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Atlanta Braves

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Comments

  • KirbstomperKirbstomper Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @donm said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @BoroDawg said:

    @georgiaboy said:
    Sign the Marlins catcher (JT Realmuto), resign Markakis and shore up the bull pen and watch us go!

    Considering Realmuto isn’t a free agent, don’t think we’ll be signing him... We could trade for him, but it would take multiple top 100 prospects to get him and trading with division rivals rarely happens.

    I count 9 pitchers still in our minor league system with trade value.
    Management could make 4 or 5 untouchable, then give The Marlins their pick any one of the rest, and negotiate another player or 2 to add to the package.

    So I’m pretty studied up on this stuff and also am in favor of trading for Realmuto, so here’s my take on the trade. It’s going to take more than one of our non untouchable pitchers and “someone else”, where I’m assuming you mean one of our 15-30 ranked prospects.

    Realmuto hs 2 arbitration years left and was worth 4.8 WAR this year. He is a Freddie freeman caliber player with 2 years where he will probably get paid like 30-35 million total if I remember my arbitration salary stuff correctly. This puts what the industry calls his surplus value (value as a player minus contract) at like 45 Million, conservatively.

    Here is a bit of a dated look at our prospect valuations https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

    And here is a link to the value of prospects in surplus value https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

    That means the marlins would ask for 2 of our 55 grade pitching prospects, which is basically only soroka and Wright for sure. Maybe tuoki and Ian Anderson have a case for this grade as well, but so far I haven’t seen a 55 slapped on them yet. It would take 3 of our 50 grade pitchers which is the Wilson, fried, Wentz, Gohara plus the debateable Anderson and tuokki. Allard isn’t a 50 anymore, more likely a 40-45. We could also give one of our 55s and 2 50s. But all of these packages still come up a bit short, so we would then need to throw in another “someone else”. We could also try building a package around someone like Pache or Drew Waters, who will probably get some 55 grades after this season. Though I’d prefer to keep these guys if possible.

    Also, if the Marlins are shopping JT half the league is going to be interested, so it’ll take an overpay. If someone offers a 60 grade bat then we probably won’t match the offer. In short, The trade for him would hurt, but our organizational strength is upper level pitching specs so I’m in favor of making a move.

    We have a hitter or 2 with a 60 or better rating in 1 area of hitting, but not overall. Those are really rare at the minor league level.
    We're probably going to make any big trade with a starting pitcher as the center piece. I'm not sure which position players might be thrown in, Riley or Pache ? No doubt the cost will be high on paper, the actual cost won't be known till those guys develop into whatever they become.

    We've got the better end of most deals in recent years.

    They have Dansby as the 4th most valuable player. That makes their rankings suspect to me.

    This is a good point, and its important for people to understand. Fangraphs is a a fine source, their rankings on prospects is pretty solid. I am sure teams have their own rankings, but that reflects decently on industry consensus.

    The thing is...prospects are just such an unknown quantity. Especially pitchers. Even if you are ranked high, that doesn't mean you'll be a good player. Now higher graded position players are usually a safer bet than most, so Dansby is somewhat of a surprise. Not that he is bad; Dansby is still a roughly average major league shortstop, but the rankings were too bullish on him.

    So when someone says something like "We got Austin Riley, he will be the next Chipper" or something like that, it's getting your hopes up too high. When someone says that all our pitching prospects are going to end up being middle of the rotation or better pieces, they are probably over valuing our guys. Prospects usually end up not being super good major league players, that's just how it is.

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  • BigcalidawgBigcalidawg Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

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  • KirbstomperKirbstomper Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

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  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @donm said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @BoroDawg said:

    @georgiaboy said:
    Sign the Marlins catcher (JT Realmuto), resign Markakis and shore up the bull pen and watch us go!

    Considering Realmuto isn’t a free agent, don’t think we’ll be signing him... We could trade for him, but it would take multiple top 100 prospects to get him and trading with division rivals rarely happens.

    I count 9 pitchers still in our minor league system with trade value.
    Management could make 4 or 5 untouchable, then give The Marlins their pick any one of the rest, and negotiate another player or 2 to add to the package.

