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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
I was talking about worldwide deaths which is why I said deaths from Covid19 so far are a couple hundred thousand, clearly more than the US total.
The linked article from the CDC estimates worldwide Spanish flu deaths at over 50 million.
Yeah sure, the odds are increased but it's no guarantee.
So your saying there's a chance...
..that this could get better, or this could get worse. I think one of these scenarios are correct.
I hope we find a treatment. I understand that a lot of people moving forward will still suffer.
Lots of books will be written about who ends up being more right...
OK...fair enough.
But the MD/vet in Carroll County Ga in 1918....where my family is from.....is on record as saying that he didn't lose a single patient.....not a man, woman, child, cow or pig from the Spanish flu.
But the media in 1918 was concerned that they weren't testing enough in far West Georgia.
Who was arguing it was guaranteed? Not assuming the worst case scenario doesn't equate to any kind of guarantee.
Gray, that's a great question. I can only speak for myself, but I think it's perfectly fine to talk about the flu in modern times vs Covid19. What's not ok is doing an apples to oranges comparison whether it is football or Covid19. One great football example is Georgia Tech and other teams were well ahead of Georgia in recruiting for the 2021 class, but no one was worried because it wasn't an apples to apples comparison because it was early in the recruiting cycle and what matters is the final class signed. Back in February, one network was doing a lot of comparisons between Covid19 and the flu. For example, on February 27th, there was a big comparison to the thousands of Flu deaths and 0 Covid19 deaths in order to mock the reaction to Covid19.
What I would say is that as long as we are using an apples to apples comparison, looking at the flu vs Covid19 is not only ok, but helpful. So let's do this comparison here and now. The flu kills 12,000 to 61,000 a year in the US according to the CDC. Let's call that 36,000 deaths a year. We have had Covid19 in the US for 3 months now. We just hit 50,000 deaths in 3 months. Multiply it by 4 to make it a full year and that is 200,000 deaths. And that 50,000 deaths to date in 3 months is with 0 deaths in the first month and with social distancing for the last month (more or less).
So, really it comes down to what's the point of the comparison. Is it to justify one's point of view or to mock others with a skewed perspective or is it for the purpose of analysis and understanding? One of the things I have loved about this forum is that we have all helped each other think about what are good ways (per capita not total numbers) and bad ways (a year of flu vs the first month of Covid19) to analyze Covid19 and understand it. There are some very clear and hurtful slanted analysis attemps out there all over the political spectrum, but we have done a pretty good job of discussing and analyzing together. I hope in the end of the day, this thread doesn't give you the bad taste you said you get from TV News. You and I (and all of us on this thread) are having a non-defensive, non-attacking conversation without arguing or trashing the other person and I for one feel that is a lot different than TV news.
A few thoughts from a mathematician/scientist who has ZERO medical background.
This pandemic will only end if and when
Looking at 1 and 2 the experts seem to think that the target level is 60% penetration to make the problem manageable going forward (not totally eliminate it).
The purpose of social distancing is to slow the spread until one of the 3 events occur. It will not in itself eliminate the disease, it will merely reduce the number of deaths that occur in the interim. Without one of the 3 events it will not reduce the number of deaths in the long run.
Looking at NY data, there have been 21k deaths and 263k overall cases (1.35% of population). However, the deaths are more lagging than cases and the number of cases 9 days ago stood at 215k. This would suggest the mortality rate of "cases" is around 10%. The recent study of antibody testing suggests that the cases represents only 10% of those infected so the mortality rate of those infected (rather than cases) is around 1%.
Regarding #2, using this data and the experts projection that 60+% would need to be immune which equates in the US to 200 million people, 2 million will die in the meantime. The great unknown is whether the immunity will last long enough to even then reach "Herd immunity". At current rates of 60k per month this would take 2.5 years.
Regarding #3, this would be the best outcome especially if it occurs this summer but that is hope and both unknown and not within our control.
Therefore #1 (or a combo of 1 and 2) is the avenue that obviously needs pursuing with everything the world's scientists have to offer. In the meantime the best we can hope for is that there is some positive seasonality aspects that reduce the infection rate (leading to 60k deaths/month) and that relaxing current social distancing rules does not cause an escalation in the rate(s).
That may be the most succinct summary of the situation i have seen yet. Thanks for sharing.
What would we be looking at if we used a weighted average of all of the recent antibodies studies that have come out in the last week or so? 1% mortality is on the higher end of the studies IIRC.
Great post! I may add a couple of ideas. An antiviral treatment may not lower infections, but may lower mortality. That would be awesome.
And if this truly is a 2 year ordeal, we have to learn how to live better that the random chaos we are experiencing right now...
I wouldn't even consider the California tests at this point. They weren't outside the false positive range for antibody tests and their methodology is being ripped apart. Better data is coming out soon.
Most "experts" are saying that it is less than 1% but that is comparing current deaths to current calculated infections. The problem that I have with that is that deaths do not generally occur on the same day as infections. Put another way it is certain that if there were zero infections from today on, deaths from currently infected people would continue for a few weeks.
If infections are 10x current cases then you can't calculate mortality rate by dividing the 50k deaths by 8.7 million currently infected as those infected 2 weeks ago were only 4.7 million and the 4 million infected since then will result in a further 40k deaths in April/May at the current rate. Not sure obviously that 2 weeks is the right number but seems to be more than a week from hospitalization to death for the unfortunate ones.
For those in the know - is the survival rate of those who are put on a ventilator getting any better? The reports I have read have stated those numbers are not good at all. We have had two gentlemen from my church who were touch and go on ventilators for over a week who finally just went home. The initial push from local governments was really towards getting those in stock and saving lives. Just curious to hear from those who have a better grasp of this.
The only interesting tid-bit I heard from their stories was that they improved when rolled over onto their bellies...
Mechanical ventilator deaths are pretty high. Normally, those are 50-50 but with COVID it was closer to 80-20.
Just dropped in to say please don’t inject disinfectant or drink bleach. Was getting worried about some of you...
Yep. And be careful if you try to get a light inside your body.