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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
I am going to compare the deaths with a date of death July 1st through July 31st as at August 1st report with the dates of death for that period as we go forward. I am not interested whether or not my prediction is right (it most likely isn't) other than to what extent the prediction model needs to be adjusted. I am more interested in to what extent the deaths reported as of August 1st is understated which if I recall is something you asked me a few days ago.
Follow up - this is how I intend to track the data.
When I started to enter what I thought would be good data for the first week is when I found that 6 of the 7 days were different to what I had logged on July 12th. I started as the numbers drop off the graph at 30 days and I didn't want to miss a number due to that. There may well be future adjustments that don't get caught because that day is no longer shown but hopefully that will be minimal. For instance July 1st will no longer be shown after tomorrow so it's best to have something rather than nothing in the event I forget to log it tomorrow.
I just heard on 750 that Herman Cain has died.
Odd that the data goes away like that. I appreciate your efforts to better organize this stuff.
FL is still the key CV state to watch right now imo. I also thought the death rate would be a lot higher based on the population's age and the huge number of cases from the middle of June to the middle of July. We are right at the time it should be happening. However, hospital beds with CV patients as the primary diagnosis have actually improved a good bit over the last week, from almost 16% of total hospital beds occupied, to less than 14% occupied. ICU beds overall are just slightly better. I suspect they have a lot of CV patients in them. As I've pointed out, the pattern for CV has been that it rages for weeks and then it seems to burn out, and it might happen regardless of mitigation. Sweden is a great example, assuming something else isn't going on. If FL drops off soon, it could be following that same pattern and that might be great news for the country. There are a lot of interesting explanations as to why that could happen.
We aren't out of the woods yet, but the numbers are showing they might be dropping. It's too early to declare victory because they can turn around quickly and reverse the positive trend. At a minimum, hopefully the growth has leveled off.
FL cases by week (ending Mondays)
Testing is also showing a drop in % positivity, which along with less tests might be expected if less people are getting symptoms now.
You can buy a UVC light for your air handler now. I have one in mine. There is a lot of debate on whether it can kill a lot in the air that passes through, but it definitely keeps the coils and air handler sterilized. I think the breakthrough will come when they get these via cheap LED bulbs. My bulb is expensive and has to be replaced every two years. And my HVAC guy, who is good, said you don't want to be exposed to it.
That’s sad. Tough dude, beat stage 4 cancer prior.
Number 1 at something this time is bad..........
JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - Mississippi has the highest rate of positive COVID-19 tests in the country, data over the past 14 days shows.
A comparison of the 50 states (plus Washington, D.C.) was done on COVIDExitStrategy.org.
The data, pulled from multiple sources, shows a 21.7% of positive cases in the Magnolia State in the past two weeks, which is the highest in the United States.
Just three states--New York, Vermont and Maine--appear to be trending in the right direction.
The data also puts Mississippi at the highest rate of ICU capacity filled, with 98% of ICU beds occupied in the state. Alabama and Georgia are the only other states with ICUs filled above 90%.
More than 55,000 cases of the virus have been reported by Mississippi State Department of Health since March. Nearly 3% of those who have contracted the virus have died, which is slightly lower than the national average.
When I saw he was hospitalized a while back I got pretty worried about him. He fit the profile of some of the bad ones I see. I hate to see he passed.
In my county hospitalizations are at 10% of confirmed cases and deaths 1%. What we're not seeing is the number asymptomatic positive cases. That is a key statistic that seems to be missing from the data, unless I'm missing it.
I am not aware of any state showing asymptomatic cases as the tests won't show that and even if the data was recorded at time of test it would still not be able to tell asymptomatic versus pre-symptomatic.
In debate class we had to prepare arguments for both sides. Objectively, this fella has at least legitimized the perspective that treating some Covid patients with HCQ may have some benefits.
Well first post in a while but, COVID 19 has everyone worried for good reason. Some people have been let go from there jobs others have moved states bc of remote work.
my family made the best of and I can finally say I’m moving down south for good. I’m not moving to GA but moving to Hilton head to be close to the beach. Life handed us lemons and we made lemonade.
Stay safe and healthy!!
Cheers
You aren't missing it, which is why number of cases is not important. It's just a number the media can sensationalize.
Are the numbers out of Belarus believable? No lockdowns.
My be off topic and no its not COVID-19 but is interesting for Corona Virus.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/