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- Please no inappropriate usernames (remember that there may be youngsters in the room)
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- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
Juicy Lucy?
That’s only a thing in the twin cities unfortunately 😔
Seems like there are some positive signs out there right now. Cases/deaths been down the last couple days. I'm so impatient for something good to share I'm posting this after only 3 days. Totally possible it all jumps up again today/tomorrow, but i'm choosing optimism.
Hoping you and your are staying safe. I know things are tough, but this won't last forever
I'm with you @Kasey ...an N of 1 is either a new trend or an outlier in absence of more data so trying to pump the brakes on the US death # the past few days - particularly since it was a holiday weekend and there may have been a lag in reporting in some states - but with many of the big/hot zone states having reported already today, I'm cautiously optimistic that even the revised 60K projection may come down a bit more in the coming days.
Per the IMHE model updated on April 10:
4/11 - 1,907 projected v 1,830 actuals
4/12 - 1,910 projected v 1,528 actuals
4/13 - 1,895 projected v 1,357 actuals*
*1,357 = majority of states which have already published so far today - if one were to keep the 14 unreported states flat vs their reported counts from yesterday, this would add another 32 to the total (new total would be 1,389...23% lower than projected).
Nowhere close to being out of the woods yet but certainly a glimmer of hope.
Still hanging tight and healthy here. Still only 3 confirmed cases in our county. Traded a roll of TP for a full tank of gas, still have 2 half rolls behind the seat of of the truck. Hated to tap into my "out back" supply....but what the hey.....get to cruise the deserted streets.....😜
jk about the tp and cruising.....
Caution - I think it's likely that many hospitals and nursing homes didn't report updated numbers over the Easter weekend.
Today and tomorrow may have an element of catch-up.
silver lining, is new case number is dropping (albeit only 3 days so far)
No silver linings allowed. We must stay somber lest we be deemed irrational.
I fear you are right :(
I know it's difficult to imagine a return to normalcy given these daily death totals but I learned two things today that will likely make us need to make some very difficult decisions in the coming weeks and months. They are:
In short - ahead of Q4'21, our best hope is that one of the various antivirals in clinical trials currently prove effective to keep as many patients from progressing to the severe/critical stage.
All that to say: if a vaccine isn't available until Q4'21, are you prepared to shelter in-place for the next year and a half? Or are we best served isolating the most vulnerable to the best of our ability and ripping off the band-aid so to speak (?).
not sure that will work. I think we need to slowly re-open america starting May 1 and monitor the situation closely. it's just not financially feasible to keep going like this for too much longer. people are just going to need their hair cut.
in all seriousness, if things are plateauing or flattening for the remainder of April, we are just going to have to get out of the house and back to work and dam the torpedoes so to speak.
This will certainly spark some discussion...
I think you're spot on. We can't focus solely on the Covid-19 problem. The world has millions of other problems, some of which are adversely affected by the very things that are supposedly required for combating the virus. Some of which are potentially just as hazardous as the virus. Gone are the models predicting millions of American deaths. We need to adjust our reactions to the virus as better information comes out.
Also I think as the weather warms up, our immune systems might improve. I know warm weather doesn’t burn off covid, but it could help just in general.
I would try to keep large crowds to a minimum in restaurants and bars and see what happens. Of course, I don’t know much and no one is going to take my advice anyway
Not surprising. Only positive tests were used in the previous totals which will always lead to an undercount. On a typical day NYC has between 10-20 deaths in home. During the Covid spike it was over 200. None of those were being counted.
Interesting visual view of this data from the NYT article - the article states that nearly 60% of probables were hospitalized which is what surprised me. I would understand why the probable death curve was flatter if they were all deaths outside of hospitals, but I'm honestly surprised as to how many of these patients who passed away in the last few weeks - when I would expect any patient admitted to the hospital who exhibited COVID-19 symptoms would have been tested positive or negative - weren't classified as COVID-19 deaths previously.
In any case - it is promising to see the daily rates of confirmed COVID deaths continue to decrease for now.