Hey folks - as a member of the DawgNation community, please remember to abide by simple rules of civil engagement with other members:
- Please no inappropriate usernames (remember that there may be youngsters in the room)
- Personal attacks on other community members are unacceptable, practice the good manners your mama taught you when engaging with fellow Dawg fans
- Use common sense and respect personal differences in the community: sexual and other inappropriate language or imagery, political rants and belittling the opinions of others will get your posts deleted and result in warnings and/ or banning from the forum
- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
- Please no inappropriate usernames (remember that there may be youngsters in the room)
- Personal attacks on other community members are unacceptable, practice the good manners your mama taught you when engaging with fellow Dawg fans
- Use common sense and respect personal differences in the community: sexual and other inappropriate language or imagery, political rants and belittling the opinions of others will get your posts deleted and result in warnings and/ or banning from the forum
- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Yeah, AZ is having an all time heat blast and they are spiking, while FL is seeing typical high 70s dew points and we are getting a big spike. I think the heat and humidity theory is in serious trouble. On a different note, I thought Yale was joking around with the cucumber vs. CV 19 graph, but I saw a discussion about the study today. It was from Europe. I guess they think cucumbers are good and cabbage is even better. So, all the guys who have it on this thread, get going on the cabbage and cucumbers, and go out on the back porch and get a nice tan in your easy chair with a quart sized hydration bottle.
Similar, I’ve definitely felt worse before but it’s not fun. My understanding is that if you don’t have it bad, like hospitalization bad then it’s usually about 5-6 days of feeling bad followed by another 5-6 days of mild lingering symptoms. Once the fever goes away I think I’ll be fine and will want to continue exercising.
The lockdowns have been most effective in areas of China. Amazingly there, some positive cases didn't even exist 24 hours later.
So, if we are going to judge effectiveness of mitigation on lack of transmission only, I say we go with their model. We can have this thing under control in no time. Because our #1 goal should always be control.
It's always entertaining to see overarching governmental opinions seep into our comments! Someone should write a book...
If you want talk about gov overreach, make a new thread where everyone can talk about lockdowns and the kidnappings in Portland.
At least everyone seems to agree on that! 🤣
Plenty of theories on how heat and sunshine may be responsible for the lower death rates. I’m a believer. Maybe I should knock on wood or shouldn’t tempt fate, but I feel the heat and sunshine are why @Denmen185 ’s predictions for July deaths in Florida are going to be well short of the mark. Deaths need to almost double in Florida over the next 10 days to reach his predictions, and that was even after he cut the known case fatality rate nearly in half for his model, over what the previous numbers would have predicted.
"This thread is mostly for hearing from those personally affected by COVID-19 and getting updates to see how members of Dawgnation are doing."
This is rule #1 in your original post. In fact its the reason I decided to engage in this thread. Does economic impact of COVID on a business I own not fit this criteria?
FWIW my projection was 4,072 for July which after today is 204 behind after losing 208 over the last 3 days.
EDIT This projection was based on a 20 day lag. Based on the study I did last week where I examined the relationship between doubling cases and doubling deaths I came up with 28 day lag. I will use this for August after I validate July actual broadly supports this change.
I never commented on your posts telling you to stop. Don't go looking to be a victim. I was referring to the political aspect of what is an acceptable level of government control in our lives which has nothing to do with whether a lockdown works.
Portland stuff is not good...
HOWEVER...
Let me make sure you are saying what you are saying...
You are comparing what is going on in Portland with what happens in CHINA...
You think ANY government over-reach (which is quite rare for some who LOVE political overreach in general - pot/kettle...) in this country can be put in the same paragraph with what happens in CHINA? They just kill you when they want to...
I love your posts... But you whiffed on this...
And it's a bad take, because I was reacting to Den's post on on the "positive" impact of (too much?) government over-reach...
Can't have a good discussion if you don't pay attention. Or if you bring in stuff that has nothing to do with Covid...
I agree. Summer sunshine can strengthen our immune systems by raising our vitamin D levels. Heat, humidity, and winter sunshine north of about the Carolinas, not so much. As a comparison, NY and FL have close to the same populations, with FL having a couple of million more. FL has a much higher number and percentage of 65+ citizens. FL is approaching NY in total cases and will probably pass NY in the next couple of weeks. NY has ~6X the deaths of FL. FL will increase over the next month, but they likely won't get close to NY in total deaths. NY's high death rates are typical of Europe's numbers, so it isn't just NY. Again, FL has the high risk population and should have a much higher number of deaths. I think getting the spike during July is going to be the best time of the year to have it, especially if we begin to get virus burnout in the next few weeks. Following Sweden's model while mainly obtaining the HIT during summer might wind up being the wisest possible way get through CV 19, at least until we get a vaccine.
With all due respect, sir. Nope. Here is your projection for July. Don’t start playing funny business with your numbers on us. We have enough trouble with the inconsistencies out of FDOH. The below post was from July 14th.
“It is extremely misleading to look at the raw Deaths/Cases to draw a conclusion on fatality rate of the virus. For Florida these raw numbers to date are 4,277 Deaths and 282,435 Cases giving a rate of 1.5%. However even using only a 20 day lag between case to deaths the rate is very different, The deaths so far are obviously still 4,277 but the "related' cases becomes 103,503 (total at June 23rd) giving a rate of 4.1%. Another way to look at it would be that at the rate so far there are approximately 7,500 Floridians that already have tested positive will die over the next 20 days. I do believe that the improvement in testing and treatment since April will reduce this number but still be around 4,500. The July prediction on deaths is 4,631 (currently 772) assuming that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed.
Disclaimer: These numbers could be higher depending on the number of positives behind due to the delay in processing tests.”
So as everyone can see, on that date Florida was at 4277, of which you said 772 were since July 1. That means you were at 3505 to start the month. 3505 + 4631 = 8136 target.
Done another way, 4631-772 = 3859 + 4277 = 8136 target.
Current total is 5206, which leaves you 2930 deaths short of your documented prediction, with 10 days to go.
Yep. If there aren’t enough deaths in the time period for which you've modeled, just add more deaths by lengthening the lag variable to one not previously used. Because it simply cannot be that significantly fewer people are dying.
New records for 2nd straight day. This is not going away with a 100 degree heat index is not slowing it down one bit.
From the Sun Herald:
Mississippi’s state health department surpassed its highest single-day number for new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday with 1,635 and an additional 31 deaths.
The single-day total was a staggering figure considering Mississippi set its previous high at 1,251 on Monday. The number of deaths is the most the state has announced since there were 44 on June 7.
The seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases has risen to a new record of 1,140.29.
Two months ago, the seven-day average was 248.43. It was 621.29 at the end of June.
The number of people hospitalized with confirmed cases hit all time high at 943. There were another 211 in hospitals with suspected cases of COVID-19.
The total patients in intensive care, or ICU, also set a new high mark at 293. Another 140 were on ventilators — a drop of three from Monday’s numbers.