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- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
1). I am not accusing you of being dishonest.
2). I haven’t asked about cumulative totals in your spreadsheet.
3). You went on for days about the importance of daily pos% and how it meant terrible things being 20% etc.
4). I’ ve asked you how you got those daily test numbers because they don’t match anything on FDOH own website. Your response was to point to a cumulative percentage.
I don’t make up these numbers for FDOH. Clearly their reporting is murky.
H1N1 Deaths totaled 12k per the CDC. Current Covid deaths 140k and rising. By the end of the month the DAILY deaths will be around 1,500 and still rising. Why would you treat the 2 viruses the same?
The third spreadsheet shows the Daily number for reported data July 18th which is the same time period as your 7/17 (reports 1 day lag as stated in your Linked data. There were not 14,159 cases reported even on your own page. The negatives plus positives on your report agrees with FLDOH, JHU, CNN extract and my spreadsheet. They are cumulative numbers counting only each person with test results once. If you use your numbers I could test 10,000 people who tested negative yesterday and end up with 100 positives. you cannot identify the spread at 1% as it would be based on a rigged sample
You have the numbers on the screen shot, check the cumulative after it's reported today and see how many positives and negatives you get (top left) by deduction then compare with the daily chart.
I appreciate the feedback, there are probably a couple posts I could have softened a little bit, but I stand by the logic behind the statements I make. You can talk down on me all you want, it truly doesn’t bother me one bit. The way I see it, you are the exact type of person that needs to read posts like mine. We could even have a discusssion...on a message board...if you were up for it???
Discuss it elsewhere. Patience is starting to wear thin.....
How is the need for testing now so important then if you know a certain set of symptoms are going to be COVID 19. Everyone now are saying test and track but then it wasn't necessary? The response then was yes we know it is an epidemic so no need to track results but now we know it is an epidemic but we need to track? And how could they set a severity early with that one but not this one?
We know it is severe. Given the severity of the disease it is important to keep track of the spread in as close as real time as possible for appropriate responses. Early, noticeable symptoms of COVID-19 are very similar to many other diseases, so testing is important to make sure the patient gets proper treatment and follows proper isolation procedures.
Edit: The CDC didn't stop monitoring H1N1. They just didn't require states to track every case and switched to the surveillance model used for seasonal flu.
I understand the frustration surrounding the situation. Its confusing and the logic is hard to follow if you aren't plugged in to every step along the way. Messaging has changed since the beginning of the pandemic and given high levels of mistrust for the government and The Academy in the US, its easy to believe there is some nefarious motive for these changes. Science isn't a set of facts but a process. As new evidence came forward minds were changed and so was public policy. This is what happened with public masking. New studies came out showing how effective masking was, so recommendations were updated.
Thanks Supra. These are the numbers I had seen updated. Pretty compelling and consistent across regions. Interesting the countries that bucked the trend.
What if nobody had asked any questions? How many of these are out there?
Supra, I have found the economist and FT reliable sources of information and mostly fact based reporting. I subscribe to both so it must be where I got those numbers previously. Clearly Latin America has major issues related to underreporting. If there is herd immunity I suspect they may reach it before developed countries. Didn’t see the India numbers but I imagine mass underreporting there also.
Anecdotally, there has been pretty aggressive spread in area of KC where I live. High schoolers and swim team parties have been a major source of spread. The area where I grew up in Florida has also seen major spread. While the spread has been aggressive the severity has not been. Both areas tend to skew healthier, but still below what I would expect.
Also, while deaths have been increasing, I quite frankly expected heavier losses this past week given the cases and lag. Maybe some hope on death rates? Yale, denman, too early?
As an aside some of the worst characteristics of human behavior are being exhibited. People who know they have been exposed and even awaiting test results willingly going out and exposing others. Regardless of your beliefs, personal freedoms shouldn’t extend to knowingly putting others at risk.
Patience...yes, my patience is wearing thin as well. I’ve watched for four months our small family business, in the tradeshow industry, be utterly destroyed. No govt loan was approved. Myself, my wife, father, & sister all on unemployment for the first time ever. Sister had a baby two days ago. After July 25th, we are, again, unsure what income will look like.
Am I planning to pivot a bit for future security...yes...but it’s not easy when you are all in on a business and now revenue is ZERO since March.
So...please...understand I have exercised extreme patience with all of this. The “second wave” has tradeshows cancelling into October...which is why I am concerned with the data being presented. If you want to kick me out of the thread then fine, but understand this is where I am coming from.
Can't speak to all of Latin America but ,as far as Central America, only Costa Rica numbers have any validity. Wouldn't even bother looking at them. Nicaragua is hiding the real numbers to the extent that they will not even allow private doctors or hospitals to perform tests. Govt. releases numbers weekly but everyone knows that they're just "made up" numbers.
Pretty sure I got it . Body aches, slight fever, neck glands are swollen, dry cough kicking in. I got tested Friday so I’ll know in a few days if so. Started feeling bad the day after the test.