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Comments
You do realize we added payroll with the trade right
They took on payroll on paper, but Duvall cost next to nothing.
Duvall, which will be actual cost makes under 700K. Kemp, whose cost will be a write off for Liberty is smoke and mirrors.
Liberty literally made more on the team in a tax write off the year of the purchase than they paid for The Braves.
Do you think Liberty took on Kemp's salary out of generosity ?
That’s basically what I meant, the Braves don’t spend big bucks.
Yeah he’s cheap, that’s a good thing in building a team with finite resources haha. If he costed us 10M a year then we probably wouldn’t have made the move because then his contract would likely be higher than his production.
And Liberty isnt going to inject cash into the braves payroll. So unless ted turner wants to buy the team back we can only work with the money we make. The good news is that we should have a bunch of it to spend this off season though, and if their major targets are Adam Duvall types I’ll be screaming right there with you.
It wasn't time to spend big, but there were many moves in the 2 to 5 million range that would have stood a chance at actually improving the team this season. They went for the absolute cheapest relievers and a 205 hitter who makes close to the minimum. Those were not baseball decisions, they were bean counter moves.
I understand there’s advanced stats measuring success. But BA does tell us how often they get on base (outside walks, HBP, etc), which is a fairly crucial metric. What stat is Duvall 5% better? And Dansby hasn’t panned out at the plate, he’s in for his defense.
I'm beginning to wonder if Dansby is the answer at SS. He only seems to hit when it's the 7th inning or later.
His OBP is atrocious as well.
I wish Chipper could instill patience, calmness and focus into the kid. He is often borderline spastic at the plate.
All his stats are horrible besides homeruns. He reminds me of an aging Uggla. Possibly losing bat speed, so he’s an all or nothing swinger
Yeah, getting on base is very important. But I think we can also agree that extra base hits and homers are important as well. Batting average doesn't take into account how often you walk, or the kind of hits you're getting. OBP is that stat for how often you get on base, that would be a bit better measure than batting average.
The best way to look at aggregate offensive production is with the wrc+ stat, which can be found on any advanced stat site. It is scaled so that 100 is league average, and every point above or below represents 1% better or worse than league average. For example a 90 wrc+ represents 10% worse offensive production than league average, and a 125 wrc+ 25% above league average. As an example of how batting average is not a great indicator of offensive production, Ender hit .304 last year but only put up an exactly perfectly average 100 wrc+. This is due to him not getting many extra base hits and him only having a 6.8% walk rate.
Here are some wrc+ stats for 2018 so far
Swanson: 76
Duvall: 77
Mookie Betts (leage leader): 198
Freeman (Braves leader): 148
Enciarte: 80
Acuna: 127
Albies: 114
Camargo: 112
Also the site may have updated earlier today, when i first checked Swanson had a wrc+ at like 70 I think. His big home run last night jumped it up a bit.
I’ll take a great defensive shortstop over 1 point on the wrc+ scale. And again, we keep comparing him to people that the Braves didn’t trade for. Could they have found someone in the 85+ wrc+?
Also, one more interesting stat is wOBA and xwOBA. wOBA is weighted on base percentage, a measurement of offensive production based on the outcome of at bats. It is basically an equivalent way to look at wrc+.
What makes it interesting is xwOBA, or expected wOBA. This stat looks at your batted ball profile (launch angle, exit velo) and assigns certain probabilities to it. Like say I hit a ball 100 mph with a 14 degree launch angle. We can say theres 50% chance of it being an out, 10% chance of double etc... The results are then compiled, and the utput of the formula is basically what we would expect your wOBA to be based on your batted balls, walks and strikeouts. This is a way to measure quality of contact instead of the results, as results have a certain amount of luck involved (Batting Average on Balls in Play).
Anyway, the league average xwOBA is .327. Duvalls xwOBA is .340, whereas his actual wOBA is .288. So he is hitting the ball a lot better than his results so far, and this is absolutely something front offices look at and evaluate players on.
Some posters have discussed his hrs as if they are isolated from his overall hitting numbers, that is far from the case. If he comes up 40 times, fails entirely 30 times and hits 2 HRs, that is a huge net negative.