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Comments
Yeah, it always seems like that. But if we want to get him that might not even be enough. I posted earlier in this thread about a theoretical Realmuto to the Braves trade if you remember.
If you get on base at a high rate and average around 60 extra base hits, you'll be a very valuable hitter.
It would be great if you had 8 #3 type hitters and if you have a weak lineup overall, you need more hrs from somewhere. The math works when you have a lot of good contact hitters to keep moving around the bases though.
During the height of the roid era The Yankees dominated without any big bashers because they were loaded with excellent contact hitters.
Nick is a good player, but he has been hitting cleanup and this is not where he belongs in a MLB lineup. Need a cleanup hitter and Nick would be a good sixth place hitter. Freeman had great power numbers with Kemp at cleanup last year 2017.
I mean, I’ll buy that premise to an extent. If you want to show me that math I’d like to see it. Regardless we don’t have a team like that though.
2018 team stats
Hits - 2nd NL
Doubles - 2nd NL
Total Bases - 4th NL
OBP - 5th NL
Runs - 5th NL
We have that kind of lineup. We just need to repeat close to those numbers plus add another really good bat.
Hey maybe we are closer to Nick clones as a team than I thought.
But that is counter evidence to your point. If having more hits and doubles was an optimal combo for runs than you’d be higher than 5th in runs with the number 2 hits a doubles team. This basically shows you need more power....
At best this is just statistical noise, at worst it’s a case against a team of markakis clones.
That's a bit of a stretch, but of course HRs are good. We have 4 guys who are elite doubles hitters, not many if any teams have 4 top HR hitters.
I like Markakis and bringing him back would be fine, but history shows expecting a mid 30s players to repeat an outlier season is foolish. There definitely has to be a plan to replace him, sooner than later.
2018 was not an outlier year. His hrs were up a bit, but that is true all over MLB, the ball is juiced.
His hits, doubles and OBP have been pretty consistent throughout his 4 years in Atlanta. He also has zero injury concerns. I wouldn't be at all afraid of giving him a solid 2 or 3 year deal.
I don't know about a 1 starter, but a true set-up man, closer plus some reliable power would make me happy.
@WCDawg You have to face the facts that doubles and OBP are half the story, where the other half is not kind to nick. He defends poorly, and doesnt hit for much power.
I mean in 2017 he hit .275 with 39 doubles and an OBP of .354. Those numbers are good but he only had 8 homers, with an extra juiced ball in 2017, and this made him 6% below average offensively. He also had his worst defensive season ever. He accrued only 0.5 WAR in 670 plate appearances. That’s awful. I hope this convinces you that average OBP and doubles are an incomplete picture of a player.
So yeah he was pretty good this year but it’s hard to buy that he will be good again next year, much less 3 more years. Maybe he surprises me, I hope he does because I like him.
Doubles are power numbers, not as much as Hrs, but they are far more valuable than singles.
Look at total bases as well. If you're reducing baseball to mathematic purity it's a game of 27 outs in increments of 3 where the object is to have enough total bases within those increments of 3 outs to score runs. Markakis has averaged around 253 total bases over his 4 seasons with The Braves, that is a lot of advancing toward home plate. If you have a lineup with guys who have a lot of total bases, you're going to score a lot of runs.
In the history of the game, the only time age didn't win was during the steroid era.
To be honest you should look into how these numbers hold up against other people, because I feel like you don't understand that looks in context. Just saying he has 253 total bases is completely meaningless without context. You weren't even right by the way, he averaged 242.5 total bases per year over the last 4 years. If we divide this by his average at bats per year thats good for a 0.40 slugging percentage WHICH IS AN ENTIRE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW THE 2018 MEAN. If you think Nick gets more total bases per at bat than the majority of the league you are wrong.
In 2018, which is again his best year since 2011 offensively, Nick had a slugging percentage of 0.44. Hooray for his career year! But still this was only good for 69'th in the league. The league average among all qualified players was 0.447. Again, in terms of total bases, Nick is below average. Even in a career year. All he did better than average this year was get an base, with the 29'th best OBP. This is a valued commodity and why he was 14% above average by WRC+.
So we can revise your statement to "Markakis has averaged around 242.5 total bases over his 4 seasons with The Braves, that is a low amount of advancing toward home plate and if this stat matters that much we should try to upgrade right field".
I am sure your next comment will either be something about how getting on base is now the thing you value the most. But if you want to talk total aggregate offensive production stats you should really just look at the WRC+ stat in the future. Stats people are smart man you should probably trust them.
I normally don't enjoy never ending back and forth arguments on DN, but this one has been entertaining. Having heard both sides, King Solomon has concluded that the Braves should sign Markakis to a long-term big-money deal, then take him out back and shoot him.