been tracking initially).

    Florida for instance shows a 38% increase in testing but a 219% increase in number of cases which means that the rate of positive tests (spread) has increased by 135%. In the case of Mississippi June testing is down 20% yet cases have still increased 29%.

    It would be much worse if the last week was compared to the May average. For instance the 10 state sub-total shows the June average sits at 14,740 per day but the 7-day average is 22,249.

This discussion has been closed.