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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Can I get an off topic then?
It really was. We could all do with a little more perspective. I've developed this theory over the years. Humans don't deal with a lack of adversity very well. It's like we're built to deal with severe amounts of it, so when it's lacking we start inventing stuff or at least making things bigger than they are. But when something major actually does hit we tend to buck up and be better versions of ourselves out of necessity. War, hurricanes, etc. Even the pandemic at first went well. Then it didn't really pan out to be as bad as it could of been (thankfully). That's about when the finger pointing started too.
Mamma always said idle hands are the devil's work.
This is interesting...
Florida Deaths.
The deaths reported for the 7 days July 1-7 was 339 many of which showed as June Date of Death. Even by the report July 12th the deaths with DOD of July 1-7 were 385. The "current" death total for that week now stands at 568 from today's report including another 10 added today. It should be noted that the report today includes a record 253 deaths of which only 18 show a DOD of yesterday.
Given the level of deaths over the last 7 days (1,068) the mind boggles at to how many deaths have occurred so far in July that have yet to be reported!
I will be monitoring the final tally for July as it changes through August.
That’s one way to reach your prediction.
Be sure to subtract deaths in July to account for June, if that’s how it works.
I’ve kind of halfway explored those for our business. I think the biggest value added for us would be perception. Some people are so scared to do anything that I figure any little bit might help.
The problem I see with those lights is that air particles don’t stay in one place. You can’t light up everything.
I’m surprised some of these comments don’t have more UV’s. 😃
Towards the bottom of the article the author is clear about the two primary issues, which is time to kill the virus (25 minutes with the light) and the potential side effects due to exposure, which are not known at this time.
I am going to compare the deaths with a date of death July 1st through July 31st as at August 1st report with the dates of death for that period as we go forward. I am not interested whether or not my prediction is right (it most likely isn't) other than to what extent the prediction model needs to be adjusted. I am more interested in to what extent the deaths reported as of August 1st is understated which if I recall is something you asked me a few days ago.
Follow up - this is how I intend to track the data.
When I started to enter what I thought would be good data for the first week is when I found that 6 of the 7 days were different to what I had logged on July 12th. I started as the numbers drop off the graph at 30 days and I didn't want to miss a number due to that. There may well be future adjustments that don't get caught because that day is no longer shown but hopefully that will be minimal. For instance July 1st will no longer be shown after tomorrow so it's best to have something rather than nothing in the event I forget to log it tomorrow.
I just heard on 750 that Herman Cain has died.
Odd that the data goes away like that. I appreciate your efforts to better organize this stuff.
FL is still the key CV state to watch right now imo. I also thought the death rate would be a lot higher based on the population's age and the huge number of cases from the middle of June to the middle of July. We are right at the time it should be happening. However, hospital beds with CV patients as the primary diagnosis have actually improved a good bit over the last week, from almost 16% of total hospital beds occupied, to less than 14% occupied. ICU beds overall are just slightly better. I suspect they have a lot of CV patients in them. As I've pointed out, the pattern for CV has been that it rages for weeks and then it seems to burn out, and it might happen regardless of mitigation. Sweden is a great example, assuming something else isn't going on. If FL drops off soon, it could be following that same pattern and that might be great news for the country. There are a lot of interesting explanations as to why that could happen.
We aren't out of the woods yet, but the numbers are showing they might be dropping. It's too early to declare victory because they can turn around quickly and reverse the positive trend. At a minimum, hopefully the growth has leveled off.
FL cases by week (ending Mondays)
Testing is also showing a drop in % positivity, which along with less tests might be expected if less people are getting symptoms now.
You can buy a UVC light for your air handler now. I have one in mine. There is a lot of debate on whether it can kill a lot in the air that passes through, but it definitely keeps the coils and air handler sterilized. I think the breakthrough will come when they get these via cheap LED bulbs. My bulb is expensive and has to be replaced every two years. And my HVAC guy, who is good, said you don't want to be exposed to it.
That’s sad. Tough dude, beat stage 4 cancer prior.