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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
Agree April alone is currently 58k+ with more to come and the 60k flu was an exception with a norm of around half that amount annually (There was less than 4k by March 31st). Current reported deaths are way understated. Does anyone still believe there were only 60 deaths in PR from the hurricane?
Exactly where I stand. This whole situation you're dämned if you do and dämned if you don't.
Guys. GUYS...I was not trying to compare covid to the normal azz flu in terms of severity....
I was simply, in a SIMPLE example...referring to the victimless crime points....that not wearing a mask in a normal year could also kill someone..... AND I was only bringing it up as a SIMPLE example of a slippery slope.... despite it being extremely unlikely and not truly something to worry about...it still makes logical sense when considering the idea that not wearing a mask right now should be considered a crime to some of you (the reasoning behind it is because your cough could kill someone)... I dont disagree with wearing a mask...i was stating some points to better explain the fears some folks have about new laws in a time of crisis. The mask law was an easy one and not one i think we should worry about.
annual deaths from airborne contagions in the US: roughly 100k/year from the big 3 (Flu 50k ish, Pneumonia 40k ish, and TB 10k ish). All three are spread via cough or sneeze. this isnt counting hospitalizations or potential life long affects, just the death toll...should we wear a mask year round? thats a lot of victims... every life counts right? <<< I was simply stating that a law about year round masks for health and safety could easily be suggested...its pretty simple logic when considering anything which can cause a victim should have a law about it....
holy moly... covid isnt the normal flu.... no chit.... AGAIN i was just pointing out a logical train of thought someone in power might have....
reminder im on yalls side about the safety thing...and i think we should all be wearing masks right now until we know if we are immune and not contagious anymore.... BUT I don't think we should arrest people for it.
closing every business in town except for 4 stores wasn't a brilliant idea either (lets make everyone have to use the same 4 places to get stuff)....but hey someone in gov thought so... HA
Isn't the flu season basically the winter and early spring? So those 60k deaths you keep mentioning is largely over the course of a few months, right? A quick look at the CDC data seemed to suggest this is the case.
I'm not saying the coronavirus isn't worse than the flu, but I feel like the comparison should be made in an unbiased way.
I want to play cornhole while watching games this fall... hopefully we get this all figured out by then.
sending all of you good vibes/prayers and hope you and your families are doing okay.
Be Safe! or dont. up to you! but I wish you all the very best!
we will know soon enough in GA...should be some more data in the coming weeks.
Typically it's over 5 months +/-. Since 2010 the deaths have varied from 12k to 61k (CDC) with low-mid 30k being average. That equates to around 6k per month. The virus has resulted in a minimum of 60k deaths in April with no guarantee that it will go away anytime soon. Even if it goes to a large extent and only comes back for 5 months this winter then that could lead to 300,000+ deaths over the season (5 months). There is nothing biased about it. Indeed I think to compare 1 month with a peak year of the last 10 years is hardly fair.
Have what may be bad news for you. It's hot here year round and April/May are the hottest months of the year. Currently 95 degrees everyday. Covid was a late arrival here so we're just entering our upward trajectory but we are definitely getting more everyday. Who knows what it would be if it were cooler, but for those that think this is just going to go away when the weather gets warmer......nah. Sorry @Denmen185 . Not directed at you. Couldn't get you off here.
Again, I'm not saying the flu is as bad as coronavirus. I just get tired of the saying the 60k was over a whole year when it was actually like 5 months.
It would be an interesting economic experiment to create a market for coronavirus betting lines. Let people put their money where there mouth is on certain statistics. I believe a lot more transparency would result with regard to information.
Exactly. My wife's coworker was saying that the Philippines were getting hit at 100+ degrees and it's reported that Mexico is having problems (hardly a cold climate). It seems to thrive in the body at 98.6 so why would it be effected by warm climate. Also when have you even been in a restaurant/grocery store where it's sunny and 100 degrees!
GrayDawg, can I ask you a question? I agree that the flu typically kills people in the winter/early spring. I don't think we know if there is a season for Covid19.
Let's say there is a season for it like the flu, I'm guessing comparing the deaths in flu season to deaths in Covid19 season would make sense?
And if there is not a season to Covid19, does it make the most sense to compare 5 months of Covid19 to the flu or a year of each knowing that the flu has peaks and low seasons? If we use 5 months of Covid19 to 5 months of flu, what do we do with the other 7 months of Covid19 deaths?
And by the way, what a f&%ed up type of conversation to be having. So morbid. I just got to throw in a Go Dawgs! to brighten things up.
Good idea. Let's make it a board game. Could be bigger than monopoly. Maybe get a patent.
That just goes to my point that we don't know enough about the virus to really compare it to anything with any meaningful conclusions to be drawn. I won't assume that the COVID-19 deaths in the month of April will be representative of the average going forward because we don't know that. At best, we can look at the countries that were hit a month or two before the US, but that still is a tiny sample size. I just feels like people are assuming the worst which goes completely against my nature.
Are any of you being asked to return to work? GA residents*
Im curious of those here that may be in the retail/restaurant/etc fields, and how you and your employers are proceeding in the coming days regarding Kemp allowing businesses to reopen and not adding days to the shelter in place mandates... ya'll doing okay? ya'll feeling okay about this? How is the fellow dawgnation fam doing? Praying/sending good vibes to yall!
I agree we don't know enough to extrapolate April. A lot depends on how we are counting cases and how well we avoid a second wave of infections through wearing masks, sociali distancing, etc. It is never easy, but we have to find the balance between reacting too quickly to inaccurate informaton and not reacting fast enough because we don't like the writing on the wall. Extrapolating April is probably overexxagerating. So is on February 27th saying 0 Covid19 deaths and that this is made up hysteria. In the end, I think we pay attention to what epidemiologists are saying and not politicians or the media.
Month end summary
Last column is total deaths as at April 30th as a % of Cases as at April 20th to allow for an average lag (SWAG) between positive tests and death/recovery.
Edit: Over/Under for May deaths 45,000