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COVID-19 Check-in
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Most "experts" say that the number of cases at 600k likely means that around 3 million have/had the disease. Without the restrictions (or a vaccine) they also say that infections won't slow until 50% of the population become infected and "Herd immunity" kicks in. That means 160 million will contract Covid-19 of which 32 million would be considered cases under today's criteria. The mortality rate of cases appears about 8% which would mean approx 2.6 million would die before it continued at a manageable level. This does not include indirect deaths that would grow due to inadequate treatment of other medical issues.
Testing is the key to validating everyone's assumptions and it should be noted that per Politico report testing has actually dropped 30% over the past 7 days. The DPA needs to be fully utilized to increase production of testing materials ASAP.
Upstate of SC is still pretty quiet, in comparison. Like a lot of other areas, our "peak" of deaths is not supposed to hit until the end of the month (meaning, I guess, that we are at our peak of transmission right around today, maybe?).
Spoke with a buddy who is an EMT, and he said they have been really, really slow the past several weeks. Accidents way down and no one wants to call an ambulance and go to the hospital. And our hospital system is actually hurting financially right now - their capacity is too low with everything temporary postponed, waiting for a possible surge.
No sure if this is the exception or the norm outside of the metro areas.
Our state seems to be losing 5-15 people a day to this thing, almost all fitting the same profile.
News channels still sound like recess for 6th graders... Gracious, people - what grown people act like this?
Starting in May, people will get out more, stuff will start happening again, and "clusters" of this thing will break out. I don't see any way of avoiding that for 12-18 months. It's gonna **** for a while, but there is zero chance today's status quo continues.
If you rely on mass transit to get to work, you're gonna get this.
Praying for everyone here when you mention requests, even if I don't reply - know that.
Societal rules have permanently been changed. These changes will reduce communicable disease transmission, sickness, and death by 90% over the next 5 years, I would guess (silver lining?...). Does that mean we should have been living this way, anyway? Love to hear some thoughts on that...
Good stuff as always.
I'm sure you've seen the recent reports of what the ramifications of not playing college football in the fall will be to other collegiate sports....pretty alarming
I agree with you on the importance of ramping up testing. If true, @YaleDawg 's hypothesis as to why so many NYC deaths considered probable occurred in hospitals is that they didn't have enough tests would be particularly troubling.
The only thing I'd potentially caveat in your scenario is the duration of the effectiveness of herd immunity. My company is one of many working on a vaccine and I learned from our epidemiologists that while the duration of antibody effectiveness isn't yet known for COVID-19 specifically, antibodies typically last a little over 6 months after first exposure to previous coronavirus strains before the virus figures out how to beat them; meaning people who've contracted the virus, built immunity and recovered could conceivably get sick after additional exposure 7 months or so after they recover.
There would be pockets of herd immunity around the country between now and a vaccine being developed but densely populated areas like NYC may indeed find another wave like they're experiencing now by Winter.
We are all in this together and economic concerns are completely valid. I'll try to answer as best I can.
1. Previous reports estimated about 2 million deaths if nothing was done. If we go back to normal with absolutely no precautions for daily life and a system in place to rapidly identify infected individuals, find everyone they exposed, and quarantine all of them, we could still hit that 2 million mark.
2. Economic downturns typically lower death rates or have a negligible effect. This holds true even during the great depression.
3. This is the real question. How far are we willing to go for public health? Open it back up fully? Open it up partially with restrictions and ease back into it? Continue with only essential employees until we have a two week period with really low numbers of new cases? Are we willing to increase taxes to pay for the programs to support those suffering? Cut defense spending and other large programs from the discretionary budget to help? Are we ok with a 2 trillion dollar deficit? 3 trillion? Are we ever going to implement a robust testing system and virus surveillance program to help us get back to work faster? We also don't know how people's immune systems respond to this which is going to affect our course action. Lots of sick and dead people also aren't good for the economy.
4. I don't think the media will have that much of an effect. I don't watch cable news and I want to get back to work, visit friends and family, and go to the store without worrying and disinfecting everything I buy.
