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COVID-19 Check-in
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Interesting when you look at the numbers. We are pretty much wide open especially down here on the coast. Short distance from New Orleans and Mobile so caught in the middle. Casino's are slowly making masks mandatory allowing 50% capacity which is really alot of people considering they go by square footage and the casino floors are quite large.
Masks not being worn by the majority from what I can see when we make our neccessary runs out.
We pretty much stay home, no casino or dining out at all right now and I work a reduced schedule 2 on 3 off/3 on 2 off at full salary which is nice, like being semi retired. The Navy whom I work for has mandated for active duty the shelter in place restrictions other than regular duty, basically take out only, no casinos, no gym, no barber/beauty shop, no beaches, etc. Call it HPCON C- because of the rise in cases and will be like this in the foreseeable future according to the Command.
Shout out to @Denmen185 for taking the time to track& monitor this case data. I’m a data guy so really appreciate this type of approach to this discussion.
The one thing I’ll offer is that the # of cases - while certainly a leading indicator - does not necessarily tell the whole story. Layering age (and relative risk) as well as severity of cases is a more helpful directionally speaking as to whether the broader impact to society/economy is improving or getting worse.
Just two examples from my timeline this AM:
EDIT: apologies - not able to post either link for some reason (?))
I certainly think that cases are way understated but would be interested to see why CDC says 10x. In NY study they had the same figure (10x) but I feel that was flawed. Since then (April) testing has increased considerably which should reduce the factor and the testing sample is definitely not "random" i.e. not a total cross-section of the entire population. So the 10x may be impacted on the criteria used in who was tested.
On the age distribution I started tracking Florida cases 55+ but their dashboard has not been available since 6/23 (using the dashboard as a surfboard? 🤣).
Although the 55+ has fallen from 35% YTD to around 20% (good) the total cases in that age range has increased from about 250 per day to 700 (very bad) as the cases have increased from 725 per day to 4,013 per day last week!
I'm just glad we are able to have reasonable discussion on the topic. Much appreciation to everyone for the data and commentary shared in this thread. I believe we will pull through, but maybe not as quickly as I'd hoped.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863 This has some data that shows Covid impact in age groups as of June 17 in the US 92% of Covid related deaths were people 55 and older.
Good to see more data. Don't know how old you guys are, but 55 ain't old. Stating the headline a different way, 20% of deaths happen to folks under the age of 64. Again, not old. Herschel is 58.
I guess everything is bigger in Texas including infection rates.
Florida hasn't reported yet! I think they just tipped to exponential growth. 8,900+ cases today.
My model indicates US deaths top 1,000 again on July 2nd although this is likely to occur June 30th due to the "Tuesday" effect (weekend catch-up).
Wear a mask , secure the crib . It’s that simple!
SC hovering now around 1200 daily cases. Our percent positive seems really high. Our hospitalization number for Covid-19 is at 900, but several people are indicating that the rate of severe cases in those hospitalization numbers are getting lower and lower. Not sure if that is better treatment, younger patients, or some combination of both (or something else, I guess). A very high percentage of cases are still just in 4 counties. People in Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Myrtle Beach really need to chill out, stay farther away from each other, and wear a mask. Those 4 places are going to cost everyone else a fall prep sports season.
On the bright side - the number of deaths are still pretty level.
7 day average deaths stable at 10, Cases hit a new high at 1,169 but only marginally above the 1,049 of 3 days ago. Steady but certainly NOT exponential growth at this point.
Where I am (Florida) is somewhat different. 3 days ago 7 day average was 3,746; now 5,535. I was planning a casino trip to Tampa this weekend but with 1,112 cases reported today (Hillsborough County) felt it was better to wait. Overall Florida reported 9,585 cases. Stay safe!
This is purely anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth. From the start of the pandemic up until last Saturday, I knew one person in my entire circle of friends and acquaintances who had tested positive for CV (within two degrees of separation, that means one single person among thousands of people). Over the past week, seven people I know have tested positive, mostly young people at summer camps or in youth sports, including one in my own family.
I take some comfort in the low mortality rate, and I believe herd immunity is the only long term hope (I'm old enough to remember "measles parties"), but there's no doubt this thing is bouncing back right now, and highly contagious.
Hate to make light of the virus but hell I live in Florida and need something small to maintain my sanity. This article is very good read from a reputable source.
The main thing I got from it was the “They were extremely agitated, and many had neurological problems – mainly confusion and delirium,” quote. Could this explain the problem in Florida (UF), SC (jr), Tenn (UT), Alabama (UA and AU) and even Georgia (Tech). It could be that UGA rivals were already susceptible to these issues. 🤣
In all seriousness, if the article is correct it would explain why so many are asymptomatic. Everyone is looking for flu-like symptoms but this suggests that the virus attacks the weakest organ and may just show up as a s troke, heart attack etc. which would not be a respiratory issue and hence not induce coughing or sneezing.
Maybe this explains why my liver hurts.