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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 4,398 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Here is what is kind of scary--the CDC estimates that about 40% of CV 19 victims will be completely asymptomatic. All of those folks that don't think they need to wear a mask need to think about being responsible toward other people. For every six cases you hear about, with the normal range of symptoms--there are likely four other people out there with the active disease and who might not even know they are contagious.

  • MarkBoknechtMarkBoknecht Posts: 1,175 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Mia_Dade06 About four days of really throbbing/splitting headache. And followed by modest improvement of about 10% per day. Good luck and get well soon.

  • Raiderbeater1Raiderbeater1 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Doesn’t even count the mild cases/symptoms that many people ignore.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    This article was interesting. For those claiming to adapt their opinions to new information, what about studies from the University of Chicago, UC Berkley, MIT, and some fancy German school? Not exactly a republican panel there. Maybe we can start to agree that the economy needs to be freed and our resources need to be pin pointed toward high risk populations. No more fear mongering. No more attempts to get to zero deaths without considering other costs.

  • BarkingDawgBarkingDawg Posts: 1,620 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Just posting to get this thread off the tres seises

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Possibly (likely) higher.

    The questions that matter are 1) what is the reproduction potential of asymptomatic carriers, 2) do asymptomatic carriers infect people who become symptomatic, and if so, 3) are the infections they spread less likely to produce severe complications - do asymptomatic carriers carry a lesser strain?

    If asymptomatic carriers largely produce other asymptomatic carriers then they can rapidly reduce the “susceptible gene pool” of potential symptomatic infections. Asymptomatic carriers could be the key to reaching threshold. This would explain the drop in cases that has been mirrored in locales across the globe with different mitigation efforts. See Sweden, as an example. High asymptomatic infection rates will also undermine mitigation efforts where the asymptomatic spread has been underestimated, which I believe to be the case in many locales.

    The spread of the virus seems to have caught health authorities off guard. It was not only spread sooner, but also wider than previously thought, which might imply a high asymptomatic spread that largely remains asymptomatic. On a local level, the virus has even spread somewhat uniformly across the state of Georgia. How could that occur so quickly without a high asymptomatic transmission rate that stays asymptomatic in most carriers?

    40%? Maybe higher, and if asymptomatic spread produces less severe cases then the question to ask is “Should everyone REALLY be wearing a mask?”

    I suppose we don’t really know the answers to all of these questions, thus the caution, but the newer statistics suggest very mild to asymptomatic spread is outnumbering symptomatic spread in these newer “hotspots”.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Interesting article. While this was not a republican panel, how do we know these studies weren’t funded by the RNC through some shady law firm?

    Scroll down to read the comments. A person known as “nobody really” takes on the economic costs of suicides, and implies that some suicides should probably be labeled as covid related if the person tests positive for covid. The person argues the disease could be causing neurologic complications which lead to increased suicide. It seems there’s one hiding in every corner.

  • UGA_2019UGA_2019 Posts: 157 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Somebody really should tell doctors and surgeons that wearing a mask is unhealthy, I’m sure there are many studies saying as much.

    /s

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Only a fool wouldn’t understand the difference between wearing one for a few minutes vs 8 hours. And yes, there are studies showing problems, but given your preference to be uninformed....

    I really have no interest in debating someone who has an Anderson Cooper poster over his bed.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 22,139 mod

    Let’s play nice boys and girls.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I missed the theory as to why lockdowns seem to have worked in virtually every country that has taken the virus seriously. I also googled econlib as I do in every case where I read an article and suggest others do likewise.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Most of Europe where cases are now way below April level even with wider testing. Canada and Australia also. You can even add NE USA to the list where they had a coordinated and more stringent lockdown compared with the rest of the states.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I started tracking the age distribution of Florida cases June 19th. See table

    All time until 6/19 the 55+ had 30909 cases or 35.3% of the 87643 total resident cases. The 14 days 6/20 to 7/3 there were 18,283 cases representing 20.8% of the total. The 14 days beginning July 4th show the cases increasing to 37,131 (more than double) with the % cases over 55 rising to 25.2%.

    Given that the most vulnerable are our seniors, I would expect the deaths in Florida to continue to rise and exceed 200 per day by months end if not sooner.

    FWIW The last 3 days are averaging 3,084 above 55 which is just over 28% of the total cases so August is likely even higher. This could be made worse by the shortage of Remdesivir in SFL. 9,000 August deaths would not surprise me one bit.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The author of the article is a contributor to econlib, but the article was originally published in the Wall Street Journal. Per his agreement with the WSJ he posted the article on the blog to allow it to be accessed outside of the paywall (again, with the permission of the WSJ). Attacking the messenger is avoiding discussion.

    The argument isn't that lockdowns don't slow the virus. The argument is the cost of a lockdown as compared to the cost of not going into lockdown. Too many are putting on blinders to the costs associated with combating this virus. That doesn't mean the virus isn't a problem to be dealt with, but it is not the only issue in the world that needs dealing with and by focusing too intently on stopping the virus we create more issues still.

    Initially, the models suggested a lockdown was a good choice from a cost benefit standpoint. As more data comes out, that is not proving to be the case. Just as the original models had to make assumptions, so do the current models. However, the current models have real world data to guide them that simply was not available 4 months ago.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    As I said in an earlier post the proof of the pudding will be seen as States and Countries "recover".

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I thought the idea was saving lives? All of those areas have more deaths than the rest of the US per million. Why does it matter when someone dies when keeping score?

    Testing in Europe is well below the US, especially compared to areas like Florida and Georgia. It will be interesting to see what happens there. The testing rate in Europe is about the same as it was in April (lower in some countries). They are testing below 1 per 1000 a day, and cases are rising in Germany.

    Then there is Sweden and NE, where it is a legitimate thought that perhaps their current situations mirror the rest of the EU because the virus has already hit the majority of susceptible people in those areas. If it hasn’t then I don’t see how they avoid a second wave.

    Israel was successful. Now look. They were down to 5 new cases a day and were testing a lot.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The countries/areas with the high deaths had much less warning than those that are peaking today and subsequently were late in locking down.

    How many tests were run in Europe yesterday and how does the positivity rate compare? Here the US rate is skewed by over testing in the NE and woeful under testing in the sunbelt.

This discussion has been closed.