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silver lining, is new case number is dropping (albeit only 3 days so far)
No silver linings allowed. We must stay somber lest we be deemed irrational.
I fear you are right :(
I know it's difficult to imagine a return to normalcy given these daily death totals but I learned two things today that will likely make us need to make some very difficult decisions in the coming weeks and months. They are:
In short - ahead of Q4'21, our best hope is that one of the various antivirals in clinical trials currently prove effective to keep as many patients from progressing to the severe/critical stage.
All that to say: if a vaccine isn't available until Q4'21, are you prepared to shelter in-place for the next year and a half? Or are we best served isolating the most vulnerable to the best of our ability and ripping off the band-aid so to speak (?).
not sure that will work. I think we need to slowly re-open america starting May 1 and monitor the situation closely. it's just not financially feasible to keep going like this for too much longer. people are just going to need their hair cut.
in all seriousness, if things are plateauing or flattening for the remainder of April, we are just going to have to get out of the house and back to work and dam the torpedoes so to speak.
This will certainly spark some discussion...
I think you're spot on. We can't focus solely on the Covid-19 problem. The world has millions of other problems, some of which are adversely affected by the very things that are supposedly required for combating the virus. Some of which are potentially just as hazardous as the virus. Gone are the models predicting millions of American deaths. We need to adjust our reactions to the virus as better information comes out.
Also I think as the weather warms up, our immune systems might improve. I know warm weather doesn’t burn off covid, but it could help just in general.
I would try to keep large crowds to a minimum in restaurants and bars and see what happens. Of course, I don’t know much and no one is going to take my advice anyway
Not surprising. Only positive tests were used in the previous totals which will always lead to an undercount. On a typical day NYC has between 10-20 deaths in home. During the Covid spike it was over 200. None of those were being counted.
Interesting visual view of this data from the NYT article - the article states that nearly 60% of probables were hospitalized which is what surprised me. I would understand why the probable death curve was flatter if they were all deaths outside of hospitals, but I'm honestly surprised as to how many of these patients who passed away in the last few weeks - when I would expect any patient admitted to the hospital who exhibited COVID-19 symptoms would have been tested positive or negative - weren't classified as COVID-19 deaths previously.
In any case - it is promising to see the daily rates of confirmed COVID deaths continue to decrease for now.
I agree - FWIW my daughter's continuing with her remote UGA learning and she said the consensus of her Biology class after studying various models this past week is that it will be difficult to accept the loss of life but the best outcome for the general population in this country is to "rip off the bandaid" and let natural selection take it's course.
Note to self: update Living Will to transfer plug-pulling rights to her sister... /s
We probably won't know exactly what happened until everything calms down. I'd say it was likely from people who weren't in the hospital long enough to get tested
Just found out my wife's grandmother tested positive. She's 93 and has been in a nursing home for a few years now. She rarely gets sick and the symptoms are minor so far. However, she has grown very weak and lost a lot of weight over the last year. I'm not liking her odds, but she is determined to outlive her mother who made it to 102. Prayers 🙏
So sorry to hear that. Praying for your family.
As i posted last week, im very frustrated that we have to choose between two bad options when some other nations dont, but it is what it is now and given our delay in responding to covid19, now we need to let Americans die or let our country's economy and our way of life die. Im angrily in support of ripping the bandaid off after we've spent all this time out here effectively dealing with it in California for naught.
Thank you, Tex.
I agree 100%.
Developing a vaccine is lengthy but even then producing and vaccinating 320 million could take months if not years by which time the first inoculated would need doing again. Opening "smart" is the only option.
The key is to establish new rules of behavior for each segment of the economy before re-opening that segment. For instance, restaurant capacities have to be reduced, bar seating eliminated, employees tested regularly and wear PPE, disposable menus etc. to minimize the risk of spread.
Strongly suggests that there is a major shortage of tests. We should be doing 500k a day, testing medical personnel weekly and certainly testing all hospital admissions and any deaths outside of hospitals (give kits to coroners).
I dislike the idea of another layer of rules. Educate and encourage but let people be free to make their own decisions. Blanket rules impede those who are already responsible from adapting and innovating while the irresponsible ignore the rules anyway. Simple rules assume every situation and every location is the same and they are not. Complex rules are unenforceable. Sometimes you have to trust in humanity to do the right thing without reigning with an iron fist.
Anyone know how @Bankwalker is doing? Haven't seen anything from him in a couple weeks now.
@YaleDawg ......asking you this question because you seem to be up on this Covid 19 stuff more than most. Especially those on Dawgnation.
Please understand that these questions are sincere and in no way meant to start an argument. I haven't agreed with everything you have said regarding this pandemic......but I absolutely respect your points of view on this subject and readily admit that I just have opinions on something that I'm not qualified to have opinions on.
And I'm also sensitive to the fact that you are living in ground zero of this pandemic and I am not.
So hopefully you take these questions in the spirit I intended.
1. If America pulled the band aid off on May 1st....regardless of where each state stands in regards to the curve......how many lives could be lost?
2. Is there a number that shows how many lives would be lost if the country was reopened vs....how many lives are destroyed by a crumbling economy?
And I'm aware of the fact that many lives will be lost simply because we don't have enough hospital beds or equipment if things are opened up.
3. I am not a cold hearted person...on the contrary..... I think every life is precious.....even the unborn. I understand that many families have been devastated by this virus and in no way mean to minimize that pain....but are the ramifications of this shutdown really worth it?
How long are the food bank lines in 2 weeks? What is the homeless population in two weeks? What is the suicide rate in two weeks? Domestic violence rate in two weeks?
4. As many are losing their jobs......the national media and the medical profession are still employed. That can't last much longer......without advertising dollars media can't continue to stay employed......and with millions out of work......their eventually won't be enough money for all the medical personnel. When those two professions start losing jobs....will the urgency to get back to normal speed up?
5. Final question.......if things were opened up May 1st......everywhere......and everyone was required to wear a mask......how much would that help contain the virus.
It may seem that I am totally against the shut down measures.....but it's not the case.....just wondering if it's worth it.
@YaleDawg I sincerely pray that you, your family and your closet friends are getting through this OK. It has to be very difficult living in the New York area right now.
God bless my friend.