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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0



  • GeorgiaGirlGeorgiaGirl Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    If you look at the percentages, it doesn't matter that Europe is testing less. Going above 10% on positive tests is not great.

    I'd hold my horses on singing the praises of Europe anyway for at least one more month for being extremely selfless and being willing to go in a hard lockdown for months to crush the curve to nothing. Other places that have had their praises sung for them have had their case loads begin to rise. California and Israel, and a couple other places for starters (can't remember the countries off the top of my head). Heck, if 15-20% getting the virus doesn't cause a burnout (one theory), I'd be watching NYC pretty soon as well.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I am old enough to remember Ron DeSantis tooting his horn about how wrong the naysayers were to say Florida was going to be a problem 🤣

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,628 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Interesting points by all. I think one of the key questions right now is whether there is a lower HIT at work. Sweden sure makes a case for a low HIT and burnout, regardless of mitigation strategies. Most of the countries that have been hit hard have burned out fairly quickly. The countries that mitigated very hard are still subject to the case spike as soon as they open it back up. IMHO, Florida is the place to watch. Florida is just a bit more populous than NY, so it makes a nice comparison. FL has an older population than NY, so I don't think anyone can argue against a reduced death rate in summer versus winter. If NY hit burnout at about 400K cases, then FL should be peaking in the next couple of weeks and we should start going down in August. There are a lot of variables, though, and as I've said, I believe we may have different HITs for different times of the year--exactly the same as with cold and flu season. If Florida keeps growing at 40%, then we can't argue for a lower HIT, and we can argue for a lockdown. I am cautiously optimistic that we will see cases going down soon, but I still have an open mind about what is really happening.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,628 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Those are great questions, but they will take a lot of time to answer if they are ever answered. Anecdotally, my wife knows one of the passengers who tested positive on that early cruise ship off of Japan. She was in her 70's and completely asymptomatic, as in she would never have suspected illness if they hadn't tested her. Her husband was with her in the same cabin (until the test) and he never tested positive. So, is it that asymptomatics are less contagious, that some people have immunity and will never test positive, or that asymptomatics have a different strain? I would lean toward two and then maybe one, but that is a WAG.

  • BumBum Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    My take...

    There are NEVER apples to apples comparisons, whether between countries, states, counties...heck even between my family and my next door neighbors. Decisions must be made on principle. Americans thrive on the principle of Individual Freedom, the ability to make decisions we determine best for ourselves and our families. Central Planning has proven throughout history to be ineffective. Yet here we are, expecting Central Planning to regulate a virus away. No matter the situation at hand, central planners cannot possibly take into consideration the lives AND livelihoods of all individuals subject to such planning. Are there extreme circumstances where Emergency Powers MUST be activated? Sure, such as war. Such as a "war" on an "invisible enemy"? I think not.

    What I believe will be learned, is the implementation of Emergency Powers must be done extremely carefully and rarely. Should ANY other course of action be available, it should be the goal to steer away from awarding Emergency Powers to Central Planners. When Emergency Powers are determined the only option, it should be done so as a result of a thorough debate, with expert representation from all walks of life subject to living under such powers, and with the understanding being to shed these powers at first opportunity to pursue a new course of action.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Florida update - Tested 47,644 NEW people yesterday of which 9,440 (19.8%) tested positive. Hospitalizations were 517 which likely includes some weekend catch-up but still high giving a 7 day average of 414 a new record. Deaths at 134 is in line with last Tuesday but likely has less catch-up than last week. The total for the last 7 days was 797 giving a 7 day average of 114 equaling yesterday's record high.

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,513 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    People are going to take this wrong and I absolutely do not mean to be critical of anyone..

    I completely agree with your argument......but many/most/some won't see it.....because it comes from the point of view of an entrepreneur or small business owner.

    I'm not suggesting in any way that people who don't own their own business ......don't work as hard.....of course many of them do.

    But business owners work differently and think differently......because there is no security blanket.

