What Braves should do now...

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:
The early 90s Braves teams didnt have bashers, either. TP and Sid Bream were their lead guys, and we played small ball with Nixon and Sanders. I enjoyed those teams much more than the later days when Cox loaded the lineup and played for the long ball.

Gant and Justice were the middle of the order on those teams. They were big on fielding as well. It was decently lineup, with strong fielding and pitching.

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@PTDawg said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@PTDawg said:

@WCDawg said:

@Kirbstomper said:
They signed Markakis to a 1 year 6M deal just now. I'm on record as not being a big fan of him, I'm really hoping he is more for OF depth than them planning on starting him. The contract would indicate nobody is expecting much out of him this year.

This will prove to be a key move, if he stays relatively healthy of course.
WAR is flawed in it's under valuing OBP. I look in context to a lineup. Fill every spot with high on base percentage hitters with some power, you'll score a lot of runs. I think Nick's average OBP over his 4 seasons with The Braves is around 20th in MLB. Not an average if you just look season per season, it's a bit more subtle. Every year different players occupy spots, but Nick is consistent, which raises his average above most players.

Agreed. WAR and WRC+ are nice in some respects but OBP trumps for me. Not to go all Moneyball on everyone but the most important thing a hitter can do is to not make an out, in most situations that is (love me a nice SAC bunt every now and then).

Call me a homer but I still think the Braves end up with Realmuto. JT has told the Marlins already that he isn't going to resign. AA has been playing the long game with trades and signings. He couldn't have gotten Kakes for just 1 yr @ 4 mill 1-2 months ago. I think there are one or two moves still coming.

Realmuto would be my second best get after Kluber. Then Kimbrel

Can I be greedy and just say bring all 3??

One can dream, but I doubt we are paying that price

Bankwalker · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:

@Bankwalker said:
The early 90s Braves teams didnt have bashers, either. TP and Sid Bream were their lead guys, and we played small ball with Nixon and Sanders. I enjoyed those teams much more than the later days when Cox loaded the lineup and played for the long ball.

Gant and Justice were the middle of the order on those teams. They were big on fielding as well. It was decently lineup, with strong fielding and pitching.

Wow. How do I forget those two? You’re right. That was a pretty balnced lineup of speed and power. Definitely more fun to watch.

Bankwalker · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Bankwalker said:
The early 90s Braves teams didnt have bashers, either. TP and Sid Bream were their lead guys, and we played small ball with Nixon and Sanders. I enjoyed those teams much more than the later days when Cox loaded the lineup and played for the long ball.

Gant and Justice were the middle of the order on those teams. They were big on fielding as well. It was decently lineup, with strong fielding and pitching.

Wow. How do I forget those two? You’re right. That was a pretty balnced lineup of speed and power. Definitely more fun to watch.

Justice only hit 21 hrs in both 91 and 92. Gant hit 32 in 91 but only hit 17 dingers in 92 with 32 stolen bases.

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:

@Bankwalker said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Bankwalker said:
The early 90s Braves teams didnt have bashers, either. TP and Sid Bream were their lead guys, and we played small ball with Nixon and Sanders. I enjoyed those teams much more than the later days when Cox loaded the lineup and played for the long ball.

Gant and Justice were the middle of the order on those teams. They were big on fielding as well. It was decently lineup, with strong fielding and pitching.

Wow. How do I forget those two? You’re right. That was a pretty balnced lineup of speed and power. Definitely more fun to watch.

Justice only hit 21 hrs in both 91 and 92. Gant hit 32 in 91 but only hit 17 dingers in 92 with 32 stolen bases.

Justice was a guy that always felt like he was going to be a superstar but never reached that potential, solid player though. Gant was a dead pull guy that I always liked, originally came up as a 2nd baseman and was sent down to Single A to learn outfield.

Dawgforever · January 2019

It all starts with pitching. You've got to have a good starting rotation and good bullpen. We've got some good young guys but need a couple of proven vets on the hill and build off of that

RDDawg · January 2019

Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

WCDawg · January 2019

@RDDawg said:
Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

Markakis is not a has been, far from it. Break down most any season by any player and you'll see they have ebbs and surges. It's a 162 game season, every game counts, so helping win games in June counts just like winning games in Sep.

In Nick's 4 seasons in Atlanta.

