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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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  • edited July 2020
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  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Second day out of last 3 that SC reported 2000+ cases.

    Death rate still hasn't seen the increase, bouncing around between 10-25 for several weeks.

    My friend and his wife are both "better," but tried to do some things around the house today and we're exhausted quickly. They both feel kinda pitiful. That's almost a week with symptoms for the wife.

    The Clinic where my daughter works is shut down the rest of the week out of an abundance of caution. An employee who has been self quarantined since last Tuesday (husband tested positive) has tested positive today (both with very mild symptoms). My daughter was on vacation with us last week, so there is no apparent overlap. But it shows how easily stuff can get around.

    It s.ucks for sure. But our local hospital has had steady rates still. Hopefully I can say the same in 2-3 weeks.

  • DawgGirl96DawgGirl96 Posts: 361 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I'm sure there's some gator joke in there that I can't think of. All I can say is really Florida, how difficult can it be to report positive and negative results? Unbelievable.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Most likely antibody tests based on the labs. These negatives are not included in the testing totals for reporting as they merely see if antibodies are present. If they are the individual has a molecular test to determine if an active case or past case. The lack of antibodies does not necessarily mean that an individual is not infected nor previously infected, it just means there are no antibodies. Where the individual is positive and has a follow-up test and is confirmed that test is not added to the positive number. This is done to avoid the repetitive testing running up the negatives (eg MBA players etc especially in Florida).

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It’s an interesting article. If antibody tests, are you surprised by the 9.6% positive result? That would be pretty high, would it not?

    Curious why you think antibody. This is a potentially big story that won’t be covered by a lot of news media.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    I’ve come to a final conclusion and my mind cannot be changed after this latest news and I don’t mean the testing story linked above.

    We might as well open up and get back to having as much fun as possible. I just found out tonight we only have 9 years left to save the planet, and NOBODY can seriously think we’ll pull that off, right?

    We’re DOOMED! Open up the bars, please!!!

  • SupraSupra Posts: 109 ✭✭✭ Junior
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  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    1. My stepdaughter had to go to a hospital in South Florida for treatment and had the antibody test before admission. They told her that if it was positive they would have to send her for a molecular test before allowing her to be admitted t check if she actually had the virus
    2. During my chemo I had to have a basic blood test before treatment to determine whether or not it was safe. They checked for platelets, white and red cells but sent the other samples out to Quest for more detailed analysis. That was UF Health which you would have thought would do this in house but don't. I think I read somewhere that 90% of the molecular testing is done at Quest/Lab Corp because the high volume machines are expensive.

    With regard to the 9.6% Florida has tested 12.5% of the population with a positive rate of 10.9%. Studies have shown that the problem with antibody tests is that it can give false positives. One estimated up to 50% but I don;t believe that. The actual could be say 7.5% positive which would indicate that 1.6 million Floridians have or had the the virus. That is 5.5 times the cases reported which is lower than the CDC case to infection multiplier. That is what you expect when positive rates have been running close to 20% this month (missing a lot of cases due to inadequate testing).

    See this article we are talking about the minnows in the shark tank


  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Maybe the article you linked didn’t give complete information. It stated the large testing companies were 11-13% pos, but did not state a timeline. Weren’t the early test rates thru the roof?

    This will clear itself up in a few days.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    So far this month SC deaths are 37 below what my model predicts. Wednesday seems to be the peak day in SC. Some states only report LTC deaths once a week so maybe it's Wednesday in SC? Anyway I don't see an uptick in July until Friday when the rest of the month shows average of 40 per day. the recent surge won't reflect in deaths until early August.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    10 states and US update for the first 2 weeks of July on testing and Cases


    CPD - Cases Per Day; TPD - Tests Per Day.

    Those in orange are based on average for June 18-30 as I didn't have detailed test data for those states before June 17th. The Cases were changed to cover the same date range to compare apples with apples.

    Taking Arizona as an example, The tests per day in the latter part of June averaged 12,782. This has increased in July to just 13,542 a 6% increase. However the cases per day increased by 19% (3,491 v 2,945) due to a 12% increase in positive rate. Thus suggests that the virus is spreading rapidly.

    For NC testing has increased 32% but cases only increased 25%. The 6% decline in positive rates are to be expected as testing is widened to cover those with less severe (or many) symptoms.. The spread here is stable.

    Mississippi - can't rely on consistent testing reporting numbers so don't read anything into their data.

    States of most concern are the top 5 plus Alabama all showing major increases in positive rates. Arizona also an issue, their positive rate for July so far is 26% which is pretty close to the ceiling. Either their testing is majorly inadequate or a quarter of the population has been infected in the last 2 weeks! I hope and believe it's the former.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @YaleDawg With due respect, I don't think ice cream and robberies make a great analogy. Vitamin D has been shown to reduce respiratory tract infections dramatically. You can read about it in the BMJ. Not only that, but it is believed to affect the immune system. So, we know we are already in a promising ballpark at the outset. Also, there is a very strong cold and flu-like illness season that hits both hemispheres in the dead of winter. I'm quite surprised a clever fellow like you would bring up Manaus in discussing my comments about C&F season because you should know that season doesn't follow summer/winter patterns near the equator. Brazil isn't a good example. You need to look at higher latitudes like Argentina, Chile, and S. Africa. All three show an inverse pattern to the US, UK, France, Spain, etc. This would suggest the possibility of vitamin D being a key modulator.

    The two studies I mentioned, which are being reviewed, are fascinating imo. Maybe they have already been dismissed, perhaps because they are from the Philippines and Indonesia? The two studies, despite being in different countries, agree remarkably in seeing a very strong inverse correlation between vitamin D levels and CV 19 severity. The Philippine study looked at over 200 people suffering from CV-19. They checked their D levels and followed them for disease outcome. They put the sick people in "buckets" ranging from mild disease symptoms to severe/critical. Of the people who had mild disease, 95.9% had adequate D levels (30 ng/ml) or higher. Of the people who had a bad disease outcome, 3.8% had adequate D levels. The other ~96% were either insufficient or deficient. That is pretty shocking data. I'll be the first to admit these two studies don't prove cause, but they certainly are both very suggestive. It is possible that it's an insignificant coincidence. Here is the graph from the Indonesian study again. You can see that among the cohort of the 780 people they studied, not one person lived who had a vitamin D level below 19, and not one person died who had a level above 34 (ng/ml). The almost linear drop in the death rate with increasing D levels is, again, almost shocking imho.


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