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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
Either way, you’re still talking about a very significant percentage of NYC already having exposure. That, plus the evidence on helper T cell “immunity”, and 1/4 of the population with no effects(<17), yields a a situation with a somewhat plausible explanation for the low pos test rate. This was not a policy victory. Cuomo himself said 60% (240k+} of the infections in NY occurred during quarantine.
@dawgnms Let me first acknowledge a 4% national known case fatality rate. That said, No serious epidemiologist is using that CFR in current models. Every single dynamic factor has changed since the early carnage.
Not a one off example
As a side note, our home was broken in to this weekend Fortunately, the only things I have noticed missing were a loaf of bread and a pack of hamburger buns
Yeah, but...
Given that this is a University of Georgia message board, reading this article I couldn’t help but reminisce about the final days of the Richt regime, when there was always a laundry list of legitimate excuses regarding why he wasn’t the problem.
Bamkwalker, that is bollucks, but PerroGrande wont eve see your veiled jabs at every conservatives favorite punching bag state but will go on complaining about how unfair the moderators are.
California averted the massive early case increase that New York had despite over 8000 Chinese citizens and 75000 Americans who had been to Wuhan coming in to California after the so called travel ban. That California didnt experience a New York, Florida or Arizona surge is pretty darn good given the import of the virus here so many repeated times from cruise ships and China.
The lockdown worked. California cases were low.
But what this virus has taught us is if you let your guard down, the virus will take advantage and come roaring back. Moreso than California opening too fast, the laws were not followed, especially in southern California. There was no consistency and little enforcement and the virus finds the path of least resistance, which young folks going to beaches and such gave to the virus. Now its going crazy in our prison populations and others in dense living situations.
I have a question for this thread. As most of you know, i take addressing Covid19 pretty seriously and also believe in opening up and helping our economy.
I dont understand the value in terms of Covid19, of playing only teams in your conference. I can see arguments for playing or not playing a game at all (depending on fans wearing masks, players getting tested, etc). But i dont see any benefit to playing a conference only schedule. Its not like the ACC or SEC has more or less challenges with Covid19. Are there any valid safety measures achieved by only playing conference foes?
Safety of the schools reserve funds
I was about to respond to this.....until I read @Kasey .
Never thought of that.
When a school is guaranteeing University xyz $900,000 to play them......but there is no gate money......it's difficult to justify.
And how can a school decide to go ahead and play Notre Dame but cancel Midd Tennessee State. It really can't.
Good call Kasey.
Here is an article from 247 that outlines a few reasons why the conference only schedule helps. It's mainly about consistent testing and safety standards, scheduling flexibility, and preserving conference championship games.
https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Why-conference-only-schedules-will-save-college-football-amid-COVID-19-pandemic-in-2020-149058765/#149058765_1
Did you DV my comment?
Now you also bring politics in to the discussion.
That’s two strikes against the rules of this thread.
The lockdown may have “worked”, but the reality is that California only delayed the inevitable.
It is extremely misleading to look at the raw Deaths/Cases to draw a conclusion on fatality rate of the virus. For Florida these raw numbers to date are 4,277 Deaths and 282,435 Cases giving a rate of 1.5%. However even using only a 20 day lag between case to deaths the rate is very different, The deaths so far are obviously still 4,277 but the "related' cases becomes 103,503 (total at June 23rd) giving a rate of 4.1%. Another way to look at it would be that at the rate so far there are approximately 7,500 Floridians that already have tested positive will die over the next 20 days. I do believe that the improvement in testing and treatment since April will reduce this number but still be around 4,500. The July prediction on deaths is 4,631 (currently 772) assuming that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed.
Disclaimer: These numbers could be higher depending on the number of positives behind due to the delay in processing tests.
Play nice
Nope. I've pointed out the lag in many of my earlier messages and that we will see an uptick in deaths in FL soon, and I assume anybody reading the thread has been following the discussion. I think the misleading part is not discussing the difference in death rates. For instance, after today Britain and Florida will have approximately the same amount of total cases. Britain has had about 45K deaths. Florida has had less than 10% of that amount. As I said above and many times before, FL's recent spike in cases will, no doubt, increase the amount of deaths in the coming weeks. However, I don't expect it will be anywhere close to 40K new deaths in the next month! That is what it would take to catch up. The question we ought to be asking is why? Is NHS health care less effective than US medicine? Is the virus weakening? Is it the heat or humidity? Is it vitamin D levels in the population? (My personal belief). This is a dangerous virus to catch, but it appears much, much more dangerous to catch in the winter.
@CaliforniaDawg Did we both pass freshman English in Athens?😂
>>Bamkwalker, that is bollucks, but PerroGrande wont eve see your veiled jabs at every conservatives favorite punching bag state but will go on complaining about how unfair the moderators are.<<
Honestly, I don't see discussing rates as political. If the messages I pointed out had used a statement like the one you cited (see below), I certainly would not have objected.
>>>California is the proof that opening early didn’t matter.<<<
Most of the cases for Florida have occurred over the past few weeks.
None of the current vitamin D studies have found a causal link between vitamin D levels and covid severity. A double blind study of hospitalized covid patients would need to be performed where vitamin D deficient and insufficient patients are grouped with one group given a supplement and the other a placebo. That's the only way to determine a causal link given the number of confounding variables at play.
Wish this weren't the way Covid19 cases were going in our country
I stripped out everything but the picture. The y axis is number of new C ovid 19 cases and the x axis is time. This graph shows why I am worried about selling things this fall because of how the economy will be affected. We need to have a smart Covid19 strategy that works so that small businesses like mine can survive Covid19.