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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Second day out of last 3 that SC reported 2000+ cases.
Death rate still hasn't seen the increase, bouncing around between 10-25 for several weeks.
My friend and his wife are both "better," but tried to do some things around the house today and we're exhausted quickly. They both feel kinda pitiful. That's almost a week with symptoms for the wife.
The Clinic where my daughter works is shut down the rest of the week out of an abundance of caution. An employee who has been self quarantined since last Tuesday (husband tested positive) has tested positive today (both with very mild symptoms). My daughter was on vacation with us last week, so there is no apparent overlap. But it shows how easily stuff can get around.
It s.ucks for sure. But our local hospital has had steady rates still. Hopefully I can say the same in 2-3 weeks.
I'm sure there's some gator joke in there that I can't think of. All I can say is really Florida, how difficult can it be to report positive and negative results? Unbelievable.
Most likely antibody tests based on the labs. These negatives are not included in the testing totals for reporting as they merely see if antibodies are present. If they are the individual has a molecular test to determine if an active case or past case. The lack of antibodies does not necessarily mean that an individual is not infected nor previously infected, it just means there are no antibodies. Where the individual is positive and has a follow-up test and is confirmed that test is not added to the positive number. This is done to avoid the repetitive testing running up the negatives (eg MBA players etc especially in Florida).
It’s an interesting article. If antibody tests, are you surprised by the 9.6% positive result? That would be pretty high, would it not?
Curious why you think antibody. This is a potentially big story that won’t be covered by a lot of news media.
I’ve come to a final conclusion and my mind cannot be changed after this latest news and I don’t mean the testing story linked above.
We might as well open up and get back to having as much fun as possible. I just found out tonight we only have 9 years left to save the planet, and NOBODY can seriously think we’ll pull that off, right?
We’re DOOMED! Open up the bars, please!!!
Praying we can yeehaw our way into a miracle here.
I'm in my late 30s, and I've know 5 people in my age range (31 to 41) who've tested positive. 3 of them were mild- one was almost completely asymptomatic (loss of taste/smell), and the others had mild flu symptoms.. got over it easily. The other two didn't fare so well. Both were hospitalized- one for a few days, one for 6 days. The one who was hospitalized for 6 days was the oldest (at 41) but in the best shape-- has literally been featured in fitness magazines. The one hospitalized for a few days was the youngest (31ish) but a little overweight. That's the crazy thing about this virus... there are certain people who defy criteria who are hit hard by the cytokine storms. The two hospitalized friends are still not back to full speed, and the 41yr old was infected in March!
For me, I'm doing what I've been doing all along. Wearing a mask in stores. Not wearing a mask when I'm outside. Limiting myself to only being around certain friends/family members who have been following the same measures. Staying away from my elderly parents who have high risk conditions unless I've had a test AND have been isolating for enough time to feel confident enough that I'm okay to see them. I haven't gotten a haircut or dined inside, but I have had dinner a couple of times on a patio that was appropriately distanced. Some people are going to do everything right and still catch it (the 31yr old hospitalized friend was this way). I think the key is to mitigate risks as much as possible, show respect for fellow citizens by wearing masks, keep 6 ft distance as much as possible in stores, washing hands, and being SUPER careful around vulnerable populations. Don't exposure yourself or others unnecessarily. Avoid big get togethers, workout at home. Know this too shall pass, and the more we try to be conscientious of each other and the situation, the more likely things will return to normal sooner rather than later.
With regard to the 9.6% Florida has tested 12.5% of the population with a positive rate of 10.9%. Studies have shown that the problem with antibody tests is that it can give false positives. One estimated up to 50% but I don;t believe that. The actual could be say 7.5% positive which would indicate that 1.6 million Floridians have or had the the virus. That is 5.5 times the cases reported which is lower than the CDC case to infection multiplier. That is what you expect when positive rates have been running close to 20% this month (missing a lot of cases due to inadequate testing).
See this article we are talking about the minnows in the shark tank
Maybe the article you linked didn’t give complete information. It stated the large testing companies were 11-13% pos, but did not state a timeline. Weren’t the early test rates thru the roof?
This will clear itself up in a few days.
So far this month SC deaths are 37 below what my model predicts. Wednesday seems to be the peak day in SC. Some states only report LTC deaths once a week so maybe it's Wednesday in SC? Anyway I don't see an uptick in July until Friday when the rest of the month shows average of 40 per day. the recent surge won't reflect in deaths until early August.
10 states and US update for the first 2 weeks of July on testing and Cases
CPD - Cases Per Day; TPD - Tests Per Day.
Those in orange are based on average for June 18-30 as I didn't have detailed test data for those states before June 17th. The Cases were changed to cover the same date range to compare apples with apples.
Taking Arizona as an example, The tests per day in the latter part of June averaged 12,782. This has increased in July to just 13,542 a 6% increase. However the cases per day increased by 19% (3,491 v 2,945) due to a 12% increase in positive rate. Thus suggests that the virus is spreading rapidly.
