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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
@Denmen185 Where are you sourcing your data for Florida? Here?
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
The numbers you are posting do NOT match what the Florida Dept of Health is putting out. Also, I do not see in the dashboard where the number of “first time positives” is given, just the percentage, which is always lower than the total positive percentage they give(2-3% lower).
For instance, yesterday 7/17, Florida reported a 15.29% positive test rate, but when revised to only include first time positives the rate then drops to 12.1%.
The dashboard also makes it very clear that the same person testing positive on 3 different days does get counted as a positive test on all 3 days. It clarifies that if a person tests positive twice on the same day that only one positive is counted.
I’ve only gone back a few days to check against the numbers you post but it is clear a significant discrepancy exists between your numbers and what the FDOH is putting out.
I use the first one to get the early numbers then get other states from JHU and CNN which agree with each other and as far as Florida is concerned with the FL dashboard. The difference in their % may be that they include negative antibody body results that is contrary to CDC guidelines and all states were told to remove them mid-late May.
My wife is Swedish, her family is still there, and we have spent 10 summers or so there. My kids also have dual Swedish citizenship. They basically all have summer houses, but they are like tiny little homes on a lake or in the archipelago. The country shuts down to a large extent. Many shops in Stockholm are closed in July and August. No data though just anecdotal.
Btw, a recent thesis is that the body’s immunity against covid potentially may not be maintained for longer periods of time. This would kill the concept of herd immunity.
This article is interesting talking about H1N1 response. It is easy to say in hindsight not as many died but if it is true that in July 2009 States were told not to post cases because everyone knows it is an epidemic, then it could be more. How did they know not to shut down the country?
https://www.nature.com/articles/463150a
I see what's happening. On the FLDOH link you sent the number of tests is way higher than those reported to JHU and CDC (or new company). The PCR test has 2 parts and are shown on that site as
+,+ = 1 positive
+,- = 1 positive
-,- = 2 negatives.
The numbers going to the ones I use, including their own dashboard, are People tested not number of tests. Thus all PCR negatives are double counted on the linked page and reduce the pos%.
In fact if you look at top left under the red the positives are the same as cases (337569) and the tests they report is the positive + negative (337569+2594419 = 2931987). These are identical to the numbers on my spreadsheet.
Daily today not all in yet are today cumulative - yesterday's equivalent.
Here’s what I googled. Pretty accurate article. My “pretty much everybody” is 20% according to the numbers. Keep in mind you could have several generation hanging out together.
I KNEW IT.
I suggest everyone read the document I linked. The data you are providing on Florida is misleading and not representative of the situation.
Florida DOH does report the same person as a new case every single day they test positive. Why?
Florida DOH AND all media report that number of “new cases” and the very misleading positive rate to the World.
Florida DOH does give out the actual percentage of new positive cases for tests performed on people who have never tested positive, but Florida does NOT provide how many of the total tests were on such people, nor how many of those first time positives there were. What’s up with that?
Why give all of the other numbers and not the ones that really matter?
So they performed 90,000 tests yesterday? What if half or more were on people being retested to see if they are clear?
Are hospitalization numbers skewed the same way? The average stay in a hospital had previously been reported as 11-14 days, but is now much shorter with the younger age group. I’ve seen 2-3 days, but even at 14 days, and 400 people a day, I just don’t see how you have 9000 people in the hospital “because” of covid. The math doesn’t work.
On the flip side, there have also been theories ,supported by blood tests, that a huge percentage of the population has a built in immune response from being exposed to other coronaviruses, perhaps even many years ago.
I’m not falling for that “no immunity” garbage. The human body doesn’t work like that. This virus is very similar in structure to other coronaviruses. The very first lie we were told was that this was something new for which nobody would have any immune response. Remember that? Bogus. The people who can’t now see this as deliberate deception are lying to themselves.
Worse days may be ahead but it won’t be because of this virus.
Thx for the info, Pedro. I'm not sure 20% does the trick on those charts, but it is an interesting possibility. Also, the most shocking part of those charts is the big spike in cases in May through late June yet it didn't seem to affect the slope of decreasing deaths at all. I have my own theories on that, but it is impressive. I'm still inclined to go with that guy's theory in the article on the HIT being lower than thought. That would put the virus burnout much sooner, particularly if there a lot of people who already have some immunity.
We still don't know much on immunity, but I'm not aware of anybody getting symptoms a second time. I think they had some positive tests after negative tests, but I think they were mostly asymptomatic. That's going from memory, so I could be wrong. Also, don't forget that we get flu shots every year, so that is a possibility with a vaccine.
I see that. Numbers I am seeing are also the same. What I linked also said it only counts number of people, not multiple tests of the same person on the same day.
The problem is that it counts the same person as another new case on a different day and doesn’t provide information on how many people tested were being tested for the first time, versus how many people being tested were being tested for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc time and are still showing positive. But they still publish those 2nd, 3rd, 4th positive results as a “new positive” even though that’s not the case.
Where are the totals for these tests? Total tests and positives? Why just a percentage of an unknown number?
I have stated before my wife's hospital reports 3 new cases if the same person test positive 3 times