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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 4,952 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I like how he put his name and face with it, so I could look him up.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    @Bankwalker To give the complete picture I show my post of 7/17 where I explained how I got to the 28 days. It's not like I made it up today. In my post earlier I admit that I got it wrong (was running behind). It's either that or Florida is running further behind in reporting deaths than previously. The key in modelling something like this is to recognize your errors and adjust accordingly. What is your estimate for the end of the month and separately for August?

    BTW I am not expecting an answer based on previous attacks where you won't directly answer questions.

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 4,490 mod

    Front Line Hero speaks the truth. Sickness and death is not acceptable from a virus that could have been contained at it's source.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Give me a bit. Just got home and cooking dinner. Not sure what you mean because I do NOT avoid questions. Ask again. Might be tomorrow.

    Edit: Just baked a potato and don’t have any sour cream. This is BAD.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    One problem with his ideologically biased opinion : The state had 78 people die yesterday. The virus has spread equally across the entire state. The percentage cases in every county are nearly equal to the percentage of the states population in every county. You can actually confirm this on the Georgia covid site. So what this means is that of the 78 people who were reported dead yesterday, approximately 14 were in Dekalb or Fulton County. Yeah, sure there is a “lag” but the cases have held steady.

    Anyone know how many funeral homes are in Fulton and Dekalb? More than 14 and they ALL stay busy every day of the year.

  • PedroPedro Posts: 261 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Numberwise yesterday was bad worldwide. Today looks worse. Increasing deaths and cases.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 395 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I agree. There are local blogs in my area where people are saying we need to lockdown again completely no going anywhere till this dies out. Some of them work from home and feel like they can lockdown forever. I don't think they realize that the Company they work for relies on others buying goods etc. and continued lockdowns will affect all. Even local utility companies will have issues when people can't pay bills. No industry is immune.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I don't have the age group distribution of cases to make that prediction for Florida. I was previously requesting that from you for that purpose, but was only getting the number of cases above 55+. Recall that you posted those for me.

    I knew your numbers were going to be off back when you posted them on the 14th because you are using too broad of a CFR across all age groups for a new case grouping that has been heavily weighted under 40 years old. The average age of the early group was 65 vs the current wave that has been around 38-40.

    On that date, the number of new cases dating back to June 23 was 179,000, of which 43,000 were above age 55. You said that meant 7500 (4.1% CFR) should be expected to die, but you thought the number would be closer to 4500 for the reasons you listed. I was doing rough calculations in my head using the known CFR for similar age groups in Georgia, and had a number around 2300 without being able to discount for the number of cases between age 55-70. Georgia reports different age groups (18-29, 30-39, 40-49, etc) than Florida (25-34, 35-44, 45-54, etc) so it wasn't a direct comparison. We all know the case fatality rate drops substantially as patients get younger, and that drop really gets noticeable in Georgia at age 70, and again at age 50, and very sharply at each 10 year group down to age 18. Below that there is little testing being done.

    Another reason for a smaller CFR is that assisted care homes are doing a much better job of protecting those facilities. As many as half of the deaths in areas have been from AC facilities. Those places are low hanging fruit orchards for this disease.

    My method would be to calculate each age group individually based on the known CFR for that group, and then sum those products.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 395 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I thought the lockdown was so the hospitals could get prepared and flatten the curve and make this thing come in waves. Is he saying we should have locked down forever? What is the new narrative with a lockdown? Did the hospitals not take time to get prepared? Are we suppose to lockdown till a vaccine is ready and then hope people get the vaccine? I am lost now on what we need to do? I see masks everywhere in my area now, is that all we needed so now after the lag the numbers will drop?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The infections haven't increased in the younger group IMO. It was always there. Early on on hospitalized were test along with at risk which were 65+. If you only test 65+ people it is to be expevted that Cases would be almost exclusively in that age range. As testing has increased it has widened to anyone with symptoms so now includes younger people previously unable to get tested. Increased testing of NEW people will result in lower Positive rates, increased positives and lower CFR as more less severe cases are included.

    I posted data on age case trends yesterday

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 4,952 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    This Dr. is the chief medical officer for Athens Regional and was only talking about the two hospitals in Athens. Not all the major hospitals in Atlanta. As for only 200 hospitalizations for the entire state there were 447 new ones reported by GDH yesterday. If you google "fox 5 dr. Sinyard" you won't find any reporting from fox 5 but you will find the Facebook post you copied and pasted here.

    Fake News

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 4,643 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Bankwalker Here is the FL age breakout for cases, hosp, and deaths from yesterday:



  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • skidmarksskidmarks Posts: 1,895 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @YaleDawg

    what about the article posted next not the copy that quotes Sinyrd ? Is that fake news ...? Or is any news that doesn’t support your own narrative , fake news ....

    if you want to buy and add fear and hype ....it’s still America although they are trying to make **** sure it’s not ....Last chance Nov 3

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 4,952 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    From Dr Robert Sinyard…

    PAR (Piedmont Athens Regional Medical Center) is doing well. Vast majority of patients in hospital are NOT for Covid illnesses. Cardiac, neurology, needed surgeries are the major issues. We have seen increased covid patients but resources and staffing are good. Both hospitals in town have fluctuations in bed availability frequently throughout the year and that has been the case before Covid. The hospitals in town are doing well.


    This is the quote. Can you point to him saying there are only a total of 200 hospitalizations in the state are covid, that he was referring to major hospitals in Atlanta, and that news outlets are misleading you?

    The fact you had to reference something that wasn't Fox 5 should make you think something is off about the FB post you put on here

This discussion has been closed.