    And I believe that our country was founded on an entrepreneurial spirit.

    So many Americans are reliant on big brother (govt) or their employer. Again.....not suggesting that is wrong (as long as they are relying on their employer).....but it is different.

    Total shutdowns are easier for many.....they either have that security blanket or they at least have the ability to work from home.

    If it were announced that school teachers and coaches wouldn't be paid until kids are on campus......how quickly would schools open?

    Most....if not all....of the politicians making decisions about shutting down.....are doing so from a position of security.

    @Bum....many on here know exactly where you are coming from......others simply don't see things the same way.....and that is unfortunate

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,513 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Would you compare the feeling to the flu? Better/worse or about the same.

    Glad to hear you may be turning the corner...hoping it gets better quickly.

  • DvilleDawgDvilleDawg Posts: 2,580 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I want to know what happened to the heat and humidity was going to kill this thing theory? It's freaking 98 degrees in NE Georgia.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,628 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Yeah, AZ is having an all time heat blast and they are spiking, while FL is seeing typical high 70s dew points and we are getting a big spike. I think the heat and humidity theory is in serious trouble. On a different note, I thought Yale was joking around with the cucumber vs. CV 19 graph, but I saw a discussion about the study today. It was from Europe. I guess they think cucumbers are good and cabbage is even better. So, all the guys who have it on this thread, get going on the cabbage and cucumbers, and go out on the back porch and get a nice tan in your easy chair with a quart sized hydration bottle.

  • Mia_Dade06Mia_Dade06 Posts: 1,062 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Similar, I’ve definitely felt worse before but it’s not fun. My understanding is that if you don’t have it bad, like hospitalization bad then it’s usually about 5-6 days of feeling bad followed by another 5-6 days of mild lingering symptoms. Once the fever goes away I think I’ll be fine and will want to continue exercising.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The lockdowns have been most effective in areas of China. Amazingly there, some positive cases didn't even exist 24 hours later.

    So, if we are going to judge effectiveness of mitigation on lack of transmission only, I say we go with their model. We can have this thing under control in no time. Because our #1 goal should always be control.

    It's always entertaining to see overarching governmental opinions seep into our comments! Someone should write a book...

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 6,753 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    If you want talk about gov overreach, make a new thread where everyone can talk about lockdowns and the kidnappings in Portland.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    At least everyone seems to agree on that! 🤣

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Plenty of theories on how heat and sunshine may be responsible for the lower death rates. I’m a believer. Maybe I should knock on wood or shouldn’t tempt fate, but I feel the heat and sunshine are why @Denmen185 ’s predictions for July deaths in Florida are going to be well short of the mark. Deaths need to almost double in Florida over the next 10 days to reach his predictions, and that was even after he cut the known case fatality rate nearly in half for his model, over what the previous numbers would have predicted.

  • BumBum Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    "This thread is mostly for hearing from those personally affected by COVID-19 and getting updates to see how members of Dawgnation are doing."

    This is rule #1 in your original post. In fact its the reason I decided to engage in this thread. Does economic impact of COVID on a business I own not fit this criteria?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    FWIW my projection was 4,072 for July which after today is 204 behind after losing 208 over the last 3 days.

    EDIT This projection was based on a 20 day lag. Based on the study I did last week where I examined the relationship between doubling cases and doubling deaths I came up with 28 day lag. I will use this for August after I validate July actual broadly supports this change.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 6,753 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I never commented on your posts telling you to stop. Don't go looking to be a victim. I was referring to the political aspect of what is an acceptable level of government control in our lives which has nothing to do with whether a lockdown works.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Portland stuff is not good...


    Let me make sure you are saying what you are saying...

    You are comparing what is going on in Portland with what happens in CHINA...

    You think ANY government over-reach (which is quite rare for some who LOVE political overreach in general - pot/kettle...) in this country can be put in the same paragraph with what happens in CHINA? They just kill you when they want to...

    I love your posts... But you whiffed on this...

This discussion has been closed.