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Yeah, getting on base is very important. But I think we can also agree that extra base hits and homers are important as well. Batting average doesn't take into account how often you walk, or the kind of hits you're getting. OBP is that stat for how often you get on base, that would be a bit better measure than batting average.
The best way to look at aggregate offensive production is with the wrc+ stat, which can be found on any advanced stat site. It is scaled so that 100 is league average, and every point above or below represents 1% better or worse than league average. For example a 90 wrc+ represents 10% worse offensive production than league average, and a 125 wrc+ 25% above league average. As an example of how batting average is not a great indicator of offensive production, Ender hit .304 last year but only put up an exactly perfectly average 100 wrc+. This is due to him not getting many extra base hits and him only having a 6.8% walk rate.
Here are some wrc+ stats for 2018 so far
Swanson: 76
Duvall: 77
Mookie Betts (leage leader): 198
Freeman (Braves leader): 148
Enciarte: 80
Acuna: 127
Albies: 114
Camargo: 112
Also the site may have updated earlier today, when i first checked Swanson had a wrc+ at like 70 I think. His big home run last night jumped it up a bit.
I’ll take a great defensive shortstop over 1 point on the wrc+ scale. And again, we keep comparing him to people that the Braves didn’t trade for. Could they have found someone in the 85+ wrc+?
Also, one more interesting stat is wOBA and xwOBA. wOBA is weighted on base percentage, a measurement of offensive production based on the outcome of at bats. It is basically an equivalent way to look at wrc+.
What makes it interesting is xwOBA, or expected wOBA. This stat looks at your batted ball profile (launch angle, exit velo) and assigns certain probabilities to it. Like say I hit a ball 100 mph with a 14 degree launch angle. We can say theres 50% chance of it being an out, 10% chance of double etc... The results are then compiled, and the utput of the formula is basically what we would expect your wOBA to be based on your batted balls, walks and strikeouts. This is a way to measure quality of contact instead of the results, as results have a certain amount of luck involved (Batting Average on Balls in Play).
Anyway, the league average xwOBA is .327. Duvalls xwOBA is .340, whereas his actual wOBA is .288. So he is hitting the ball a lot better than his results so far, and this is absolutely something front offices look at and evaluate players on.
Some posters have discussed his hrs as if they are isolated from his overall hitting numbers, that is far from the case. If he comes up 40 times, fails entirely 30 times and hits 2 HRs, that is a huge net negative.
Launch angle and such things are only useful in evaluating very young players and prospects. Duvall has enough history to evaluate his actual production.
Yeah we could have, but an 85 wrc+ is still pretty bad. The truth is that we have no idea who was available or how much teams were asking for them. I really would have liked to add Realmuto (127 wrc+ and 3.5 WAR so far) but I think we can all agree we would not have wanted to trade all of our top 5 prospects for him. I know we tried pretty hard to get Chris Archer, but the trade didn't end up working out for us.
As for Dansby, the advanced stats say he is a fringe average MLB starter, probably a hair worse . Its true he is a good defender, close to being a top 5 SS in the league. This has a lot of value at SS, but unfortunately his bat has been so bad the stats say he is our worst non catching everyday player this year. in terms of WAR/600 plate appearances. We can certainly hold out hope that he makes adjustments and improves, but if this is the guy he ends up being the rest of his career he would probably end up as a utility bench player.
Haha and I think if you practiced what you preached and go back to evaluate his actual production, you'd be a lot happier with getting him. In 2016 and 2017 he was about a 100 wrc+ guy that mashed lefties (. So you're kind of arguing against yourself here. That is his history, and thats probably who he still is.
Also, launch angle and such things are always useful no matter who you are. They are part of the puzzle of telling a complete story of a player. And what the story says is that Duvall has been pretty unlucky so far this season, but that he is still hitting like he has historically in 2015 and 2016. And we know that historically he was a really good right handed platoon bat with strong left field defense.
