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- Please no inappropriate usernames (remember that there may be youngsters in the room)
- Personal attacks on other community members are unacceptable, practice the good manners your mama taught you when engaging with fellow Dawg fans
- Use common sense and respect personal differences in the community: sexual and other inappropriate language or imagery, political rants and belittling the opinions of others will get your posts deleted and result in warnings and/ or banning from the forum
- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Play nice
Nope. I've pointed out the lag in many of my earlier messages and that we will see an uptick in deaths in FL soon, and I assume anybody reading the thread has been following the discussion. I think the misleading part is not discussing the difference in death rates. For instance, after today Britain and Florida will have approximately the same amount of total cases. Britain has had about 45K deaths. Florida has had less than 10% of that amount. As I said above and many times before, FL's recent spike in cases will, no doubt, increase the amount of deaths in the coming weeks. However, I don't expect it will be anywhere close to 40K new deaths in the next month! That is what it would take to catch up. The question we ought to be asking is why? Is NHS health care less effective than US medicine? Is the virus weakening? Is it the heat or humidity? Is it vitamin D levels in the population? (My personal belief). This is a dangerous virus to catch, but it appears much, much more dangerous to catch in the winter.
@CaliforniaDawg Did we both pass freshman English in Athens?😂
>>Bamkwalker, that is bollucks, but PerroGrande wont eve see your veiled jabs at every conservatives favorite punching bag state but will go on complaining about how unfair the moderators are.<<
Honestly, I don't see discussing rates as political. If the messages I pointed out had used a statement like the one you cited (see below), I certainly would not have objected.
>>>California is the proof that opening early didn’t matter.<<<
Most of the cases for Florida have occurred over the past few weeks.
None of the current vitamin D studies have found a causal link between vitamin D levels and covid severity. A double blind study of hospitalized covid patients would need to be performed where vitamin D deficient and insufficient patients are grouped with one group given a supplement and the other a placebo. That's the only way to determine a causal link given the number of confounding variables at play.
Wish this weren't the way Covid19 cases were going in our country
I stripped out everything but the picture. The y axis is number of new C ovid 19 cases and the x axis is time. This graph shows why I am worried about selling things this fall because of how the economy will be affected. We need to have a smart Covid19 strategy that works so that small businesses like mine can survive Covid19.
Yes, Texdawg is great at dialogue. We don't always agree, but the direct message communication is open and kind - just what one wants in a discussion.
One thing is that testing was worse in the UK only in part due to the earlier start of their peak. This puts the UK in more of a NY situation but even earlier then NY. The improvement in testing can't be ignored. The higher level of testing allows many more less severe cases to be identified and obviously mild cases have a much better survival rate than those that are identified only when sick enough to require hospitalization. For instance through March and April Florida only conducted 382k tests. In the last 10 days of April they averaged 11k tests per day. Had the situation persisted at that level of testing and today's level of infection they would be averaging 4,000 cases per day. In July they have averaged 53.5k tests per day allowing them to "catch" 13k Cases in 13 days. The deaths would be the same but with the cases being 2.5 times higher the CFR is only 40% of what it would have been without the higher testing level. Also, the UK handled the problem very poorly in the beginning compared with most other European countries. Their delay resulted in a longer shut-down than it would otherwise would have been.
I don't follow anybody's argument here...
So many scenarios being bounced around for sports right now in our state. I have no idea how they are going to settle on one...