5. No idea. I'm sure having a barrier over everyone's mouths would help a little, but people touch their faces all the time. Some people can't even wear a mask properly and you'd also have to make sure everything you bring in your home is disinfected and you have proper hygiene at all times. Lots of ways to pick up the disease still even if the mask was 100% effective.
Tough decisions will have to be made that is for sure, and it's likely whoever is president in 21 will be dealing with a recession. I don't think we can avoid that, but hopefully I'm wrong. I hope all is well with your family.
Thank you @YaleDawg .
I started looking into other coronaviruses after I read reports about potential reinfection, and it's not the most hopeful picture. The virus that causes COVID-19 is most closely related to the virus that causes SARS. People that survived SARS only had neutralizing antibodies for it for like 6-7 months. Another study looked at more common coronaviruses and found people only had protection for up to a year if they were reinfected with the exact same strain. They had limited to no protection from different strains. It's likely that people can at least generate neutralizing antibodies, but we may be only looking at a year of protection from whatever strain we get infected with. Needless to say this could pose a lot of problems for vaccine development.
No problem. Forgot to mention that you are completely right that the longer this goes the more quality of life will decline for most people. It's difficult to balance that with the virus to know when the best time to open is
May also ask your opinion on something?
What are your thoughts on the rumors going around that California may have been exposed to the virus in early January before anybody knew what it was and certainly before social distancing and other precautionswere in place? Is there any validity to the rumors or is it misinformation?
If valid, and the information about how deadly the virus is and how easily it spreads is true, why was California not harder hit?
And please, these are genuine questions I have.
Yep - for the overwhelming majority of athletic departments, their budget is LARGELY funded by football - either directly or indirectly. This goes for the secondary businesses and other organizations associated with college athletics (officials, transportation, administration, facilities, etc...).
Without a football season and it's associated revenue, many sports on campuses just die.
I am going to look at this with a lens that has no compassion, no consideration for humanity for a minute - but it my point will be connected to this idea, so bear with me.
This virus is providing a correction - it's a crucible, if you will.
In nature (and it's unbelievable intelligent - yet fallen - design) corrections can be big (extinction level events) or small (drought, ice ages, plagues), but always result in dire consequences for the weaker members of the group. Less adaptable species become extinct. Weaker genetic expression dies off. Long term you have a stronger system left behind. For mankind, most of our evolution (this word has multiple, awesome meanings) has happened culturally more so than biologically. This will be no exception - we will change, and stop doing a lot of s.tupid stuff...
In economics, corrections sometimes wipe out whole industries, weaker businesses go bankrupt, certain markets undergo wholesale changes. But other businesses will be stronger coming out of it. Too many companies were working on super-tight margins, and they probably won't survive this. That will be corrected.
College athletics are about to go through the same. It is insane for one dude to make $5 mil coaching a team. Too much big business has taken over the process. And this will provide a correction. What comes out the other side will be very different - and maybe not for the worst. Some things will pass away. It may actually turn into something that looks like amateur sports again.
Haven't heard that. AFAIK patient zero in America was a guy who had been in China visiting family in Washington state in mid January.
SC overall ranks 48 out of 50 in testing per capita but 25th in number of cases. The question is whether the lack of testing is masking the true extent of the spread? Texas, Georgia and Florida are not much better and in many ways could be worse given the high populations in those states.
Agree @Canedawg2140 .....as much as I love college football and college athletics in general....things have gotten completely out of hand in regards to spending.
Coaches salaries are ridiculous and unnecessary.....not against these men making large incomes.....but what is too large?
The facilities race is out of hand......as many on here are aware......my son and I have visited a large number of colleges the past 12 or so months.
Every single school......and I mean 100%.....have multi million dollar football projects under construction, or are within 12 months of starting construction or are within 12 months of just completing a significant project.
After completing our tour of the Alabama facility in early March, and being in complete awe of how nice and up to date it was......I was amazed to find out that their main locker was under complete renovation and that they were constructing a brand new sports science/training facility for their athletes......how much is enough. And it isn't just Alabama.
Like you said......this pandemic will force things to change....and many in a good way.
And for all those that think college athletics is full of money and needs to pay players......we are about to find out that there really isn't that much money after all......unless people want just two college sports and no female sports.