    So I’m pretty studied up on this stuff and also am in favor of trading for Realmuto, so here’s my take on the trade. It’s going to take more than one of our non untouchable pitchers and “someone else”, where I’m assuming you mean one of our 15-30 ranked prospects.

    Realmuto hs 2 arbitration years left and was worth 4.8 WAR this year. He is a Freddie freeman caliber player with 2 years where he will probably get paid like 30-35 million total if I remember my arbitration salary stuff correctly. This puts what the industry calls his surplus value (value as a player minus contract) at like 45 Million, conservatively.

    Here is a bit of a dated look at our prospect valuations https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

    And here is a link to the value of prospects in surplus value https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

    That means the marlins would ask for 2 of our 55 grade pitching prospects, which is basically only soroka and Wright for sure. Maybe tuoki and Ian Anderson have a case for this grade as well, but so far I haven’t seen a 55 slapped on them yet. It would take 3 of our 50 grade pitchers which is the Wilson, fried, Wentz, Gohara plus the debateable Anderson and tuokki. Allard isn’t a 50 anymore, more likely a 40-45. We could also give one of our 55s and 2 50s. But all of these packages still come up a bit short, so we would then need to throw in another “someone else”. We could also try building a package around someone like Pache or Drew Waters, who will probably get some 55 grades after this season. Though I’d prefer to keep these guys if possible.

    Also, if the Marlins are shopping JT half the league is going to be interested, so it’ll take an overpay. If someone offers a 60 grade bat then we probably won’t match the offer. In short, The trade for him would hurt, but our organizational strength is upper level pitching specs so I’m in favor of making a move.

    We have a hitter or 2 with a 60 or better rating in 1 area of hitting, but not overall. Those are really rare at the minor league level.
    We're probably going to make any big trade with a starting pitcher as the center piece. I'm not sure which position players might be thrown in, Riley or Pache ? No doubt the cost will be high on paper, the actual cost won't be known till those guys develop into whatever they become.

    We've got the better end of most deals in recent years.

    They have Dansby as the 4th most valuable player. That makes their rankings suspect to me.

    This is a good point, and its important for people to understand. Fangraphs is a a fine source, their rankings on prospects is pretty solid. I am sure teams have their own rankings, but that reflects decently on industry consensus.

    The thing is...prospects are just such an unknown quantity. Especially pitchers. Even if you are ranked high, that doesn't mean you'll be a good player. Now higher graded position players are usually a safer bet than most, so Dansby is somewhat of a surprise. Not that he is bad; Dansby is still a roughly average major league shortstop, but the rankings were too bullish on him.

    So when someone says something like "We got Austin Riley, he will be the next Chipper" or something like that, it's getting your hopes up too high. When someone says that all our pitching prospects are going to end up being middle of the rotation or better pieces, they are probably over valuing our guys. Prospects usually end up not being super good major league players, that's just how it is.

    They have Soroka at #2 after the injury, if he's healthy he's my #1, but the fact they see value in him meshes with my view.

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  • BigcalidawgBigcalidawg Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    I know Nick doesn’t hit a lot of homers, but you can put him down to hit .285 with 40+ doubles every year. He is a great doubles guy.
    I know Ender is good defensively, but let’s see what Ronnie can do out there. Seems Ender has trade value and we can cover his position.

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  • BigcalidawgBigcalidawg Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @donm said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @BoroDawg said:

    @georgiaboy said:
    Sign the Marlins catcher (JT Realmuto), resign Markakis and shore up the bull pen and watch us go!

    Considering Realmuto isn’t a free agent, don’t think we’ll be signing him... We could trade for him, but it would take multiple top 100 prospects to get him and trading with division rivals rarely happens.

    I count 9 pitchers still in our minor league system with trade value.
    Management could make 4 or 5 untouchable, then give The Marlins their pick any one of the rest, and negotiate another player or 2 to add to the package.

    So I’m pretty studied up on this stuff and also am in favor of trading for Realmuto, so here’s my take on the trade. It’s going to take more than one of our non untouchable pitchers and “someone else”, where I’m assuming you mean one of our 15-30 ranked prospects.