Pre. All Star Game OBP
2018 - .389
2017 - .364
2016 - .328
2015 - .351

Post All Star Game
2018 - .332
2017 - .340
2016 - .370
2015 - .351

What I see is 3 out of 4 years he has been better before the All Star break than after. He has had good OBP every post All Star break though, and importantly, nothing negative has carried over to the next season.

Bankwalker · January 2019

Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@WCDawg said:

@RDDawg said:
Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

Markakis is not a has been, far from it. Break down most any season by any player and you'll see they have ebbs and surges. It's a 162 game season, every game counts, so helping win games in June counts just like winning games in Sep.

This gets missed so often in sports when people talk about being clutch. The games really only matter more in the playoffs.

Bankwalker · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:

@WCDawg said:

@RDDawg said:
Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

Markakis is not a has been, far from it. Break down most any season by any player and you'll see they have ebbs and surges. It's a 162 game season, every game counts, so helping win games in June counts just like winning games in Sep.

This gets missed so often in sports when people talk about being clutch. The games really only matter more in the playoffs.

Correct. The games in which Markakis was a liability counted just as much as when he was benefitting from Albies in April and May. One caveat was that the team needed to be peaking in September. To that effect, Markakis was not a positive.

WCDawg · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:

@WCDawg said:

@RDDawg said:
Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

Markakis is not a has been, far from it. Break down most any season by any player and you'll see they have ebbs and surges. It's a 162 game season, every game counts, so helping win games in June counts just like winning games in Sep.

This gets missed so often in sports when people talk about being clutch. The games really only matter more in the playoffs.

Exactly, a win is a win in the regular season. The total value of contributions in the regular season and producing in the post-season is net value. An exception is a player who has a few huge games where he tacks on unneeded runs, then goes long periods of low production, but that isn't Markakis.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@WCDawg said:

@RDDawg said:
Another year of hoping a has been has one more year left in him. He had a good first half last year and fell off tremendously in the second half of the season. I miss Ted Turner and his money.

Markakis is not a has been, far from it. Break down most any season by any player and you'll see they have ebbs and surges. It's a 162 game season, every game counts, so helping win games in June counts just like winning games in Sep.

This gets missed so often in sports when people talk about being clutch. The games really only matter more in the playoffs.

Correct. The games in which Markakis was a liability counted just as much as when he was benefitting from Albies in April and May. One caveat was that the team needed to be peaking in September. To that effect, Markakis was not a positive.

Albies had a much lower OBP than Markakis.

Markakis 1st half - .389 OBP
Albies 1st half - .318 OBP

Markakis 2nd half - .332 OBP
Albies 2nd half - .282 OBP

Markakis was easily the better hitter all season.

Bankwalker · January 2019

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

TNDawg71 · January 2019

I doubt the team sees a $4 million signing as the solution to RF. They see it as a piece. They have flexibility to make other moves either now or during the season as things pan out and are not saddled with a big salary or a problem in the clubhouse. This move I will guarantee was seen as a positive by everyone on the team.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

I haven't checked every season, but Nick's OBP in 2016 was .328 pre All Star break, .370 post All Star break, so you're off at least 1 season.

Bankwalker · January 2019

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

I haven't checked every season, but Nick's OBP in 2016 was .328 pre All Star break, .370 post All Star break, so you're off at least 1 season.

Comparing his after break lastt season to the entire year the other years of his career. Maybe not true apples to apples but you know...time is an issue.

WCDawg · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:
I doubt the team sees a $4 million signing as the solution to RF. They see it as a piece. They have flexibility to make other moves either now or during the season as things pan out and are not saddled with a big salary or a problem in the clubhouse. This move I will guarantee was seen as a positive by everyone on the team.

Nick is probably the solution in 2019, if he's healthy. There's good reason 2020 is a team option, he's 35 years old and we have young prospects in the out field, 1 or more could be ready in a year.

Camargo might could play some in RF, but he'll be valuable as a utility infielder.
I do hate Camargo won't have an every day position though, he played very well both defensively and as a hitter last season. Then again, he might take Swanson's starting job away from him.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

I haven't checked every season, but Nick's OBP in 2016 was .328 pre All Star break, .370 post All Star break, so you're off at least 1 season.

Comparing his after break lastt season to the entire year the other years of his career. Maybe not true apples to apples but you know...time is an issue.

Time might be an issue by 2020, then again it might not be.
Nick has been very durable over the past 5 years, he has a really solid approach to hitting and he has an extremely solid build. At some point age will become a factor, just when that might be is unknown.

What Braves should do now...

Comments