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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
Why is comparing the virus to the Spanish flu okay but comparing it to the strains of flu that come around every year isn't? The Spanish flu killed tens of millions. Covid19 has killed a couple hundred thousand, much more in line with common flu strands. What makes you feel this virus is more akin to the Spanish flu? Especially with the most recent data available?
guessing lack of vaccine and the way it transmits.
and probably how spanish flu shut the world down much like corona and and regular flu doesn't.
I think it's we are preparing for something worse, and the silver lining is that so far it hasn't been as bad death wise
I don't know anyone who died from the 1918 spanish flu.
And it's really discouraging if it's possible that things haven't advanced enough that a virus in 2020 can cause the damage of a virus from 1918.
I agree.
There are really 2 things I’m fairly sure about. Those things are we were not prepared for this and some healthcare organizations extremely “overspent” when it became a pandemic.
Neither of those, imo, has anything to do with politics. I’ll stay neutral on that.
When this reached pandemic level in US, healthcare organizations (NY area NOT included) took way too drastic measures to prepare. We spent millions preparing over a 6 week span and now we are all taking a big hit in our future income/employment because of it. DV me as much as you choose, but I can’t disclose inside information as it would likely cost me my job, but somehow, the healthcare workers who have put their lives on the line for the past 2 months to prepare for a national catastrophe are now tremendously worried about keeping their jobs.
I’m not trying to predict what Covid19 will do in the near future. I just know a lot of mistakes were made by large corporations because they didn’t really know how or what exactly to prepare for. How much of that falls into political pressure and how much on individual corporations, I don’t have a clue.
I understand this is in no way even close to anyone who has the virus or anyone who has loved ones that have the virus….. Just had to vent. God Bless all! Go Dawgs!
FWIW The total deaths after today likely totals around 49,000. The total cases as at April 14th was 610,000 and as at April 21st was 814,000. The cases 14-21 total 204,000 and fatality rates have been running (on a 9 day lag) at just over 8 % of "Cases" suggests that by 4/30 the toll will total 65,000 (62,000 in April alone) which is above the total quoted for Flu in the worst year (typically occurs over 5-6 months). With cases still running at 27,000 a day May likely starts off still running at 2100-2200 a day.
The Virginia hospitals today asked to have restrictions lifted (non-emergency surgeries keep them financially afloat) and the governor refused. That's just wrong if the medical practitioners believe they have the capacity but a politician dictates policy.
This has already happened in Georgia.
And SC...
Its not about capacity. Its about preventing transmission. Its crazy expensive to convert a normal bed to an ICU bed. Something on the order of 40K, so hospitals were never going to convert all beds. Hospitals are struggling though because of what you said with having to stop elective procedures. Its a fine line to walk.
If you don't get a rabies vaccine quick enough after exposure, you're almost guaranteed to die. Only 14 people are known to have survived the full progression of rabies. Just because its 2020 doesn't mean we can assume viruses can't be as deadly.
Yet much closer to normal flu numbers than those of the spanish flu for which I've seen estimates ranging from 20-50 million deaths worldwide.
I took his comment to mean we are more advanced as a society and better able to combat such a scenario. Your rabies example proves his point if I understood it correctly.
Again, why assume this virus is comparable to such a devastating and catastrophic event as the spanish flu when the numbers thus far don't come close to it being such and trends suggest quite the opposite?
Spanish Flu killed 675,000 in the US over 2 years. 62,000 in April suggests that unless a vaccine or cure can be found in the next 6-9 months then the Covid-19 could be similar to Spanisn Flu in fatalities.
Influenza deaths estimated by CDC for the 2018-19 season (5-6 months) was 34,200. The Covid deaths in April alone will be almost 2x that.
No, you missed the point. Just because we have advanced medically in other areas doesn't mean all viruses are now less deadly. This is a new virus with no treatments. We shouldn't assume its going to not be as bad as previous viruses just cause 2020.
So far the NYC antibody data seems to be the best. The absolute rosiest interpretation of that data using under counts for deaths you sit at 0.8% fatality rate. 8 times worse than seasonal flu and a little more than 3 times better than Spanish flu. This research is also in the preliminary stages and we need to wait for more data and test validation before drawing conclusions.
Edit: Like everyone, I sincerely hope this thing isn't as bad as we thought, but we need to temper our optimism until we have conclusive results.
Maybe I missed your point but you are clearly missing mine. The virus is obviously deadly. But what all do we have now that was not available to people in 1918? Besides advances in medicine and the vast knowledge that comes with that, we have much better ways to communicate information, we have much better access to available information which can be updated more quickly and efficiently than ever before, we have more cooperation between world leaders than ever before so collaboration is global, the average life expectancy of the world population is much higher than 100 years ago, poverty is a fraction of what it was...
I could go on forever baby (name that movie). Basically, what I'm saying is the odds of dealing with a deadly virus are stacked in our favor now versus then. I think I'll remain optimistic.