Yale, I agree on the need for well designed RCTs, but in this case I think we have a mountain of observational evidence. Much of it hasn't been reviewed and published, but if we use it as a launching pad to study further it can be very useful. Between the study in the Philippines and the one in Indonesia, there is enough evidence that we should be studying vitamin D intensely, imho. Over 1000 CV 19 patients studied between the two, and the studies agree (amazingly well) that there is a very strong inverse correlation between vitamin D levels and CV 19 severity. But, that isn't the only evidence. I'm sure you won't deny the seasonal effect in cold and flu-like illnesses (many coronaviruses fall in this category), and if you look at death rates in S. hemisphere countries they were very, very low back in March, but they have been ramping up steadily as winter has set in. I'll be happy to post the graphs below if you want. OTOH, the death rates in the N. hemisphere have been dropping and drastically dropping in most cases. Some scientists have hypothesized that it's the heat and humidity, but this virus is spreading like wildfire in AZ and FL, all while heat and humidity are at records. It has to be another reason imo.
Am I wrong, or is it impossible to isolate a variable with this thing? There are a hundred different possible reasons for changes in data with this virus - 85 of which we don't even know.
It's gonna be YEARS before we get a real understanding of what is happening.
I just used the UK as an example. We can see very similar data in a number of European countries and in NY. I don't think we can rationalize the drop in death rates with testing. There has to be another key variable. Obviously, there are a lot of variables, but 10X the death rates is a staggering difference. Even if we end up at 5X, it is still staggering. If I'm correct, that vitamin D levels are one of the key variables in disease severity, it has a huge impact on opening up in general and on football season. I doubt we will figure it out in time because there doesn't seem to be much interest in studying it.
A free cure, why would we want to study that?
I've seen all the data, and it is incredibly weak. Ice cream sales have an incredibly strong correlation with violent crime. Does that mean ice cream causes violent crime? Same thing with organic food sales and autism rates. Correlation means nothing if you don't control for confounding variables. The pre-existing conditions often associated with increased COVID-19 mortality are also associated with lower levels of vitamin D. Seasonality of viruses depends on a host of factors with many being environmental. COVID-19 has shown no hints of being seasonal. Brazil is probably the hardest hit country in south america and their winter has been pretty mild in Sau Paulo being in the 70's and 80's. They've also had a lot of cases and deaths in and around Manaus which is in the middle of the rainforest. Florida and much of the south have seen skyrocketing cases and an increase in deaths while New England continues to have declining deaths and cases. The summer is much harsher there than in New England.
The person who DV’d should be banned.
Unfortunately, that is how our system works. If there isn’t any money in it for pharma then it won’t garner much attention and will be shamed as witchcraft. Another very inexpensive treatment that has been clinically proven to shorten the severity and duration of the flu, common cold, and help with pneumonia is n-acetylcisteine(NAC). It basically dissolves mucus, and also promotes white blood cell production and glutathione. Read up on the suspected link between covid and glutathione deficiency. You can buy NAC at health food stores. Ive been taking it for years when I start to feel the slightest bit ill. Can’t remember the last time I progressed to actually being sick. There are a couple very small studies underway with n-acetycisteine but again - very small.
Who has EVER been told by their doctor to take NAC when they’ve gotten sick with the flu? The studies are out there. It just gets ignored. Heck, you can’t even find the studies very easily on the internet now. Stuff like this gets buried.
@YaleDawg Would you mind sharing the source for the graphs you’ve provided on the UK? Just looking for better sources of information.
We will have to wait for the Ken Burns documentary to really know
I use worldometer because it's easier to work with.
From what I've seen NAC only works to clear mucus when inhaled. Taken orally it doesn't do much for thinning mucus. Glutathione's role in immunity and inflammation is well known. Vitamin D and glutathione could be helpful for some people but it's not going to be a panacea.
Early on the US death rate was 10% of cases on average. I now used 2.5% because of 2 things:
Testing makes a huge difference. Taking an extreme example would be if an area only had enough tests to test only patients as they went on a ventilator the CFR would be around 90%. Again it wouldn't effect the number of deaths just the number of cases.
From what you’ve seen? Not sure what that means. I take it orally for congestion and it works better than anything else. Any study that suggests taken orally does not help is flat wrong. Hundreds of thousands of COPD sufferers take it orally for the same reason. It works.
It is also known to reduce inflammation in the lungs.