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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0



  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The explanation for this makes it even worse. Complete lie, imo.

    Yeah That’s not how it works at my doctor’s office. I almost get tired of confirming my identify to every person who speaks to me.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The four I focus on are Florida, Georgia, Texas and to a lesser extent California as 3 months months ago I felt that they would be a problem. The last post covering Texas was back July 17th I think.

    Texas - their 7 day average doubled by June 18th. Positivity rate May 5,6%, June 10.7%. Deaths were in the mid 20s most of the month but ticked up a tad in the last 10 days of June but still in the 20s. The 7 day average hit 50 on the 8th of July and are now at 95. The lag there seems to be around 20 days.

    This relates to Texas and I haven't checked where they stand. Will try to do so by the morning. The difficulty with Deaths is that even if Infection to death is say 35 days, the case to death will vary a lot. If you look at a state where testing is both readily available (NY today) and results timely you might see Day 4 symptoms, Day 5/6 take a test, Day 7 results. For the worst cases Day 11-20 hospital followed by death day 35. The case -> death is 28 days. If that same exact case is in a state with a high infection rate (Sunbelt hot-spots today) and hence backlog of testing it may be Day 4 symptoms, Day 7-10 take a test, Day 12 -20 get results although possibility of hospital before getting results so urgent test with death still Day 35. In this instance Cases -> death would be 15-23 days. The key to estimating the lag is the testing performance at the time of symptoms not today.

  • UGA_2019UGA_2019 Posts: 157 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Did you really just post breitbart as a source? Do you actually expect people to take you seriously when you do something like that?

  • BumBum Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Did you really just make another post like this? Do you actually expect people to take you seriously when you do something like that?

  • UGA_2019UGA_2019 Posts: 157 ✭✭✭ Junior

    I don’t know what other post you’re referring to, but breitbart is not a trustworthy news source. Hate to burst your bubble.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate


    I looked at the tests and cases trend for the last 2 weeks.

    There were wild swings in Positivity Rate (9.1% to 26.9%) which makes it difficult to see any trend. It appears that the testing system there is under such stress that one of three things are happening.

    1. The testing in hotspots is so sporadic that on the days that they have no tests the average is distorted as a greater percentage of the results are from less severe areas.
    2. The reporting from LTC facilities and/or rural less impacted areas are not being reported daily but released 1-3 times per week.
    3. Because of system stress the reporting from hotspots is disconnected where one or more are releasing positive and negative results from one days testing on different days. This appears most likely when looking at July 19 you see the highest number of tests for the 2 week period but also the lowest number of positive results (Cases). It appears that a dump of negative results occurred over July 18/19 that should have been released July 15/16 where the rate was high (15th had lowest number of tests of the period).

    Without reliable testing numbers predicting fatalities is a crap shoot.

    Having said that the deaths are steadily rising with the 7 day average now at 133 (169 yesterday). The cases end June/early July were averaging around 6k per day and the 7 day has plateaued at just over 10k. This indicates that deaths could rise to 250/day by mid August. This could be higher if cases are being majorly constrained by lack of testing.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Any reliable info that labs are breaking up their daily testing totals (neg/pos) and releasing at different times? “Negative Results Dumps” are the reason your numbers are off? Is this a theory, or from a source? What part of your formula for calculating deaths includes the pos% test rate?

    Multiple negatives from the same person doesn’t make sense, but if that’s how the epidemiologists calculated the benchmark , then it isn’t overstating to include them.

    It is also tough to predict deaths when you lump everyone under 55 in to one group. Nearly 50% of the states population is under 35 years old but only represents less than 1% of the total loss of life, at 51 people. They are 1/3 of the positive cases.


    Population by age range

    • 11% 0-9.
    • 12% 10-19.
    • 13% 20-29.
    • 13% 30-39.
    • 12% 40-49.
    • 13% 50-59.
    • 13% 60-69.
    • 9% 70-79.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 470 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    On line with my son and his wife being handed the swab and told to swab themselves

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    In the State of Florida, the suicide rate for people under 35 was 9/100k, 815 during 2019.

    The covid death rate for the same age group is 0.5 /100k. A total of 51 vs 815.

    There are 5.3 million Floridians between the ages of 36-55. Last year, 1059 committed suicide. So far, Covid has taken 344 people in the same age group.

    It will be interesting to see if our government’s cavalier attitude toward their well-being during this time will result in an increase.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The MTD data thru yesterday is shown below together with the same detail for where we stood 1 week ago

    Overall US the cases per day have increased from 57,524 a week ago to 60,653 yesterday. This is mainly a result of testing increasing from 688k to 719k daily with only a minor uptick in positivity rate.

    States that don't follow this trend:

    Texas - although cases per day have increased shows a reduction in positivity rate from 55% above June to 51%. Minor but promising.

    Arizona - Cases has fallen by 230 per day but this is almost all due to testing falling back to June levels.

    Alabama - Most significant increase in CPD due to a spike in positivity rate The increase from 1,401 to 1,535 means that last week was of the order of 1,800 cases per day. The only saving grace is that the population is not of the same order as Cal, TX, FL

    SC - Increased cases appear to be in line with increased testing with pos rate falling last week.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    I wouldn’t waste your time with he/she/it. Check out the comment history. Pretty angry person.

    It really is a sign of the times that a professional would suggest the person may have thought they were testing someone (hypothetically) named Jay but it was really someone named Rebecca. I guess the transgender legal issues have the testers scared to ask.

    Zero training and the people they’ve hired just don’t care. I had to give my name and DOB to 3 different people when I was tested, including the person doing the test. Apathy is the only way to mess it up like this.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Yay SC... (Trying to celebrate small victories...). We aren't the worst! (Many times we are...)

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    SC cases are still too high, but have leveled off at somewhere around "s.ucks.". I was worried we were headed for "really, really s.ucks" and we have seemed to slow the process and prevent getting there right now. Would love to see it start to head the other way soon.

    Happy to see more and more masks everywhere.

    On a different note, I found a great article from Burgermeister Meisterburger on nature vs. nurture and going back to school. I will link it if I find it again..

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,210 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    A little bit of encouraging news from FL: despite dramatic growth in cases over the last few weeks, net hospitalizations actually went down a little today. Total CV hospitalizations are steady at about 15% of total state hospital beds. ICU beds are tighter. But, considering the huge case load, hospitalizations aren't exploding out of control yet.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Deaths in Texas have started to increase exponentially it seems.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Which day? Haven't seen today's numbers posted. If you are referring to yesterday's dashboard beware. The Tuesday numbers in Florida are generally higher as it includes a catch-up from the weekend which are reported Sunday and Monday. Last 7 days were

    In order columns are day and 7 day ave.

    You can see the reduction Sunday (Saturday) and Monday (Sunday) and the jump Tuesday (Monday plus catch up as office staff return to work.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,210 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Total case loads in TX and FL could have peaked, but it is too early to say for sure. CA is still growing, unfortunately. It will be interesting to see how the case loads react to the varied policies. If Sweden is a valid template for what happens regardless of policy, we could soon see lower case loads in TX and FL.

This discussion has been closed.