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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
I have a buddy who works in Healthcare. He took an offer to help with the COVID crisis in NYC mack in March. Recently, he moved on to Arizona to help with their current crisis. He says the scene is night and day in AZ vs NYC. There are a lot of patients in AZ but nowhere near the severity of NYC. The ICU unit in NYC was constantly hectic with people going critical or dying. The ICU in AZ is busy but much less dramatic as patients are much more stable throughout their illness.
I found this news encouraging. Certainly it is more meaningful to me since it is from a trusted source. However, it fells more in line with the numbers we are seeing. Deaths are going up, but not at the alarming rate we feared. I'm inclined to believe the lag is not coming. The virus just isn't as bad right now for whatever reason.
Also....the article clearly says that they are attempting to go "back" and remove those cases where covid wasn't the contributing cause of death.....
Have they posted a chart yet showing how many death certificates have been changed so far?
@Bankwalker is armed with better data than I am.....I'm simply not very smart ... but he and I, as well as many others.....have been very consistent in our arguments. ....
We do not believe you and denmen are being dishonest
We agree that covid is highly contagious
We agree that many can get very ill .... and that there have been .....and will continue to be... some healthy people die from covid.
I don't believe either of us.... or many others on here have down played the seriousness of this disease....
We have simply questioned "some" of the data being presented......especially number of deaths contributed to covid.
I think every American under the age of 70 needs to know how deadly this disease really is without including hospice patients, auto accident patients, cancer patients, heart disease patients......just because they tested positive for the disease.
I understand and appreciate that you are coming at this from a different perspective (and I'm not suggesting political at all). You are coming from a scientific perspective that looks at a lot of different reasons to be concerned about this disease.
But I have a hard time believing.....as intelligent as you obviously are.....that you don't see a disturbing inconsistency with the way covid deaths are determined......and there was nothing in the article you posted that should give anyone confidence that covid deaths aren't inappropriately determined.
Americans need to know the truth about the actual death rate. And we simply aren't getting that truth.
@Bankwalker provide evidence this is happening on a large scale. I have yet to see any.
What she is saying is absolutely consistent with what I have posted on this thread. Two numbers are important. Those who died with and those that died of COVID-19. She works at the Illinois state department and in the first video was describing what gets reported to them. The second source was her saying what actually ends up in the official counts.
I'll ask you again......how deadly do you believe this virus is to healthy people under the age of 70?
HIPAA laws really hinder (and I hate to use the term "hinder' because they are designed to protect our privacy) us from seeing a clearer picture of what is going on, and I truly think there needs to be more transparency.
If we had more DETAILS about these deaths, we would understand more. DHEC in SC only separates out middle-aged adults (35-65) and elderly adults (66+) when reporting deaths (also young adults and children, but thankfully they are very few and far between). The vast majority of our fatalities are in the second group, and the vast majority of those deaths are in the higher ranges of that group, and the vast number of those deaths are associated with assisted living and nursing home facilities.
There are no details on anything else. No preexisting conditions connected to the ages. No demographic information. No socio-economic information. No gender information. No blood-type information.
And those categories are REALLY, REALLY broad. There are plenty of 60 year-olds who are older than some 75 year-olds I know. And that "old" 60 year old is in the same category as my wife and I at 45.
A 1.5% or a 2% fatality rate DOES NOT APPLY across the board. For many, many groups, that rate is VERY, VERY low. Like orders of magnitude lower. And that scary stat is being used - in some instances - to dictate policy and, dare I say, scare some into irrational decisions.
So, we are not shown THOSE LOW RATES. I would think the more detailed numbers would go a long way to EDUCATE the general public, and REASSURE them that they - and their children - are not being stalked in the dark. I would think the more detailed numbers would go a long way in keeping talking heads from SHAMING AND SCARING (sorry, I introduced words of bias and opinion here) policy and decision makers from denying young kids their opportunity to be educated and compete.
