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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Sounds like they followed the law and medical ethics? Unless they have a law for compulsory medical care in that situation you can't give help to someone who refuses.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    That is exactly the position I would expect you to take, and it is how things will be here someday if certain folks get their way.

    You can numb the spot where you are going to stick a needle. It really requires a complete lack of caring and compassion to not be able to get someone to try a needle vs certain death.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    As I said before NY is similar to Europe and their rate is 1,667 which would be #1 according to your chart (except for NJ which is 1,754)

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It is how things are in most places. The right to self determination is at the core of all medical decisions. You can't just violate it.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    NY is like Europe in a number of ways. One is that the local government owns and operates the NYC public hospital system, which is where most poor people would wind up. Good ole government run healthcare, right?

    I reference back to Cuomo - “60% of infections occurred during the lockdown.”

    I think people can easily understand why a disease of this nature would spread thru a prison. When you lockdown a high rise building, haven’t you created very similar circumstances, except the people are free to roam the building with one another?

    Lockdowns killed people.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I get it. If there was no lockdown the people in the same apartment or block wouldn't socialize with each other so the virus wouldn't spread. Given the lockdown was late March until early June it isn't surprising. In a normal season 90% of the points scored in college football are scored between the Saturday before Labor Day and the weekend after thanksgiving.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It was a sloppy argument. I don’t have data to back it up, except the fact cases went up immediately after just about every lockdown.

    I have been looking at the trends across the World, and noticed that most european countries seemed to reach the same death rate per million and then the virus dropped off. That was in the data I posted above. So I started doing internet searches just to see if it is a real thing and apparently others have noticed, too.

    I found this guy, who had already put together the same argument. Only time will tell.


  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Personal confidence in what GummiBear737 says... 3.78%

    Personal confidence in what I just heard on the #&@$ channel as I flipped through all the news networks... 4.12%

    So, Gummi's opinion has a somewhat similar impact on my thoughts these days...

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Denmen185 Where are you sourcing your data for Florida? Here?

    http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

    The numbers you are posting do NOT match what the Florida Dept of Health is putting out. Also, I do not see in the dashboard where the number of “first time positives” is given, just the percentage, which is always lower than the total positive percentage they give(2-3% lower).

    For instance, yesterday 7/17, Florida reported a 15.29% positive test rate, but when revised to only include first time positives the rate then drops to 12.1%.

    The dashboard also makes it very clear that the same person testing positive on 3 different days does get counted as a positive test on all 3 days. It clarifies that if a person tests positive twice on the same day that only one positive is counted.

    I’ve only gone back a few days to check against the numbers you post but it is clear a significant discrepancy exists between your numbers and what the FDOH is putting out.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate



    I use the first one to get the early numbers then get other states from JHU and CNN which agree with each other and as far as Florida is concerned with the FL dashboard. The difference in their % may be that they include negative antibody body results that is contrary to CDC guidelines and all states were told to remove them mid-late May.

  • PedroPedro Posts: 248 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    My wife is Swedish, her family is still there, and we have spent 10 summers or so there. My kids also have dual Swedish citizenship. They basically all have summer houses, but they are like tiny little homes on a lake or in the archipelago. The country shuts down to a large extent. Many shops in Stockholm are closed in July and August. No data though just anecdotal.

    Btw, a recent thesis is that the body’s immunity against covid potentially may not be maintained for longer periods of time. This would kill the concept of herd immunity.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    This article is interesting talking about H1N1 response. It is easy to say in hindsight not as many died but if it is true that in July 2009 States were told not to post cases because everyone knows it is an epidemic, then it could be more. How did they know not to shut down the country?


    https://www.nature.com/articles/463150a

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    I see what's happening. On the FLDOH link you sent the number of tests is way higher than those reported to JHU and CDC (or new company). The PCR test has 2 parts and are shown on that site as

    +,+ = 1 positive

    +,- = 1 positive

    -,- = 2 negatives.

    The numbers going to the ones I use, including their own dashboard, are People tested not number of tests. Thus all PCR negatives are double counted on the linked page and reduce the pos%.

    In fact if you look at top left under the red the positives are the same as cases (337569) and the tests they report is the positive + negative (337569+2594419 = 2931987). These are identical to the numbers on my spreadsheet.

    Daily today not all in yet are today cumulative - yesterday's equivalent.


  • PedroPedro Posts: 248 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Here’s what I googled. Pretty accurate article. My “pretty much everybody” is 20% according to the numbers. Keep in mind you could have several generation hanging out together.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I KNEW IT.

    I suggest everyone read the document I linked. The data you are providing on Florida is misleading and not representative of the situation.

    Florida DOH does report the same person as a new case every single day they test positive. Why?

    Florida DOH AND all media report that number of “new cases” and the very misleading positive rate to the World.

    Florida DOH does give out the actual percentage of new positive cases for tests performed on people who have never tested positive, but Florida does NOT provide how many of the total tests were on such people, nor how many of those first time positives there were. What’s up with that?

    Why give all of the other numbers and not the ones that really matter?

    So they performed 90,000 tests yesterday? What if half or more were on people being retested to see if they are clear?

    Are hospitalization numbers skewed the same way? The average stay in a hospital had previously been reported as 11-14 days, but is now much shorter with the younger age group. I’ve seen 2-3 days, but even at 14 days, and 400 people a day, I just don’t see how you have 9000 people in the hospital “because” of covid. The math doesn’t work.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    On the flip side, there have also been theories ,supported by blood tests, that a huge percentage of the population has a built in immune response from being exposed to other coronaviruses, perhaps even many years ago.

    I’m not falling for that “no immunity” garbage. The human body doesn’t work like that. This virus is very similar in structure to other coronaviruses. The very first lie we were told was that this was something new for which nobody would have any immune response. Remember that? Bogus. The people who can’t now see this as deliberate deception are lying to themselves.

    Worse days may be ahead but it won’t be because of this virus.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thx for the info, Pedro. I'm not sure 20% does the trick on those charts, but it is an interesting possibility. Also, the most shocking part of those charts is the big spike in cases in May through late June yet it didn't seem to affect the slope of decreasing deaths at all. I have my own theories on that, but it is impressive. I'm still inclined to go with that guy's theory in the article on the HIT being lower than thought. That would put the virus burnout much sooner, particularly if there a lot of people who already have some immunity.

    We still don't know much on immunity, but I'm not aware of anybody getting symptoms a second time. I think they had some positive tests after negative tests, but I think they were mostly asymptomatic. That's going from memory, so I could be wrong. Also, don't forget that we get flu shots every year, so that is a possibility with a vaccine.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I see that. Numbers I am seeing are also the same. What I linked also said it only counts number of people, not multiple tests of the same person on the same day.

    The problem is that it counts the same person as another new case on a different day and doesn’t provide information on how many people tested were being tested for the first time, versus how many people being tested were being tested for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc time and are still showing positive. But they still publish those 2nd, 3rd, 4th positive results as a “new positive” even though that’s not the case.

This discussion has been closed.