For NC testing has increased 32% but cases only increased 25%. The 6% decline in positive rates are to be expected as testing is widened to cover those with less severe (or many) symptoms.. The spread here is stable.
Mississippi - can't rely on consistent testing reporting numbers so don't read anything into their data.
States of most concern are the top 5 plus Alabama all showing major increases in positive rates. Arizona also an issue, their positive rate for July so far is 26% which is pretty close to the ceiling. Either their testing is majorly inadequate or a quarter of the population has been infected in the last 2 weeks! I hope and believe it's the former.
@YaleDawg With due respect, I don't think ice cream and robberies make a great analogy. Vitamin D has been shown to reduce respiratory tract infections dramatically. You can read about it in the BMJ. Not only that, but it is believed to affect the immune system. So, we know we are already in a promising ballpark at the outset. Also, there is a very strong cold and flu-like illness season that hits both hemispheres in the dead of winter. I'm quite surprised a clever fellow like you would bring up Manaus in discussing my comments about C&F season because you should know that season doesn't follow summer/winter patterns near the equator. Brazil isn't a good example. You need to look at higher latitudes like Argentina, Chile, and S. Africa. All three show an inverse pattern to the US, UK, France, Spain, etc. This would suggest the possibility of vitamin D being a key modulator.
The two studies I mentioned, which are being reviewed, are fascinating imo. Maybe they have already been dismissed, perhaps because they are from the Philippines and Indonesia? The two studies, despite being in different countries, agree remarkably in seeing a very strong inverse correlation between vitamin D levels and CV 19 severity. The Philippine study looked at over 200 people suffering from CV-19. They checked their D levels and followed them for disease outcome. They put the sick people in "buckets" ranging from mild disease symptoms to severe/critical. Of the people who had mild disease, 95.9% had adequate D levels (30 ng/ml) or higher. Of the people who had a bad disease outcome, 3.8% had adequate D levels. The other ~96% were either insufficient or deficient. That is pretty shocking data. I'll be the first to admit these two studies don't prove cause, but they certainly are both very suggestive. It is possible that it's an insignificant coincidence. Here is the graph from the Indonesian study again. You can see that among the cohort of the 780 people they studied, not one person lived who had a vitamin D level below 19, and not one person died who had a level above 34 (ng/ml). The almost linear drop in the death rate with increasing D levels is, again, almost shocking imho.
@dirtypants I'm not sure you were commenting on my message or just quoting it to make a post, but I'm a risk/reward kind of guy. There probably isn't a huge benefit in wearing a mask, but what is the risk? Anything that helps, even a little bit, is probably worth it if it doesn't risk/cost much. I've been wearing a mask for months when I'm out.
The next question is who funds these private labs? Seems to me they are trying to play dumb about not knowing they weren’t following protocol, which is pretty hard to believe. Follow the money.
Yale, one more thought related to my post above. A lot of folks aren't familiar with D levels. There is even disagreement in the medical world as to adequacy. There are a lot of doctors and scientists, who are vitamin D experts, who advocate much higher levels (say 40-80 ng/ml). But, many doctors are happy with the Endocrine Society's recommendations (below 20 - deficient; 21-29 - insufficient; 30 or above - adequate; all ng/ml). Older doctors might be happy at an even lower level. A lot of the research driving the changes is relatively new.
A great deal of research has been done on D levels in the population. I read one study I found interesting. They went to Africa and tested an entire tribe of traditional hunters to find out what their D level was--they were trying to establish what level was "natural" based on no supplementation and a traditional outdoor lifestyle. I'm going from memory, but I believe the average D level was 44 ng/ml. They have also tested lifeguards and found even higher levels, I believe into the 60s. The point being that a high level might be a lot more traditional than a lot of people realize.
The groups that are at high risk (obese, shut-ins/nursing home residents, older people, people with dark skin) have all been independently studied and identified as having very low vitamin D levels. I would note that African Americans have been studied extensively and their D levels in America and Europe tend to be very, very low. It could all be insignificant, as you posited, but I would argue that it needs to be studied intensely. BTW, I looked through the ongoing clinical trials on D and Covid 19 and of the 17 studies I looked at I didn't like the structure of even one of them. I'm amazed we can't do better. I wouldn't recommend the DIY approach outside of getting a nice tan without getting burned, but I would definitely discuss it with a knowledgeable doctor. If your doc won't discuss it, find a new doc. This is particularly important for people in the high risk groups I mentioned.
A worthy topic to post, thank you, because I can relate. I found out this week a co-worker of mine who had been furloughed passed away last month. Our company was very vague at the cause only to say “unexpected”. From Personally knowing this guy for years, he was an alcoholic at best and often depressed, even before all this COVID stuff. Unfortunately, I’ve had enough friends die from self inflicted deaths to recognize the language used. Same vague language in the obituary I was able to find. I Haven’t confirmed cause of death yet and probably won’t be able to, but it is absolutely tragic to think that had he kept his job he might still have his life. He was 36, married, no kids.