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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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I started tracking the age distribution of Florida cases June 19th. See table
All time until 6/19 the 55+ had 30909 cases or 35.3% of the 87643 total resident cases. The 14 days 6/20 to 7/3 there were 18,283 cases representing 20.8% of the total. The 14 days beginning July 4th show the cases increasing to 37,131 (more than double) with the % cases over 55 rising to 25.2%.
Given that the most vulnerable are our seniors, I would expect the deaths in Florida to continue to rise and exceed 200 per day by months end if not sooner.
FWIW The last 3 days are averaging 3,084 above 55 which is just over 28% of the total cases so August is likely even higher. This could be made worse by the shortage of Remdesivir in SFL. 9,000 August deaths would not surprise me one bit.
The author of the article is a contributor to econlib, but the article was originally published in the Wall Street Journal. Per his agreement with the WSJ he posted the article on the blog to allow it to be accessed outside of the paywall (again, with the permission of the WSJ). Attacking the messenger is avoiding discussion.
The argument isn't that lockdowns don't slow the virus. The argument is the cost of a lockdown as compared to the cost of not going into lockdown. Too many are putting on blinders to the costs associated with combating this virus. That doesn't mean the virus isn't a problem to be dealt with, but it is not the only issue in the world that needs dealing with and by focusing too intently on stopping the virus we create more issues still.
Initially, the models suggested a lockdown was a good choice from a cost benefit standpoint. As more data comes out, that is not proving to be the case. Just as the original models had to make assumptions, so do the current models. However, the current models have real world data to guide them that simply was not available 4 months ago.
As I said in an earlier post the proof of the pudding will be seen as States and Countries "recover".
I thought the idea was saving lives? All of those areas have more deaths than the rest of the US per million. Why does it matter when someone dies when keeping score?
Testing in Europe is well below the US, especially compared to areas like Florida and Georgia. It will be interesting to see what happens there. The testing rate in Europe is about the same as it was in April (lower in some countries). They are testing below 1 per 1000 a day, and cases are rising in Germany.
Then there is Sweden and NE, where it is a legitimate thought that perhaps their current situations mirror the rest of the EU because the virus has already hit the majority of susceptible people in those areas. If it hasn’t then I don’t see how they avoid a second wave.
Israel was successful. Now look. They were down to 5 new cases a day and were testing a lot.
The countries/areas with the high deaths had much less warning than those that are peaking today and subsequently were late in locking down.
How many tests were run in Europe yesterday and how does the positivity rate compare? Here the US rate is skewed by over testing in the NE and woeful under testing in the sunbelt.
If you look at the percentages, it doesn't matter that Europe is testing less. Going above 10% on positive tests is not great.
I'd hold my horses on singing the praises of Europe anyway for at least one more month for being extremely selfless and being willing to go in a hard lockdown for months to crush the curve to nothing. Other places that have had their praises sung for them have had their case loads begin to rise. California and Israel, and a couple other places for starters (can't remember the countries off the top of my head). Heck, if 15-20% getting the virus doesn't cause a burnout (one theory), I'd be watching NYC pretty soon as well.
I am old enough to remember Ron DeSantis tooting his horn about how wrong the naysayers were to say Florida was going to be a problem 🤣
Interesting points by all. I think one of the key questions right now is whether there is a lower HIT at work. Sweden sure makes a case for a low HIT and burnout, regardless of mitigation strategies. Most of the countries that have been hit hard have burned out fairly quickly. The countries that mitigated very hard are still subject to the case spike as soon as they open it back up. IMHO, Florida is the place to watch. Florida is just a bit more populous than NY, so it makes a nice comparison. FL has an older population than NY, so I don't think anyone can argue against a reduced death rate in summer versus winter. If NY hit burnout at about 400K cases, then FL should be peaking in the next couple of weeks and we should start going down in August. There are a lot of variables, though, and as I've said, I believe we may have different HITs for different times of the year--exactly the same as with cold and flu season. If Florida keeps growing at 40%, then we can't argue for a lower HIT, and we can argue for a lockdown. I am cautiously optimistic that we will see cases going down soon, but I still have an open mind about what is really happening.
Those are great questions, but they will take a lot of time to answer if they are ever answered. Anecdotally, my wife knows one of the passengers who tested positive on that early cruise ship off of Japan. She was in her 70's and completely asymptomatic, as in she would never have suspected illness if they hadn't tested her. Her husband was with her in the same cabin (until the test) and he never tested positive. So, is it that asymptomatics are less contagious, that some people have immunity and will never test positive, or that asymptomatics have a different strain? I would lean toward two and then maybe one, but that is a WAG.
My take...
There are NEVER apples to apples comparisons, whether between countries, states, counties...heck even between my family and my next door neighbors. Decisions must be made on principle. Americans thrive on the principle of Individual Freedom, the ability to make decisions we determine best for ourselves and our families. Central Planning has proven throughout history to be ineffective. Yet here we are, expecting Central Planning to regulate a virus away. No matter the situation at hand, central planners cannot possibly take into consideration the lives AND livelihoods of all individuals subject to such planning. Are there extreme circumstances where Emergency Powers MUST be activated? Sure, such as war. Such as a "war" on an "invisible enemy"? I think not.
What I believe will be learned, is the implementation of Emergency Powers must be done extremely carefully and rarely. Should ANY other course of action be available, it should be the goal to steer away from awarding Emergency Powers to Central Planners. When Emergency Powers are determined the only option, it should be done so as a result of a thorough debate, with expert representation from all walks of life subject to living under such powers, and with the understanding being to shed these powers at first opportunity to pursue a new course of action.
Florida update - Tested 47,644 NEW people yesterday of which 9,440 (19.8%) tested positive. Hospitalizations were 517 which likely includes some weekend catch-up but still high giving a 7 day average of 414 a new record. Deaths at 134 is in line with last Tuesday but likely has less catch-up than last week. The total for the last 7 days was 797 giving a 7 day average of 114 equaling yesterday's record high.
People are going to take this wrong and I absolutely do not mean to be critical of anyone..
I completely agree with your argument......but many/most/some won't see it.....because it comes from the point of view of an entrepreneur or small business owner.
I'm not suggesting in any way that people who don't own their own business ......don't work as hard.....of course many of them do.
But business owners work differently and think differently......because there is no security blanket.
And I believe that our country was founded on an entrepreneurial spirit.
So many Americans are reliant on big brother (govt) or their employer. Again.....not suggesting that is wrong (as long as they are relying on their employer).....but it is different.
Total shutdowns are easier for many.....they either have that security blanket or they at least have the ability to work from home.
If it were announced that school teachers and coaches wouldn't be paid until kids are on campus......how quickly would schools open?
Most....if not all....of the politicians making decisions about shutting down.....are doing so from a position of security.
@Bum....many on here know exactly where you are coming from......others simply don't see things the same way.....and that is unfortunate
Day 3 of really feeling symptoms. Fever has gone down from this morning from 100.2 to 99.7. Feel about 10% better but symptoms have now changed to extreme sensitivity in the eye region. Hurts to look outside without sunglasses. Still have body aches but a little less. More headache today but appetite seems to be picking up again.
Would you compare the feeling to the flu? Better/worse or about the same.
Glad to hear you may be turning the corner...hoping it gets better quickly.
I want to know what happened to the heat and humidity was going to kill this thing theory? It's freaking 98 degrees in NE Georgia.