    Realmuto hs 2 arbitration years left and was worth 4.8 WAR this year. He is a Freddie freeman caliber player with 2 years where he will probably get paid like 30-35 million total if I remember my arbitration salary stuff correctly. This puts what the industry calls his surplus value (value as a player minus contract) at like 45 Million, conservatively.

    Here is a bit of a dated look at our prospect valuations https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

    And here is a link to the value of prospects in surplus value https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

    That means the marlins would ask for 2 of our 55 grade pitching prospects, which is basically only soroka and Wright for sure. Maybe tuoki and Ian Anderson have a case for this grade as well, but so far I haven’t seen a 55 slapped on them yet. It would take 3 of our 50 grade pitchers which is the Wilson, fried, Wentz, Gohara plus the debateable Anderson and tuokki. Allard isn’t a 50 anymore, more likely a 40-45. We could also give one of our 55s and 2 50s. But all of these packages still come up a bit short, so we would then need to throw in another “someone else”. We could also try building a package around someone like Pache or Drew Waters, who will probably get some 55 grades after this season. Though I’d prefer to keep these guys if possible.

    Also, if the Marlins are shopping JT half the league is going to be interested, so it’ll take an overpay. If someone offers a 60 grade bat then we probably won’t match the offer. In short, The trade for him would hurt, but our organizational strength is upper level pitching specs so I’m in favor of making a move.

    We have a hitter or 2 with a 60 or better rating in 1 area of hitting, but not overall. Those are really rare at the minor league level.
    We're probably going to make any big trade with a starting pitcher as the center piece. I'm not sure which position players might be thrown in, Riley or Pache ? No doubt the cost will be high on paper, the actual cost won't be known till those guys develop into whatever they become.

    We've got the better end of most deals in recent years.

    They have Dansby as the 4th most valuable player. That makes their rankings suspect to me.

    This is a good point, and its important for people to understand. Fangraphs is a a fine source, their rankings on prospects is pretty solid. I am sure teams have their own rankings, but that reflects decently on industry consensus.

    The thing is...prospects are just such an unknown quantity. Especially pitchers. Even if you are ranked high, that doesn't mean you'll be a good player. Now higher graded position players are usually a safer bet than most, so Dansby is somewhat of a surprise. Not that he is bad; Dansby is still a roughly average major league shortstop, but the rankings were too bullish on him.

    So when someone says something like "We got Austin Riley, he will be the next Chipper" or something like that, it's getting your hopes up too high. When someone says that all our pitching prospects are going to end up being middle of the rotation or better pieces, they are probably over valuing our guys. Prospects usually end up not being super good major league players, that's just how it is.

    This is a very good observation.

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  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Bigcalidawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    I know Nick doesn’t hit a lot of homers, but you can put him down to hit .285 with 40+ doubles every year. He is a great doubles guy.
    I know Ender is good defensively, but let’s see what Ronnie can do out there. Seems Ender has trade value and we can cover his position.

    Pache's defense is off the charts, if he can hit at the MLB level he'll be special.

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  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited October 2018

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

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  • KirbstomperKirbstomper Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

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  • BigcalidawgBigcalidawg Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

    It’s made difficult by the fact that we don’t have outfield studs like we have at every other position.

    I don’t want to see us mortgage the future for a corner outfield spot.

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  • KirbstomperKirbstomper Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited October 2018

    @Bigcalidawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

    It’s made difficult by the fact that we don’t have outfield studs like we have at every other position.

    Which makes it the perfect position for a big upgrade! Well that and catcher (go Realmuto!)

    I don’t want to see us mortgage the future for a corner outfield spot.

    What would you consider mortgaging the future? Trading away 3 of our upper level pitching prospects? Trading 5? Trading all of our top 10 prospects? The point is to try and win your division and win the World Series. To do this the Braves will need to make some significant upgrades.

    I don’t really care if they trade any of our prospects (maybe besides soroka) as long as they get appropriate value for them. I’d bet that if we gave up Kyle Wright and Luis Gohara and Bryce Wilson or something like that for JT Realmuto, people wouldn’t be too upset.

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  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited October 2018

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

    He's really been pretty good all 4 years in Atlanta though. That's why I posted his 4 year averages.

