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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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FWIW my projection was 4,072 for July which after today is 204 behind after losing 208 over the last 3 days.
EDIT This projection was based on a 20 day lag. Based on the study I did last week where I examined the relationship between doubling cases and doubling deaths I came up with 28 day lag. I will use this for August after I validate July actual broadly supports this change.
I never commented on your posts telling you to stop. Don't go looking to be a victim. I was referring to the political aspect of what is an acceptable level of government control in our lives which has nothing to do with whether a lockdown works.
Portland stuff is not good...
HOWEVER...
Let me make sure you are saying what you are saying...
You are comparing what is going on in Portland with what happens in CHINA...
You think ANY government over-reach (which is quite rare for some who LOVE political overreach in general - pot/kettle...) in this country can be put in the same paragraph with what happens in CHINA? They just kill you when they want to...
I love your posts... But you whiffed on this...
And it's a bad take, because I was reacting to Den's post on on the "positive" impact of (too much?) government over-reach...
Can't have a good discussion if you don't pay attention. Or if you bring in stuff that has nothing to do with Covid...
I agree. Summer sunshine can strengthen our immune systems by raising our vitamin D levels. Heat, humidity, and winter sunshine north of about the Carolinas, not so much. As a comparison, NY and FL have close to the same populations, with FL having a couple of million more. FL has a much higher number and percentage of 65+ citizens. FL is approaching NY in total cases and will probably pass NY in the next couple of weeks. NY has ~6X the deaths of FL. FL will increase over the next month, but they likely won't get close to NY in total deaths. NY's high death rates are typical of Europe's numbers, so it isn't just NY. Again, FL has the high risk population and should have a much higher number of deaths. I think getting the spike during July is going to be the best time of the year to have it, especially if we begin to get virus burnout in the next few weeks. Following Sweden's model while mainly obtaining the HIT during summer might wind up being the wisest possible way get through CV 19, at least until we get a vaccine.
With all due respect, sir. Nope. Here is your projection for July. Don’t start playing funny business with your numbers on us. We have enough trouble with the inconsistencies out of FDOH. The below post was from July 14th.
“It is extremely misleading to look at the raw Deaths/Cases to draw a conclusion on fatality rate of the virus. For Florida these raw numbers to date are 4,277 Deaths and 282,435 Cases giving a rate of 1.5%. However even using only a 20 day lag between case to deaths the rate is very different, The deaths so far are obviously still 4,277 but the "related' cases becomes 103,503 (total at June 23rd) giving a rate of 4.1%. Another way to look at it would be that at the rate so far there are approximately 7,500 Floridians that already have tested positive will die over the next 20 days. I do believe that the improvement in testing and treatment since April will reduce this number but still be around 4,500. The July prediction on deaths is 4,631 (currently 772) assuming that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed.
Disclaimer: These numbers could be higher depending on the number of positives behind due to the delay in processing tests.”
So as everyone can see, on that date Florida was at 4277, of which you said 772 were since July 1. That means you were at 3505 to start the month. 3505 + 4631 = 8136 target.
Done another way, 4631-772 = 3859 + 4277 = 8136 target.
Current total is 5206, which leaves you 2930 deaths short of your documented prediction, with 10 days to go.
Yep. If there aren’t enough deaths in the time period for which you've modeled, just add more deaths by lengthening the lag variable to one not previously used. Because it simply cannot be that significantly fewer people are dying.
New records for 2nd straight day. This is not going away with a 100 degree heat index is not slowing it down one bit.
From the Sun Herald:
Mississippi’s state health department surpassed its highest single-day number for new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday with 1,635 and an additional 31 deaths.
The single-day total was a staggering figure considering Mississippi set its previous high at 1,251 on Monday. The number of deaths is the most the state has announced since there were 44 on June 7.
The seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases has risen to a new record of 1,140.29.
Two months ago, the seven-day average was 248.43. It was 621.29 at the end of June.
The number of people hospitalized with confirmed cases hit all time high at 943. There were another 211 in hospitals with suspected cases of COVID-19.
The total patients in intensive care, or ICU, also set a new high mark at 293. Another 140 were on ventilators — a drop of three from Monday’s numbers.
You intentionally whiffed on understanding. I was talking about lockdowns in America.
No one has ever suggested locking down like China. Everyone knew that only worked because of their totalitarian government.
Let's just chalk it up to a misunderstanding and move on. Thanks in advance.
I'm not trying to play a victim, only trying to understand if what you really want is a different thread devoted to economic impact. Because my (and tens of millions of others) personal impact of COVID is economic (so far anyway)...as a direct result of government policies, so by definition political. I see no way of voicing my personal impact from COVID and avoiding topics seen as political.
Just making sure the "liberal America hater" **** doesn't start
No, economic impact is real and a valid topic for how we should address COVID-19. I was referring to the political aspect of "how much government control is too much" that's a separate topic.
Edit: most democratic countries knew we would not respond the same way as china, so there really isn't a reason to discuss it as it was never an option.
I’ve noticed a trend with their reporting. They like to use dramatic verbage, such as “staggeringly high” to describe a total that represents a small fraction of the population.
The question I would want to ask is regarding the statement
“The number of cases with hospitalized patients with confirmed cases of covid hit an alltime high...”
You also see this with Florida Florida reports 400 new hospitalizations a day under one metric. Then the CDC says 9400 Floridians are in the hospital WITH covid. We know the average stay was 11-14 days back in April Now it is under 5 days . So even at 400 (which is a recent growth trend) times a 14 day stay, that’s only 4800 patients if NOBODY gets released
So this is just the media AND the dang CDC playing tricks with numbers by including all of the people who are admitted for something different but test positive. They ALL get labeled as a covid hospitalization It is an effective scare tactic
So according to the article, less than one third reported headaches. Great detective work, champ. Really groundbreaking stuff.
Also from the article: “Although headaches have been reported with the donning of objects with straps, such as helmets (8, 9), goggles (10) and brassieres (11), its association with the N95 face-mask have not been previously described”
This just in: PPE is unhealthy because it can cause headaches. What a headline. I guess no one should ever wear PPE.
Do you ever read past headlines? I swear this is like the third or fourth time I’ve asked you this.