We should be doing both things right now - and by we, I mean the responsible leaders of society, represented and served by an unbiased media - emphasizing the need for mitigating measures (masks, washing hands, backing up off each other WHERE POSSIBLE) and providing some type of transparency into how "safe" a large majority of our population is.
California just announced that they are going to a 4 tier priority on testing.
From (poor) memory
Those in tier 4 will not get results until turnaround time for 1-3 is less than 48 hours (so may get the test but not likely to get results anytime soon)
This will cause their positivity rate to increase as they will be now testing the group(s) most likely to test positive. It will also cause their CFR to increase in about 3-4 weeks as the cases will contain less positives with mild or no symptoms.
BTW... My friend and his wife...
Have basically recovered. Just a review - he is a 48 year old educator, and his wife is 48 and works in a doctor's office. She was symptomatic for almost 2 weeks - loss of smell and taste, aches, fever, MAJOR fatigue (was in the bed for about 3 days). He had a cough and fatigue for about 3-4 days with an asterisk I will talk about. In a non-Covid world, she would have missed a week of work, and he says he would have pushed through and probably kept working (amazing how much that attitude will change moving forward!).
Interesting detail - he is allergic to bees (not epi-pen allergic, but usually some adverse reactions) and got stung doing yard work towards the end of his symptoms. He said his reaction was 10X worse this time than he ever remembers. He had a bad 24 hours almost after the sting - the worst stretch by far of his infection.
He is VERY excited to be through it now with the school year coming up (let's hope the immunity lasts for most of the year).
I think hindsight will show quite deadly, but not from infection. From mental health issues stemming from mass layoffs, failing businesses, which I predict will far outweigh the impact of healthy folks getting COVID. Like my colleague who died last month. All I can find out is “it wasn’t good” but I know without knowing what happened. Heck...I even had to get counseling in April to help cope with the fall out. I’ve never come anywhere close to needing counseling in the past.
We need studies of COVID impact on mental health.
Read the line above the second set. It clearly states Positive for the first time as a percentage of all the people tested that day. That means it includes those who are repeat negatives.
NY is going to phase 4 reopening tomorrow. This allows most businesses to reopen but still does not allow Bars or indoor dining. It has a mask mandate so is basically akin to what I think is the path forward. I will be watching to see if they fare better than the other states/countries that have reopened.
LOL. Now I’m going to ask you to read the same thing again, and this time please take note of the comma at the end, which is then followed by the words “EXCLUDING PEOPLE WHO HAVE PREVIOUSLY TESTED POSITIVE.”
So if you’re retesting because you previously tested positive, then all of your future tests are excluded Including the negatives
@Denmen185 I believe NY will fare better. The virus may have already burned out there. R-factors never took “susceptibility” under consideration. This is not truly a novel virus. That’s why it is primarily killing the people that are already in the high risk class to be one of the 1.5 million who die every single year of heart disease, cancer, copd, ****, and diabetes.
We’ve never tried to spend $2 trillion to stop those things, and those numbers repeat every single year.
If I’m wrong and it does spread again then New Yorkers should burn the governor’s mansion if they try to shutdown again, as it will be obvious their efforts are futile.
Last of the last 🤣
At a LTC facility the 10 employees are tested every 3 days. One tests positive. The total tests for the month is 100. My method (per CDC) says that for August the infection rate was 10% (1 in 10), Yours (per DOH ) would say 1% (1/100) positivity. I will always use my method but if you prefer the DOH method then just ignore mine. Just don't say that 100 residents of the state have been tested and one was positive.
So if we test the same person 22 million times tomorrow we can confidently say that we tested the entire population of Florida and got zero positives! Not attacking you but showing the FLDOH testing data is misleading
Thank you for FINALLY agreeing with me.
But we should continue trusting your numbers even though you get them from FDOH.
Jack Nicholas and his wife, both 80 years old, tested + and had basically nil side effects months ago.
WAY more widespread than people think. This thing is gonna burn out, and the CDC knows it. They just want a way to claim a “policy victory” with these bogus preventative measures