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If you look at my other posts I differentiate between "Cases" and infections and use the NY study to compile my numbers. I used 1 "Case" = 10 infections so to achieve 200,000,000 infections for herd immunity there will be 20,000,000 "cases" which at 10% = 2 million deaths.
BTW the true number of deaths is much higher than reported but I didn't factor that in!
Good evening, Bank!
I think the post at 8:30 AM that was not fact-based (or, at least was commentary open to debate and could be considered inflammatory by some) was the biggest issue. I don't think the issue was with several of your posts that did contain some statistics.
I have some ultra soft charmin I’ll trade for the Jeep, it’s worth more than that John Wayne stuff
@deutcshland_dawg It won't let me quote.
The total deaths will be 2 million if we rely on herd immunity and 50-60,000 a month until a vaccine is developed. If the vaccine is developed and used within a year we are looking at 6-700,00 deaths. If it takes 2.5-3 years to develop a vaccine or cure then the toll will be 2 million also unless it miraculously disappears beforehand. Going back to prior normal would (SWAG) mean the 2 million would die within 12 months. There would be many indirect deaths on top of that as medical assistance would not be available.
Personal note, I had stage 3 colon cancer in 2018 and my colonoscopy has been delayed due to the virus. Who knows what if any impact delaying that for another 12-18 months would be. Potential indirect death?
@ghostofuga1 I can bring SCENTED Scotts. As much as my (huge) bag will carry.🤣
I saw more of a natural selection stance. Not the endorsing of eugenics, which would be forced to yield a specific result. That's a dishonest take and assigning the worst intent in someone that doesn't agree with you.
It's quite honest since from its inception the eugenics movement took major issue with public health advancement. Its proponents believed it allowed the weak to live unnaturally longer lives making society weaker as a whole. In fact "let natural selection run its course" was the entire point of eugenics. The word literally means good origins or good birth in Greek.
Eugenics is assigned reproduction in order to produce a desired result. It's the interference of man to load the deck of the game. And it's most commonly associated with Nazi Germany and their genocides in order to perpetuate their own race. But making wild accusations seems to be a common trend in our society these days...
A quick google:
Eugenics: the study of how to arrange reproduction within a human population to increase the occurrence of heritable characteristics regarded as desirable. Developed largely by Francis Galton as a method of improving the human race, it fell into disfavor only after the perversion of its doctrines by the Nazis.
"Supporters of eugenics, the powerful early 20th-century movement for improving human heredity, often attacked that era's dramatic improvements in public health and medicine for preserving the lives of people they considered hereditarily unfit. Eugenics and public health also battled over whether heredity played a significant role in infectious diseases."
In their view eugenicists believed letting those susceptible to disease die would increase the occurrence of heritable characteristics they deemed desirable. The characteristic being not dying from infectious disease.
I am uncomfortable with any side of this actually being a thing... and for any of it to take effect, you would have to know who was prone to disease BEFORE they reproduce. That usually doesn't happen.
Yes, it is morally reprehensible and needs to stay in the ash bin of history. It's disturbing that I keep seeing these arguments pop up in more than one place. I know its probably because people are frustrated with the current situation and want things to go back to normal but it doesn't justify "let the weak die" arguments.
Perfect day here in the Upstate of SC. Gonna get to around 80 with tons of sun.
Tough day yesterday as we tried to plan or rearrange what senior recognition will look like, trying to figure out where to plan events, spacing, seating, etc.
Its even more frustrating when you ride by Lowes on the way home and it's PACKED. Not sure how hundreds of people can be in Lowes all up in each other's business, yet we can't do school. Eeeeesh... I want some mulch, but it can wait...
My fam is healthy here, just weary at times. Wife is sad for her 18 yr old, but staying strong. Gonna have dinner here with her parents tonight, spaced out, mainly outside. First time we will have seen them in 8 weeks or so. New norm, it seems.
Great lead article on USA Today about Sweden and what it's doing. Their nursing homes have been rocked, like everywhere else. But they never shut everything down.
Well, it sounds like the "all the bad people go to hell and the good people go to heaven" argument. Sounds good 'till you have to separate bad from good.
Deciding who is "weak" would be just as awful. We will all be weak eventually. Just like we are all bad at times.
Nature is CRUEL. Screw Bambi - one of the worst movies ever made. Animals that die in nature don't lay down and fall asleep. They get eaten alive or they slowly starve to death. Natural selection (an amazingly intelligent design, I will add) is ROUGH, without bias.
There's a reason we are (well, we should act like we are) set apart. It's called LOVE. And that ain't the cupid love, it's the "you ahead of me" love that makes us special, in a specific image. It's the opposite of "let 'em die." It's why all these HEROES across our country are working their tails off to save us all, even if they die in the process.
To leave mankind to the laws of nature is ignoring our calling, giving Love the middle finger. Not I. We are called to lift up the weak - that was the example set before us.
Sweden has actually done worse than we have going strictly off deaths. 231 deaths per million compared to our 174. Their neighbors are much lower in fatalities as well: Finland 36 per mil, Norway 39 per mil, and Denmark 75 per mil.
Edit: the crux of the issue is that good enough to justify the weaker recession they may have compared to the rest of Europe. A difficult question.
Yep, with a few spots (nursing homes, it seems) really skewing their numbers. Yet they haven't overwhelmed a healthcare system with fewer beds per capita.
Their reality is this - as long as there is not a peak, they are trying to find a SUSTAINABLE level of society that can roll forward for months and months. A level to settle in and continue living pre- vaccine.
Is that our goal, or is New Zealand (zero-ish) our realistic goal?