We didn't get Duvall to be anything more than a right handed platoon bat though, which is a role he is well suited for. And again, he is cost controlled through arbitration for 2 more seasons I think, and we didn't give up anybody with much value at all to get him.
''Haha''...are you 12 years old ?
Duvall's OBP was .297 in 2016, .301 in 2017.
In today's game nothing overcomes those levels of failure to produce. An offense can't thrive when you have rally killers like that.
Haha let’s keep the personal attacks to a minimum man
. Losing the argument isn’t a big deal you don’t gotta get mad. And yeah his OBP of around 300 isn’t great, but I’m not claiming him to be the next MVP lol. Also his 2016-2017 OBP is right there in the range of where dansby ender and Suzuki are this year. Even albies OBP is only .313, marginally better than .300!!
And again, OBP is not the best indicator of offensive production anyway. In 2016 and 2017 he hit way better than Swanson, enciarte and Suzuki have this year. So if you’re going to yell at people for killing our rallies you now have lots of options.
So again, we basically got a decent cost controlled right handed bench bat with some power/ a platoon starter for a bag of balls and some sunflower seeds! He’s not gonna be the reason we win the World Series but it was a decent move that makes us slightly better this year.
If Seitzer can work some of his magic, who knows. He might get better.
Not sure how @WCDawg is losing the argument. Duvall’s stats are horrendous anyway you look at them. When you’re having to dig deep and look at exit velocity and launch angle to find something to be happy about, it’s not looking so good.
@Teddy
But that’s exactly how you’re supposed to look at it for the best picture. And because looking at baseball card stats is a dated and incomplete (though not completely useless) way to judge a player. This line of thinking is how you sign Chris Johnson to an extension when all his peripherals are screaming unsustainable.
This is also how FO people look at it. Do you judge the effectiveness of John Atkins based on his tackles, or do you need to dig deeper to see how a guy plays? It’s always similar, nothing happens in a vacuum.
I’m not saying he is mike trout. And I’m not saying he has had a good 2018 so far. I’m just saying hes an adequate right handed bench bat and can platoon some in left field, and will probably play more like he did in 2017 going forward. He is comprehensively an average ish MLB producer that fills an area of need for the team. And again, we literally got him for nothing of any value to us.
Got it, I’ll pay little attention to batting average and on base percentage (since those stats we’re created awhile ago), and more attention to launch angle. Atkins is an apples and oranges comparison. When you bat you need to have productive numbers as you are by yourself at the plate, versus 11 guys all playing at the same time on one play.
Nice, that’ll definitely help! Just remember that wrc+ (Weighed runs created) is the real metric for offense and effectively blends all the production stats together to give an idea of production. But you’re on your way with the launch angle thing, it matters!
This is what I tried getting across to ppl because none of the other 3 were in the future plans for the Braves. Sooner or later he'll drop a few bombs and even if one is enough to pull out a W where it otherwise would have been a loss; then the trade was worth it.
Yeah, totally agree. I feel like maybe people think this was a trade to get a new starter and are disappointed in his numbers but that’s not what it was.
I didn’t expect Duvall to be a starter. Just expected him to bat above .200. Didn’t know that was too much to ask from a major leaguer. But now I know, just because he gets out all the time he is way better than that. All those unproductive outs are actually good... PS: I believe in many of the advanced metrics/stats, like bunting, pitchouts, intentional walks are more harmful than good, etc. etc... also, I know Duvall has one more year on his deal, but Tucker who was traded away beats Duvall in all your important stats you listed.
Yeah tucker has had a better year so far offensively for sure. I think they just wanted a right handed bench bat. But theyve gotta be buying into him improving those numbers and looking more like he did last year and the year before that. And he has some peripheral stats supporting the argument that he hasn’t become bad yet.
But don’t be so snarky! We are both right anyway. You’re totally right that he’s been bad this year so far, but there are some reasons to think he will bounce back.
Both Tucker and Mike Reed are better hitters.
Who needs a Rob Deer/Dave Kingman type. Put the ball in play!