I believe that the situation on the west coast is very different to the east. Cal and Wash cases migrated from China while the east and especially the NE migrated from Europe. The sheer volume of travelers from Europe meant that the virus gained critical mass in very short order whereas imported cases were more sporadic in the west and hence easier to mitigate. I think the west will see an upturn in cases next month due to internal migration that occurred from the east mid march.
I could see that being the case. As painstaking as it may be, waiting on more complete data will tell the story. I hope a delayed outbreak in California isn't in the cards, but it very well could be.
I'm an insensitive idiot. I realize that. And I know many Americans are suffering because they have lost loved ones or have loved ones struggling with this virus......I pray every single day for the health of our country and especially those in the New York area.
But come May 1st......let's open it back up.....schools, restaurants, universities, theatres, sports etc....
Continue practicing social distancing.....but open it up.
Encourage those that want to home school to do so....
Encourage those that want to take on line college to do so.
For those at high risk or uncomfortable with being out.....encourage them to stay in if they choose. Even provide assistance if needed. (Although that will be greatly taken advantage of)
Athletes that don't want to participate in sports shouldn't have to.
But those that want to take the risk of going on living and accept the consequences should be able to do so.
If you want to see a ball game.....go see it. If you want to see a movie .....go watch it.
Unfortunately, I realize that this could cost millions of lives.....probably 1-2% of our population.....which is a huge number.....but the alternative is starting to look worse.
And the worst part is.....this virus is being used politically.....from both conservatives and liberals. What a perfect storm being in an election year.
As a conservative I know why Trump and other Republicans want to open things up. Save the economy and save their political future. The worse the economy the less likely they are to holding office.
It's becoming obvious why some Democrats don't want to open it up.....the worse the economy the better chance they have at winning....and they can push through mail in voting which is extremely fraudulent.
Republicans and Democrats are both guilty. Obviously lives matter to both parties......and I know that Trump, McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer and others don't want to see Americans die. Regardless of their affiliations....they are human.
But they also know that moving to fast or moving to slow will greatly affect politics for the next foreseeable future.
And that sucks.
Let Americans decide for themselves what risks they choose to live with.
Go Dawgs
Out here in California, I have heard lots of speculation about why California hasn't had as many cases. I have seen any concrete information. On one hand, California was the first state to implement shelter-in-place. On the other hand, because we had the first US case, thus the timeline from when California got its first case to when it implemented sheltering in place was actually a lot longer than for most other states including New York that has gotten hit so hard. Also, everyone I know, including myself and including someone who went to the ER with respitory problems could not get tested. For every country that has been successful keeping Covid19 low, testing has been a major part of the strategy and California had virtually no testing except on the most at risk patients.
So, if we had a long-time frame from first case to sheltering in place and we have had poor testing, why does California have low numbers?
The three most common things I have heard for why our numbers are low are:
So at the end of the day, no one knows. The most likely is that some combination of #2 and #3 preventing California from reaching a tipping point but it is only likely because as of now we don't have a better answer. I wonder if we will ever know, I'm definitely curious about why.
Do you realize the order of magnitude of deaths you’re talking about would be larger than world war 2? When we open it up I hope we don’t see anything near those types of numbers.
Second, if it spreads rapidly throughout the country the more susceptible won’t be protected. That many deaths will also cripple the economy. Not to mention the pressure it’s already put on hospitals within such a limited timeframe.
Politics aside, a recession/depression is almost a certainty. I know people are impatient but this is the new reality for a while.
Again, let's keep politics out of this discussion. As tough as it may be, there can be some good discussion brought here on the subject without interjecting politics into it. Warnings will be issued to those that continue and disregard what has been stated numerous times in this thread.
Thanks!!
The reason Democrats, Public Health experts and generally educated people globally don’t think an open the economy all at once is intelligent is because losing 1-2% worlds population is 100x worse than a quarter of economic slowdown.
US healthcare system cannot handle the cases it currently has. You are suggesting immensely increasing the stress on this system
It has nothing to do w Donald Trumps re-election. Globally, No one cares about him or listens to his nonsense outside of the hopeless lost-causes.
IMO- they should re-open the economy On 5/1 just for trump rallies. Decrease the surplus population