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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Would be a pity if someone with 110 posts and 80 dvs derailed a thread that is important to many of us. Teach your son what you want. Be more "measured" in what you post here. Please.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Responses like yours are how threads get derailed. You are as guilty as anyone, especially in this thread, with your little remarks about “some people” etc. Half of your posts in this thread are directed at someone, rather than about the topic. That’s not counting the posts you made about drinking and bars.

    Stop lecturing others and spare us your fake virtue while you hide from whatever your hiding from that led you to move to Central America from this great country.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I don’t think the negatives are being double counted. I also see where the other tests are backed out but your test numbers and %’s don’t match the dashboard. The case numbers are close enough, but the numbers of tests and pos% are way off.

    For instance.

    • Florida today - 50710 Tests, 10181 Cases (20.1%), 453 hospitalizations (new record) and 112 deaths. @Bankwalker Cases 2,738 (27.2%) over 55.
    • in  COVID-19 Check-in 2.0 Comment by Denmen185 July 15

    FDOH for the day in question now reports 10077 and 13.61%, which yields 74,041 tests ( 10077/.1361 ). Their total tests were 80,385 and 13,325 positives, so you can see where they backed out the extra positives and extra negatives. I just don’t see where 50710 tests and 20.1% you posted is derived.

    Another example:

    • Florida today 12,624 new cases on approx 66,000 tests giving a pos rate of 19.1%. 3,375 of the cases are in the 55+ age range. Hospitalizations (7 Day) have increased every day this month going from 179 per day to 350 per day over the 12 days. Death…
    • in  COVID-19 Check-in 2.0 Comment by Denmen185 July 13

    FDOH reports for same day 12,292 cases ( you are close enough) but only 11.53% positive. 112,000 total tests, for which 106,600 should have been first time testers (12292 / .1153 ). Are you missing 40k tests for this day, or am I making a mis...err, looking at it incorrectly?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Here are the cumulative totals for yesterday and the day before.

    Daily =7/18 minus 7/17

    According to the page YOU linked to - Top left

    Positive 337,569 - Same as spreadsheet above

    Negative 2,594,419 - that gives a total tests with results (excludes Inconclusive and awaiting results) of 2,931,988. Same as above. These are the numbers reported to the CDC.

    The daily testing data you quote is purely for that day and so includes all tests that day whether repeat or not.

    I do not make the numbers up. I take them from the Florida Dashboard to get them early. As they show up on the John Hopkins University Covid-19 Dashboard I confirm that they are the same and they always agree by days end! Unless Excel isn't correctly deducting the total on the 17th from the total of the 18th The daily numbers are what they are.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The total includes inconclusive/awaiting results so are not included in the official report submitted.

    The 11.5% agrees with the cumulative spreadsheet for 18th above.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Last word on the subject - the site you linked

    THE NUMBERS ARE THE SAME

  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    More interesting stuff from CDC in 2010. I hear people say it is false that we stopped testing and reporting H1N1 cases but read this article from the CDC paragraph 2. Still not sure why when you don't know what a virus is going to do and don't test (everyone says testing is key) why no shutdown or mask mandate. Sounds like they assumed most people thought it was regular flu and dealt with it.


    https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/estimates/April_February_13.htm

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Widespread testing was stopped later on in the swine flu pandemic for a few reasons.

    1. Most cases of flu in the US were caused by swine flu that year.

    2. Treatment was the same as regular flu.

    3. It was established that severity was on par with seasonal flu.

    Why waste resources if you know the vast majority of cases are swine flu and the treatment is the same for regular flu?

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    1). I am not accusing you of being dishonest.

    2). I haven’t asked about cumulative totals in your spreadsheet.

    3). You went on for days about the importance of daily pos% and how it meant terrible things being 20% etc.

    4). I’ ve asked you how you got those daily test numbers because they don’t match anything on FDOH own website. Your response was to point to a cumulative percentage.

    I don’t make up these numbers for FDOH. Clearly their reporting is murky.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    H1N1 Deaths totaled 12k per the CDC. Current Covid deaths 140k and rising. By the end of the month the DAILY deaths will be around 1,500 and still rising. Why would you treat the 2 viruses the same?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The third spreadsheet shows the Daily number for reported data July 18th which is the same time period as your 7/17 (reports 1 day lag as stated in your Linked data. There were not 14,159 cases reported even on your own page. The negatives plus positives on your report agrees with FLDOH, JHU, CNN extract and my spreadsheet. They are cumulative numbers counting only each person with test results once. If you use your numbers I could test 10,000 people who tested negative yesterday and end up with 100 positives. you cannot identify the spread at 1% as it would be based on a rigged sample

    You have the numbers on the screen shot, check the cumulative after it's reported today and see how many positives and negatives you get (top left) by deduction then compare with the daily chart.

  • BumBum Posts: 480 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    I appreciate the feedback, there are probably a couple posts I could have softened a little bit, but I stand by the logic behind the statements I make. You can talk down on me all you want, it truly doesn’t bother me one bit. The way I see it, you are the exact type of person that needs to read posts like mine. We could even have a discusssion...on a message board...if you were up for it???

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 4,080 mod
  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    How is the need for testing now so important then if you know a certain set of symptoms are going to be COVID 19. Everyone now are saying test and track but then it wasn't necessary? The response then was yes we know it is an epidemic so no need to track results but now we know it is an epidemic but we need to track? And how could they set a severity early with that one but not this one?

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    We know it is severe. Given the severity of the disease it is important to keep track of the spread in as close as real time as possible for appropriate responses. Early, noticeable symptoms of COVID-19 are very similar to many other diseases, so testing is important to make sure the patient gets proper treatment and follows proper isolation procedures.

    Edit: The CDC didn't stop monitoring H1N1. They just didn't require states to track every case and switched to the surveillance model used for seasonal flu.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I understand the frustration surrounding the situation. Its confusing and the logic is hard to follow if you aren't plugged in to every step along the way. Messaging has changed since the beginning of the pandemic and given high levels of mistrust for the government and The Academy in the US, its easy to believe there is some nefarious motive for these changes. Science isn't a set of facts but a process. As new evidence came forward minds were changed and so was public policy. This is what happened with public masking. New studies came out showing how effective masking was, so recommendations were updated.

  • PedroPedro Posts: 248 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Thanks Supra. These are the numbers I had seen updated. Pretty compelling and consistent across regions. Interesting the countries that bucked the trend.

This discussion has been closed.