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FYI Florida deaths Cum and by day for last week. This shows why I hesitate to make assumptions/forecasts based on the last 2-3 days.
Yeah - I find 7 day rolling avgs are better to smooth some of the reporting-related anomalies:
Only 30 cases in my county, cumulative. Zero deaths. My wife's grandmother, who tested positive several weeks ago, was able to celebrate another mother's day. She has been getting better and better. Life seems to be getting closer to normal as the economy has been gradually opening up. The coolest spring since the 1940s doesn't hurt my feelings either. Just counting blessings over here.
Catching up.... I'm genuinely curious has to how everything you've read says we have been under reporting COVID deaths. Because everything I've seen says we've likely been over reporting. Things like you go to Doc, get tested positive, have a car wreck and die on your way home, you get called a COVID death.
Now that example is pretty rare, but it would accurately recorded as such.
We had a patient get tested positive, get critically ill, and was on the rebound. She even went on the vent, and was off the vent. She was a very legit COVID case. She took anticoagulants chronically as a home med. While she was hospitalized she developed some bleeding and had to be correctly taken off her anticoagulants for a little bit. Well... she developed a complication off her meds and it lead to her death. Is this a COVID death? It officially went down as one. And I tend to agree, because if she didn't get COVID she doesn't go to the hospital and she doesn't develop a complication leading to the holding of a life saving medication.
The above case hit us hard because she was likely going to be a success case when we weren't seeing many of those at the time. But collecting the data of whether or not you die from COVID isn't as black or white as some may think. Which is why I think most are saying if there's any grey area, call them a COVID death. It's why I think it could be really over reported.
Interesting footnote. I saw an interview with Elon Musk yesterday. He said they have 7000 employees in China and none of them are positive. Good sign I think. I've been on the fence for a while now, but I think I'm leaning on the side of it's time get things back to normal now. We had our "financial crisis" talk this am with my hospital and things are bad. No one is getting laid off yet, but it's coming soon. And this pretty much goes for the rest of the country too. Don't shoot your foot off for hang nail.
A DV for that?
i'm starting to agree with you regarding the opening up.
full open up? probably not wise.
open up places with half capacity, social distancing...probably wiser.
we need to keep those who are most susceptible to dying from this virus to stay at home, if people can continue to work from home should, but I think the worst of it is over (for now) and we need to get back to work. I think we have enough data to do it right.
You said Elon Musk. To some, that is an auto DV.
It is? I can't keep up with all the "villains" out there these days.
I think the under reporting comes from deaths at home not being counted and not all states counting all LTC facility deaths which in many states can be 30-50% or higher. Several studies show that the deaths that have occurred since mid-march are much higher than the last 5 years for the same period compared with the Covid reported deaths. NYC alone has a 5,000 unexplained differential that is being investigated.
I think there's probably a lot of truth to this, but that broad number would also incorporate people who died from interruptions to the healthcare system.
Not seeking care quick enough from a heart attack or ****, letting chronic conditions get out of control, "elective" surgeries being put off (heart surgery can fall under this), etc. I would think a good chunk of that 5000 number could fall under here.
"I don't know this Elon. I don't know what he does or what he lives on".
Aside from that, cudos to him for standing up to Alameda County, California with their onerous rules for opening back up. I'm sure Texas or Nevada would welcome his company with open arms.
California, the state that has the highest sales tax rate (very regressive) and some of the highest state income tax rates. It's no wonder that many movies are now being filmed in Georgia. The actors just need to relocate here. Great weather, great golf, and much more favorable tax rates for individuals. Businesses too, I suppose.
BTW, my local par 3 golf course in Braselton charges just $15 for a round. And with the present situation, I have been offered several complimentary rounds as well. Same for the two par-70 courses. A full round will set you back about $50, sometimes less.
In California, I suspect you'd have to fork over atleast $200. Why live there?
great weather, great food, beautiful women, the beach, wine country, short drive to Vegas
but i am with you on the taxes being too high
@Supra Ah, the old censor-the-word-s t r o k e. ".... from a heart attack or s t r o k e.." You got censored for that?
If you are aware of anyone falsifying death certificates, you should report it to the police. No one has been able to show me a specific case where someone dying from a violent injury like a car crash or gun shot was listed as a covid death.
Yale - 2 of the 4 articles are 4+ weeks old. Just saying...
I have no idea, but I am not a conspiracy theory guy in either direction.
Like I have commented before, we have to look at who is doing the reporting and decide if it's legit. For instance, MSNBC and FOX can somehow reference the same CDC report and somehow it says two different things. It's all crap...
Prayers for Frontline folk. Prayers for a treatment and then a vaccine. Thankful for this beautiful weather so we are not stuck inside.
My issue:
Still unclear how Lowe's can look like an East Asian subway, yet we still can't open a gym up...
I'm aware. I gave a range to show this has been widely reported for a while and it is still being reported currently. Do you have any recent sources that refute the older and current reporting?
Not sure who filled in the auto censor word base, but I could only imagine....
I am not sure it can be refuted. I was just implying - since thoughts on this situation change seemingly by the day - that assumptions made by anyone a month ago may not be worth citing. Smartest folks in the world have changed their stance on most things - sometimes more than once - since this started.
I was really taking a jab at the media, not any conclusions you had made. I am sure that the numbers reported are way off due to the vast variables involved. To imply a variance in the same direction every time has really different implications that just implying a variance. That's a biased system or nefarious intent. Again, I ain't the conspiracy guy, but to each his own. Regardless, each number is someone who passed away, so it's awful.
Had a senior sociology professor teach half a semester on the role of the media in our society (he was a JFK-grassy knoll guy). I thought he was a little off, but his take on the media's role in a free society was spot on. And in this era, they have failed miserably.
RxDawg, you ask a good question about underreporting or overreporting. My question is how we can figure this out without arguing?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
I came across this article. Actually, I didn't read the article and given how polarized news is, I'm not asking anyone to read it. I just looked at all the data and graphs on the overall death rates in 2020 vs historical averages. Country by country, you can see a clear trend.
Data can be skewed by talking heads this way and that. But, I find it is easier to skew when you go down rabbit holes and try to find subsets of data that make this point or that. But if you pull up to the 50,000 foot level and look at the big picture, there is no way to slice the data for this view or that, it is just data. The graphs in this article are the highest level of data one can look at. I can't tell you what to think of it, make of it what you will. But this data cannot (and should not) be sliced by people wanting to make a left or right arguement for political points.
Fauci in his testimony yesterday said that there is no doubt that the deaths are higher than reported.