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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 4,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The exponential spread can also be challenged by herd immunity. Sweden didn't mandate masks and they didn't lock down. The virus ramped to a point and then it appears to have hit the HIT (herd immunity threshold). The article I linked yesterday had an elaborate and lengthy discussion on the subject. If it wasn't HIT, it was still some type of cliff that caused it to roll over. If your spreadsheet was valid, we would have seen an exponential jump in cases in July as the virus took off in an unprotected country with a large increase in cases. I will link the Sweden graphs below again so folks can see what I'm talking about. And as I mentioned yesterday, it could also be seasonally driven.

    The virus is currently burning out and deaths are plummeting in Sweden with few countermeasures taken. In most of the places that had a really bad time with the virus--NY, Italy, Spain, UK, etc., the numbers appear to be doing the same. I would love to believe it is masks and other preventive measures, but I'm beginning to think it is actually the HIT at work. If true, FL should be peaking soon and TX shortly after. We'll see. I appreciate your work, BTW. I'm just trying to see what's really happening with CV 19.





  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 388 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Seems like they were major hotspots even though they locked down early. Started opening up in May. Maybe everyone got it.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    As far as “magical drugs”, I believe Spain, France, Italy, UK, and Sweden all used the same “magical drug.” Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Which of those countries has handled the plandemic correctly, and which has not?

    Lockdowns in Norway, Denmark, and Israel have saved lives up to now, but the list of countries to add to the same list is small. We also don’t know if their results will last.

    Interesting numbers here. The socialized medical systems of Europe currently have the highest death rates per million in the World

    Deaths per million people

    Belgium. 845

    UK 666

    Spain 608

    Italy 579

    Sweden 556

    France 462

    USA 429

    I could see Georgia losing almost as many people as it has already, but all that would really mean is we did all of this and still had the same outcome as Sweden.

    The US can catch up to the UK’s ineptitude with another 80,500 deaths, provided the UK doesn’t have another wave that adds to their totals. I can also see the US losing that many more people, but I think it will be less.

  • Old_lady_dawg_fanOld_lady_dawg_fan Posts: 813 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    We have a close friend of the family positive and ill. We're quarantined awaiting test results on my husband. At least our medical system is being forced to change for the better. I had an unrelated medical problem yesterday handled by an OTC test at home, virtual doctor visit, and pharmacy pickup without leaving my car. To me this is a vast improvement!

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • PedroPedro Posts: 261 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    The interesting data I have seen Yale dawg is the increase in number of deaths versus previous years. It shows average deaths for previous years during a period and 2020 deaths for the same period. I haven’t seen it for all of the US, but have seen it for other countries. I recall there being nyc data.

    If memory serves there has been an increase in deaths above the quoted numbers for Covid. In nyc it was believed fear of going to the hospital was leading non Covid patients to forego treatment, but in countries like Mexico it was believed there was Covid undercounting,

    Is this stuff reported anywhere?

  • PedroPedro Posts: 261 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
  • BumBum Posts: 748 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Now the good stuff is coming out! Here’s food for thought, if you want to play that kind of game. @Denmen185 @YaleDawg The policies you support (and would like to strengthen) already created TENS of MILLIONS unemployed. How many depressed? How many suicides? Checked into rehab? Needing counseling? Murders? Robberies/looting? Spousal/Child abuse? Divorces? And the list goes on. If anyone has seen preliminary studies on any of these topics please link, because it needs to be part of this conversation.

    You must be able to step out & understand cause and effect on LIVELIHOODS and lives. Literally everyone agrees we don’t want people to die, but unfortunately death is a part of life. Just as it was the last time a SARS virus circulated. So it will be the next time a virus circulates.

    Viruses have killed people since the beginning of human history. How many times in history have American jobs been CANCELLED by the GOVERNMENT? EXACTLY...ZERO. NEVER IN HISTORY. Excuse me for choking on this pill I was forced to swallow.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I am working backwards here, Yale, just reading the posts.

    And wanted to make sure that Den wasn't insisting (or maybe he was) that his stats were saying "youre gonna kill 16 people a month" if you don't stay away from people.

    That's a little over the top, IMO...

  • PedroPedro Posts: 261 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Two things and I am done.

    I would hesitate to use Sweden as good example of herd immunity in the summer. Discounting the comments about vitamin d the Swedes go to their “summer houses” , especially in July and August. This results in major reductions of people in cities, as most people take large amounts of time off outside of towns while the weather is nice. So the data may be more reflective of summer in Sweden versus herd immunity. Also the Swedes are generally much more rule oriented, so if there told to distance they do it.

    The discussion on Ebola is an interesting one to me. The countries that are having major success in now containing the virus have treated Covid like more deadly viruses. Stricter enforcement of lockdowns, early testing, better contact tracing, enforcement of lockdown for those that have tested positive, etc. These countries are having better outcomes related to virus transmission now, and consequently are seeing a better economic results. The two are not independent. Treating Covid seriously, like we would with Ebola, is critical to normalizing the economy longer term. My genuine hope would be if Ebola was going on there wouldn’t be the extreme politicization of it.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 4,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    You could be right, but let's recall the argument from the article. A certain level of the population has to become immune before the virus burns out. If you lock up, you are only delaying the cases. Assuming Sweden has hit the HIT, they should actually do much better than their neighbors going forward, especially in fall and winter.