    He's not a superstar, but he adds a lot of value to the lineup. Sometimes WAR gives a good accounting of value but 173 hits, 39 doubles, a .360 on base average and 675 plate appearances on average over his time with The Braves gives a pretty full accounting. If every spot in the lineup gave you those numbers you'd score a lot of runs.

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  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

    It’s made difficult by the fact that we don’t have outfield studs like we have at every other position.

    Which makes it the perfect position for a big upgrade! Well that and catcher (go Realmuto!)

    I don’t want to see us mortgage the future for a corner outfield spot.

    What would you consider mortgaging the future? Trading away 3 of our upper level pitching prospects? Trading 5? Trading all of our top 10 prospects? The point is to try and win your division and win the World Series. To do this the Braves will need to make some significant upgrades.

    I don’t really care if they trade any of our prospects (maybe besides soroka) as long as they get appropriate value for them. I’d bet that if we gave up Kyle Wright and Luis Gohara and Bryce Wilson or something like that for JT Realmuto, people wouldn’t be too upset.

    That would seem a steep price for 2 years service.

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  • BigcalidawgBigcalidawg Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I really like Wilson and Wright.

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  • KirbstomperKirbstomper Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @WCDawg said:

    @Kirbstomper said:

    @Bigcalidawg said:
    I hope we leave the team in tact. Far as I’m concerned, Enciarte and Flaherty are the only guys I wouldpart with. I’m sure the cheap free agents we picked up are back on the block.

    Ronnie and Nick are winning hitters. We can put Ronnie in Center and platoon Austin and somebody else in left. We don’t have much in the minors until Pache, and his hitting may never develop.

    We had a home run stick, but sent him back to the Dodgers. We need somebody who can hit .280 and 20 homers in a platoon role.

    One question I have is “Who would be better in left, Johan, or Austin?”

    But nick had a really bad second half and playoffs, and was really bad the previous 3 years he was here. That first half came out of nowhere and Projections are going to think he will regress.

    Also even in enciartes down year he was better than nick by 0.3 WAR. Ender is just a really gifted outfielder and gets a lot of value there. So lol at saying bring back neck and dump ender.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/braves

    Markakis has averaged 39 doubles, 173 hits and a .360 on base percentage over his 4 seasons in Atlanta. He's also averaged around 675 plate appearances, that is a huge consideration.
    If your lineup can get on base at a good rate, get in scoring position and knock in base runners with a lot of doubles, you'll score a lot of runs.

    I mean he was good last year, as in a top 80 position player in the MLB at 2.6 WAR. And he was not good for like 4 years before this year. And his career year this year was really lifted by an out of his mind first half. Do you buy into that half? Do you buy into the second half, or the previous year? It’s all about who you think he really is.
    Projection systems are going to estimate him to be sub 2 WAR, which is a below average starter. For reference, Dansby was worth 1.9 this year and Suzuki a perfect 2.0.

    It is telling that the team declined to submit a qualifying offer to him, which was 17.6 Million this year. I wouldn’t hate him back on a 1 year stopgap contract, but I’d hope that would be after trying to upgrade the spot via trade and finding some pitching help.

    He's really been pretty good all 4 years in Atlanta though. That's why I posted his 4 year averages.

    He's not a superstar, but he adds a lot of value to the lineup. Sometimes WAR gives a good accounting of value but 173 hits, 39 doubles, a .360 on base average and 675 plate appearances on average over his time with The Braves gives a pretty full accounting. If every spot in the lineup gave you those numbers you'd score a lot of runs.

    Well with a low homer total and below average base running we would probably score close to the league average in runs. Again that’s what WRC+ and wOBA are good for, telling us the amount of runs your at bats give us. Nicks 4 year average WRC+ is probably about 100 which is the league average. That doesn’t make him a bad or good hitter it makes him an average hitter, at least over this 4 year sample size, who gets his value with a good OBP and poor power numbers. Again he was better than average last year.

    A team that scores the league average in runs will win a lot of games with above average pitching and defense.

    As much as I loved nick this year, I guess I’m just one of the guys who doesn’t buy into him repeating it.

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