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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Your post made me take a closer look at the reporting. I chose Florida for no other reason than that's the data I am most familiar with being I live there. Allowing for the 1 day in arrears reporting (yesterday's data relates to deaths for 7/11) I found the following:

    As you can see, there are big differences (both ways) between the day reported (-1 day) and the now reported deaths for that day. The difficulty in projecting or even looking at the trend is that it is unclear whether the difference is due to:

    1. Delays in reporting total deaths. In other words, is the 218 difference in total for July due to June being under-reported. In which case should we expect some July deaths not being reported until August.
    2. The graph includes only those where the DOD is known so the 692 total is correct but only 474 has been identified by date.

    I realize that cumulative adjustments are common and to be expected periodically and that reporting was likely sporadic over the 4th weekend. However, the last 4 days as reported total 353 while the deaths on the graph show only 89 for that same period. This makes predicting very difficult as well as getting any idea about the lag from case to death.

    Again, i don't think Florida is the exception. Virtually any death graph I have seen on any states dashboard make it look like they are trending down even when numbers are increasing. Whatever the reason for this I think that the process needs to be improved so that we can all be aware of actual numbers. At the very least don't show the graphs which are clearly based on incomplete data.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Here is a good one. I previously reported my son tested positive. As of yesterday we were glad to hear he feels no more symptoms at all. He really only had a fever and body aches. On Saturday his older brother (Graduated from UF but had UGA bed linens in the dorm and is a true Bulldog) decided he needed to be tested cause he had some contact with his little brother. He went to a drive up site in Jacksonville at a local High School He checked in they got his information then a guy hands him a swab and tells him to swab inside his nostrils. He asks 'you want me to do it myself'? The guy says "yes". He says how far to I stick it in. He says pretty far but don't jab it into your brain. He told me he assumes he did it right. I am curious what the results will be.

  • BumBum Posts: 479 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Same as the test my wife did at Georgia Tech in ATL a few months back. She was crazy sick for two weeks but never had a fever, all the other symptoms, even loss of taste. Came back negative (10 min later).

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Great. Well at least the guy at the testing site has a “job.” I hope that isn’t the norm for testing in Florida. If that’s how it works then why doesn’t the State just mail everyone a test or hand them out at grocery stores?

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I think this article is more relevant, but I had to read it twice to understand the author’s statement near the end about T-cell herd immunity was merely a precautionary opinion contradicting the information in the article. Interesting that this was courtesy of NIH, so it’s Faucci’s crew. Precautionary opinions seem to be his M.O.

    Any study that shows infection does not confer immunity tells me we need to just open back up. We can’t keep closing every time there’s a new cluster of cases threatening to make a second trip around the Globe, because if that’s the case there will be a 3rd, and a 4th, and a 5th, etc.

  • christopheruleschristopherules Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I know that this is the Covid-19 2.0. thread folks. Having said that, isn't Florida really FLERIDUH????!!!!

    I mean 15,000 plus new cases??? Good grief. Geez Florida, y'all aren't even trying??? Or is it that all of y'all are just really THAT freaking stu.pi.d????? RANT OVER.

  • deutcshland_dawgdeutcshland_dawg Posts: 1,593 mod

    My sister tested positive for COVID a few days ago. She said she doesn't feel that bad and only seems to have a cough. Just hoping it doesn't get worse. Just stay safe everybody

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Update on my friends - just got off the phone. Both much better. The guy has a dry cough. Both still fatigued a bit. Both would normally be back at work pre-Covid.

    Opinion - I know some are predicting a flu/Covid double-whammy, but shouldn't all these precautions basically eliminate any spread of the flu? Or colds?

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Exactly what I was thinking. Also my son said "hope I did it right" the guy shrugged his shoulder s and said "well it seems everyone in Florida is coming back positive anyway so just be careful."

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    My wife is working at a clay county Florida hospital today. This is one that was reported to be overflowing. The head of respiratory says they have 5 total and 2 in ICU. Said it was an uptick but very manageable. Said the old directive on positives with little or no symptoms were sent home to isolate. Now the new directive is to keep them and do multiple tests till they get a negative then send home. This has caused an upswing in number of regular beds in use. Also gave an example where a girl had been tested 3 times in the past 10 days and tested positive each time , and was shown as a new positive for FL each time.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    My wife is working at a clay county Florida hospital today. This is one that was reported to be overflowing. The head of respiratory says they have 5 total and 2 in ICU. Said it was an uptick but very manageable. Said the old directive on positives with little or no symptoms were sent home to isolate. Now the new directive is to keep them and do multiple tests till they get a negative then send home. This has caused an upswing in number of regular beds in use. Also gave an example where a girl had been tested 3 times in the past 10 days and tested positive each time , and was shown as a new positive for FL each time.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    My fear is that there are a lot of false negatives from self-administered Molecular tests. I can pretty much tell you mine would be either negative or a false negative 😂

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Florida today 12,624 new cases on approx 66,000 tests giving a pos rate of 19.1%. 3,375 of the cases are in the 55+ age range. Hospitalizations (7 Day) have increased every day this month going from 179 per day to 350 per day over the 12 days. Deaths at 35 were lower but these are Sunday numbers reported today; waiting to see tomorrow's and Wednesday to see trend.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Denmen185 Just wanted to thank you for continuing to stay on top of this as best you can. I almost find the narrative behind the numbers more interesting than the numbers themselves.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    A rolling 20 and 30 day CFR would be informative. You’ve been following these numbers for long enough now that I would suppose that’s possible. I just don’t see where including the death rate from Feb-April yields an accurate model. So much has been learned.

  • christopheruleschristopherules Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    @flemingislanddawg May an Almighty, merciful and loving God continue to bless you, and your wonderful wife. Prayers for you all sir.

This discussion has been closed.