    Do you have any concrete data on how many Swedes have summer homes, or are you speculating? That is an interesting supposition.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,619 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    For all those that want to follow the Sweden model, their economy is in as bad a shape as the rest of Europe and is currently in a virtual shutdown. The government didn't impose a stay-at-home but as the deaths continued to rise the consumers shut it down which is why the cases and deaths have declined. The key will be which economies recover the quickest. Unemployment is not caused by the shutdown it is caused by lack of consumer confidence.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 4,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Sure sounds like a lot of denial to me this morning. The charts represent facts. I can post a number of articles attacking Sweden and saying their policy would lead to disaster, but now we are getting rationalizations for why that policy shouldn't have worked, but somehow did work. The drop in disease and death rates is due to summer homes, economic depression, and that Sweden really did do a lockdown even though they have been skewered for not locking down. My advice would be for everybody to keep an open mind. Let's go where the facts take us.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Apples and Oranges. Sweden's economy is not our economy. No country in the world (China? - with a 2 billion person forced labor work force) has the flexibility and strength of our economy. And our consumer confidence is NOT the main cause of our current unemployment issues. It is what the government made us do - BY FAR. And if the government fails to provide free childcare (school) moving forward, it will continue to be the main cause.

    Again - philosophically different viewpoints. Should you have the CHOICE to stay at home, not buy or sell stuff, or should we rely on the government to tell us when the boogyman is gone...

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The economy is much more complex than that overly simplified statement. Even if your claim that it is consumer confidence that causes unemployment (big stretch) is taken as a fact, then we must assume the shutdown caused a massive reduction in consumer confidence which in turn caused unemployment to skyrocket.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    And, I thought the argument was:

    "If the virus is stopped, the economy will come back... As soon as we get cases and deaths down, we will be fine..."

    Sweden has done both. And I am being told they are in economic shambles. Like the rest of Europe.

    But, our economy was in a much better place going in. Again, apples and oranges.

    But are virus comparisons any better? We are probably much closer as a species to those folks than we are as an economy (tongue and cheek). But I have always said you should compare our STATES to those countries to get a better look.

    I think the virus has won so far in both places...

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    I need to move to Sweden. Does everyone have two houses?

    This is hard to discuss reasonably because it involves an assessment of “acceptable loss of human life” but isn’t that what we do before deciding how much money gets applied to medical research for one disease vs another?

    In theory, Covid should be a one time event, whereas other causes of death are ongoing year after year.

    How much do we spend annually trying to prevent the 650,000 heart disease deaths annually? Not any where near $2 trillion dollars

    Same question about the following:

    500,000 who die of cancer annually.

    160,000 who die of COPD

    146,000 who die of a ****

    83,000 from diabetes

    The above constitute almost 1.5 MILLION deaths a year on their own. The problem is that of the 140,000 Americans who have died of Covid, all but 6% already had one of the above medical conditions, and most had more than one of the above medical conditions 80% of the deceased are 65 or older. A quarter had already exceeded the average life expectancy of an American citizen(78.9 years)

    My question is “How many of those 140,000 plus the others to follow, were going to die within the next few years? The answer is we don’t know but it would likely have been an astonishing percentage because a huge percentage were people who were already unhealthy. Sorry, but that really does matter. This thing is not really taking out healthy people, which is why an ebola type response would not have been appropriate.

    We were NEVER going to see millions die from this, and while Sweden may not be a good measure for herd immunity, it is the poster child for doing nothing. I’ll bet Georgia has near the same number of deaths as Sweden in the end.

    Now look at the cost we’ve inflicted. The trillions spent by the Federal Govt are just the tip of the biggest iceberg in history.

    The budgets of every State and local government has been absolutely crushed, plus the loss of individual wealth and small to medium sized businesses.

    Honestly, who isn’t worried that if this continues it could result in the downfall of our civilization? Dramatic? Not in my opinion. Money is why the Soviet Union fell.

    People die. Every day. Lots of them. The excess deaths we’ve experienced this year will be made up in the next few years because those same people won’t be here to die of the above mentioned causes of death.

    If we have ever had a reason to overthrow our Govt, then this is it. Problem is, I’m not sure that’s not what’s really going on already.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Speaking of Sweden, I had a client yesterday tell me her MIL had recently died over there. She had cancer, and started suffering from dementia. She’s in her 80’s. All of the kids are spread out and nobody had power of attorney.

    So they bring the ole girl in for treatment and tell her they need to run a few tests. She asks, “Does that mean you are going to stick me?” Yes, they told her. She said, “Oh I don’t want you to do that because it hurts.” Remember, she also has dementia.

    Because she told the person she didn't want to be stuck with a needle, they labeled her as refusing healthcare and sent her back to the nursing home to die - which has since happened. The family was told there was nothing they could do because nobody had power of attorney.

    The Swedes DGAF

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Seriously? If economic downturn and deaths were the issue don’t you think we’d have the same numbers?

    I see. We don’t need a government mandate. We just need more people to die.

This discussion has been closed.